Can Astronomers Predict when a star will explode?

  • Thread starter !Jon Snow!
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In summary, stars that are 3.5 solar masses or bigger usually have a lifespan of about 100 human lifetimes. The life cycles of stars are just too long for us to be able to predict when a specific star will go supernova. However, astronomers can predict which stars might be candidates for becoming a supernova by looking at their type and spectra.
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!Jon Snow!
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Or is it too soon?
 
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In general the answer is "yes" and it is done all the time but it largely depends on your required level of accuracy and pov as a human who generally lives less than 100 years.

If a star's lifetime is measured even in one billion (1,000,000,000 or 10^9) ridiculously short for the vast majority of stars for the purpose of illustrating the vastness in time about which we are discussing, even a plus or minus 1% level of accuracy is an unimaginable number of human lifetimes.

Considering you specified "explode" this rules out those longer lasting stars of less mass. Even Eta Carinae which is calculated to have been formed around 4 x 10^6 years ago and is expected to explode in approximately 10^5 years, has "wiggle room" at even that 1% degree of accuracy (and I doubt anyone claims such high degrees of accuracies) is 1000 years, perhaps some 10-15 human lifetimes.
 
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  • #3
Hi Jon

what is your definition of being able to predict a specific star to go supernova ?

if you mean within the next year, 10, 10,000 or 1 million years, then no
The life cycles of stars are just too long
Predicting that we will see a supernova in our Milky Way in the next 50 - 100 has possibilities

OTOH, predicting which stars would be candidates for becoming a supernova is a little easier
This is done by looking at the type of star. Observing their spectra and seeing where they would be placed
on the main sequence chart
See the Hertzsprung - Russell Diagram

cheers
Dave
 
  • #4
For a star to explode it has to be at least 3.5 solar masses (size of our sun)
Betelgeuse I think is a good example
http://nightsky.jpl.nasa.gov/news-display.cfm?News_ID=560
Although Astronomers can't predict exactly when it will happen, they believe Betelgeuse is nearing the end of its lifespan. Betelgeuse is shrinking and even though they don't know why exactly, it's speculated to be a series of partial collapses. These collapses happen when a red giant burns out its hydrogen fuel and switches to other elements like helium and carbon.
By my understanding, only through observed fluctuations such as this can astronomers begin to have an idea of a range of when the individual star might die.
 
  • #5
Well, if you could detect silicon fusion occurring in the core of a star, you would know it only has about a day left before it goes boom. Similarly, if oxygen burning was occurring, it would have 6-12 months to live. The trick is being able to discern the nature of fusion occurring in the core of a star. Since the temperature required for either form of burning to occur is known, a way to measure the core temperature of a star would be helpful. Unfortunately, that too is beyond our current capabilities.
 

What is a star explosion?

A star explosion, also known as a supernova, is a powerful and catastrophic event that occurs when a star reaches the end of its life and runs out of nuclear fuel. The star then collapses and releases a tremendous amount of energy, resulting in an extremely bright and violent explosion.

Why do stars explode?

Stars explode because they have exhausted all of their nuclear fuel. This fuel is necessary to keep the star stable and prevent it from collapsing under its own gravity. When the fuel runs out, the star can no longer generate enough energy to counter its own gravity, and it collapses, triggering the explosion.

Can astronomers predict when a star will explode?

Yes, astronomers can predict when a star will explode based on various factors such as the age, mass, and composition of the star. They use various methods, including observing changes in the star's brightness and studying its internal structure, to determine the likelihood and timing of a supernova event.

How long does it take for a star to explode?

The exact timing of a star explosion can vary, but it typically takes a star millions or even billions of years to reach the end of its life and explode. The rate at which stars consume their nuclear fuel depends on their mass, with larger stars burning through their fuel more quickly and exploding sooner.

What are the effects of a star explosion?

A star explosion has significant effects on its surroundings and can impact neighboring stars, planets, and even entire galaxies. The explosion can release large amounts of radiation, produce new elements, and create shockwaves that can trigger the formation of new stars and planets.

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