NewScientist: "Most scientific papers are probably wrong"

Telos

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7915

Most published scientific research papers are wrong, according to a new analysis. Assuming that the new paper is itself correct, problems with experimental and statistical methods mean that there is less than a 50% chance that the results of any randomly chosen scientific paper are true.

This is no surprise to me if we are considering papers in the social sciences. But I wonder what those of you in the other sciences think about this?

Ivan Seeking

Somewhere out there, there is a paper that uses figures on the strength of a certain dental material that were obtained by me in my garage. I find that to be rather scary!

Pengwuino

Quote by Ivan Seeking

Somewhere out there, there is a paper that uses figures on the strength of a certain dental material that were obtained by me in my garage. I find that to be rather scary!

And I built my garage with that dental material!

Ivan Seeking

Quote by Pengwuino

And I built my garage with that dental material!

As long as you don't bite it you'll be fine.

Pengwuino

mmm... that might be hard. I didn't have a lot of plaster.... so i used cookie dough.

LeonhardEuler

Quote by Telos

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7915

Most published scientific research papers are wrong, according to a new analysis. Assuming that the new paper is itself correct, problems with experimental and statistical methods mean that there is less than a 50% chance that the results of any randomly chosen scientific paper are true.

This is no surprise to me if we are considering papers in the social sciences. But I wonder what those of you in the other sciences think about this?

This result was obtained in a scientific research paper. The results of scientific research papers have a greater than 50% chance of being wrong. Therefore, there is a greater than 50% chance that the conclusion is wrong. This implies that there is actually not a greater than 50% chance that it is wrong. Since it is probably not wrong, then the conslusion is probably true, which means it is probably wrong...

Telos

Yeah, emphasis on the "assuming that the new paper is itself correct" in the original article.

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Ivan Seeking Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus	Somewhere out there, there is a paper that uses figures on the strength of a certain dental material that were obtained by me in my garage. I find that to be rather scary!

Pengwuino Recognitions: Gold Member	mmm... that might be hard. I didn't have a lot of plaster.... so i used cookie dough.

Telos	Yeah, emphasis on the "assuming that the new paper is itself correct" in the original article.