I see, A and B are there just to represent the 50% that will not get sick in the original population A,B,C,D. (There is no difference between A and B.)
You are just left with A (well), B (well) or C (sick-no symptoms) if you do not show symptoms (D).
"Okay, I got my answer: you can't cut the odds to 1/4. Once you know you have a 1/2 chance of having the flu, you can be viewed as a person selected at random from the following population:
Where C and D have the flu.
Now let's say you know that only D shows symptoms. Now what is...
If I word it to where 99.999% of people show symptoms within the first 2 days, and I make it to day 3 without any synptoms, it shouldn't make any difference. I would still be at the original 50% chance.
But it sure would seem like I would be in a lot better shape than the...
Say I were exposed to someone who has the flu. And the chance of me getting sick were 50% from being exposed to that person.
Now, say 50% of the people who actually have the flu virus develop symptoms within the first 2 days. I make it up to day 3 without any symptoms. I think I should be...