Can one predict an outcome over (n) spins?

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Homework Help Overview

The discussion revolves around the statistical probabilities associated with betting on a Roulette Wheel, specifically focusing on the likelihood of hitting a selected column of numbers over multiple spins. The original poster is exploring how the number of spins affects the probability of hitting at least one of the chosen numbers.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Mathematical reasoning

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • The original poster attempts to calculate the probability of hitting numbers in a specific column across various spin scenarios. Some participants question the methodology used in simulating the spins with a die instead of an actual Roulette wheel.

Discussion Status

Participants are actively discussing different approaches to calculating probabilities, with some providing mathematical insights based on Bernoulli trials. There is an ongoing exploration of how the presence of "0" and "00" affects the outcomes, and various interpretations of the problem are being considered.

Contextual Notes

There is a lack of consensus on the best method to simulate the Roulette spins, and the impact of the additional outcomes (0 and 00) is under discussion. The original poster has requested separate probability calculations for different groups of spins, which adds complexity to the analysis.

RoundWheel
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I’m interested in following statistical question regarding the random chance of a Roulette Wheel:

Suppose I were to place a single bet on the first column of numbers (1, 4, 7,10,13,16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, 34), which pays 2-1, what is the probability that I will hit at least one of these numbers in the column in anyone of 3 consecutive spins of the wheel; 6 consecutive spins; 9 consecutive spins; 12 consecutive spins and 15 consecutive spins.

Given the statistical laws of distribution, at what point (spin :smile: # (n)) would one expect the first occurrence of one of these selected numbers appearing?

Please show probability separately for each group of spins as to clearly show the mathematical differences and how they affect the outcome.
 
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What have you done so far?
 
Lacking the use of an actual Roulette wheel, I instead used a Die trial with numbers 1 & 2 to represent column 1, 3 & 4 as column2 and 4 & 5 as cloumn 3. After 200 throws found that the maximum numbers of throws (spins) before a 1 or 2 came out was 10. However, this does not take into consideration the affect of "0" and "00" has on this event.
 
In this case, we have 38 outcomes, 2 of which are 0 or 00. Let p=12/38=6/19. Then the possibility of not hitting a number is 13/19. In three turns of the wheel we consider the Bernoulli trials: (p+q)^3. The number of no hits is q^3, so the probability of at least one hit is 1-q^3. Similarly the probabilities are 1-q^6, and 1-q^9. That is: 68%, 90%, 97% chance of at least one hit.
 

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