NewScientist: Most scientific papers are probably wrong

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the claim made by a NewScientist article that most scientific papers are likely incorrect, particularly focusing on the implications of this assertion across various scientific fields, including social sciences and others. Participants explore the validity of the claim, its implications, and the reliability of scientific research methodologies.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • One participant expresses skepticism about the reliability of scientific papers, particularly in social sciences, and invites opinions from other scientific disciplines.
  • Another participant humorously reflects on the implications of their own experimental work being referenced in scientific papers, indicating a personal connection to the topic.
  • A participant questions the logic of the claim, suggesting a paradox where if the conclusion of the paper is that most papers are wrong, then it may also be wrong, creating a circular reasoning scenario.
  • Some participants emphasize the conditional nature of the claim, highlighting the importance of the assumption that the new paper's analysis is correct.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus; instead, multiple competing views are presented regarding the reliability of scientific papers and the implications of the claim made in the NewScientist article.

Contextual Notes

The discussion reveals limitations in the assumptions underlying the claim, particularly regarding the definitions of "wrong" and the context of the studies being referenced. There is also an unresolved debate about the implications of the findings on the credibility of scientific research.

Telos
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NewScientist: "Most scientific papers are probably wrong"

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7915

Most published scientific research papers are wrong, according to a new analysis. Assuming that the new paper is itself correct, problems with experimental and statistical methods mean that there is less than a 50% chance that the results of any randomly chosen scientific paper are true.

This is no surprise to me if we are considering papers in the social sciences. But I wonder what those of you in the other sciences think about this?
 
Physics news on Phys.org
Somewhere out there, there is a paper that uses figures on the strength of a certain dental material that were obtained by me in my garage. I find that to be rather scary! :biggrin:
 
Ivan Seeking said:
Somewhere out there, there is a paper that uses figures on the strength of a certain dental material that were obtained by me in my garage. I find that to be rather scary! :biggrin:

:mad: :mad: :mad: And I built my garage with that dental material!
 
Pengwuino said:
:mad: :mad: :mad: And I built my garage with that dental material!

As long as you don't bite it you'll be fine. :biggrin:
 
mmm... that might be hard. I didn't have a lot of plaster... so i used cookie dough.
 
Telos said:
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7915

Most published scientific research papers are wrong, according to a new analysis. Assuming that the new paper is itself correct, problems with experimental and statistical methods mean that there is less than a 50% chance that the results of any randomly chosen scientific paper are true.

This is no surprise to me if we are considering papers in the social sciences. But I wonder what those of you in the other sciences think about this?
This result was obtained in a scientific research paper. The results of scientific research papers have a greater than 50% chance of being wrong. Therefore, there is a greater than 50% chance that the conclusion is wrong. This implies that there is actually not a greater than 50% chance that it is wrong. Since it is probably not wrong, then the conslusion is probably true, which means it is probably wrong... :confused:
 
Yeah, emphasis on the "assuming that the new paper is itself correct" in the original article.
 

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