# Search results

1. ### Combination probability of variables that are not independent

Thanks Chiro, sounds like I have a lot of reading and learning to do! I'll check back into this thread with an update (and maybe another query if ok/needed?) Thanks very much! Basil
2. ### Combination probability of variables that are not independent

Thanks Chiro, My thought was that if I could get the touch downs right, I could then do it for field goals and any other scoring types similarly. By combining each of these and multiplying by points value, I could effectively evaluate the supremacy in total points. A friend can help with...
3. ### Combination probability of variables that are not independent

Thanks very much for your response chiro. I'll be honest - a lot of what you wrote is a bit beyond my understanding, even after looking up the terms you used. I've attached some data and analysis I did as an example (zipped as was over 100k). I modeled touchdowns of home and away teams...
4. ### Combination probability of variables that are not independent

Thanks for responding. Well, it's not entirely conditional, but it is affected by it to varying degrees. So what I'm struggling with is how to measure this affect between the two, and how to apply the measure to the statistics. Any ideas on that? Many thanks.
5. ### Combination probability of variables that are not independent

Hello, I'm hoping I might be able to get some help in creating a forecasting model (in sports) looking at 2 variables that are not independent of each other. I'll take US Football (same applies to rugby) as an example. The specific forecast I'm interested in here is the expected supremacy...
6. ### MHB Kelly when splitting bet into multiple multis

Thanks for the welcome and for the tip Jameson! Since writing the post, I've got a slightly better understanding. There are two options: 1. Accept that going through Kelly to guide staking for multiples, I'll be reducing my ROI by the likelihood of the secondary bets losing 2. I can use Kelly...
7. ### MHB Kelly when splitting bet into multiple multis

Hi, Please forgive any bad forum etiquette - I'm a newbie! I'm trying to figure out a staking system for when I group different bets together into multis, but I can't get one that makes mathematical sense to me. I'll illustrate an example. There are 4 bets to consider: A - Odds: 1.85, True...
8. ### Not quite Poisson - how do i derive a transform pdf/cdf?

Thanks Stephen. Really appreciate you getting deep into this problem and specialised topic. I've tried to add a bit to your response below to help clarify for yourself or anybody else who is interested. I'll try to simplify: - I have a distribution (X) that works (binomial, n=33) for total...
9. ### Not quite Poisson - how do i derive a transform pdf/cdf?

Thanks for the feedback and link... it's been 13 years since I saw SAS code! Sorry for not being clearer on my intended use of the data. I think I can clear that up pretty quickly... Let's say the 'events' I've been referring to and have data for represent the number of touchdowns in a US...
10. ### Not quite Poisson - how do i derive a transform pdf/cdf?

Thanks for supporting Stephen. Indeed, I meant to have been stating PMF rather than PDF (it's been a long time since I studied stats!). Regarding the point: This isn't actually an academic piece of work - I'm actually looking to use the derived distribution to model the probability of the...
11. ### Not quite Poisson - how do i derive a transform pdf/cdf?

Thanks so much for the reply and thoughts Stephen. The binomial does help to reduce the error - but in fact flips it in the other direction (using the assumptions I applied) - results somewhere between poisson and binomial is what is desired. I already use the binomial to model other elements...
12. ### Not quite Poisson - how do i derive a transform pdf/cdf?

Hello, I'm looking at some sporting data (similar to goals in a match) and trying to figure out what distribution applies to their count per match. Typically, Poisson is used in the industry to model the distribution. When I look at the historical events, poisson isn't too bad, but tends...
13. ### Modelling distribution and deriving probability of occurance being within a value

Thank you so much for the response. Sorry for being naive on this, but I don't quite understand what you mean by 'on the right' - are there any examples on the web of something similar being done? Basil
14. ### Modelling distribution and deriving probability of occurance being within a value

Hiya, I have been looking at a problem, and just can’t get my head round the right way to tackle it. I have a whole heap of data for an airline showing the taxy duration of each of their flights (this is the time taken to go from the gate to actual lift off). As I see it, there are 3...