- #1
iDimension
- 108
- 4
Hello, I have a question and hope you can help. If you understand forex trading you might be able to give a more informative answer, or maybe it's just pure math, who knows.
I wanted to ask your opinion of 100% random trading. So on my platform I have 9 currency pairs selected and I use a random number generator ranging from 1 - 9. Whatever number it lands on that is the currency pair I will be trading. Then I will roll another random number and if it's 1 then I'll sell, if it's 2 then I'll buy.
I will run this 3 times producing 3 different trades. Then I'll set a stop loss of 50pips and a take profit of 150pips and just leave all 3 until the market takes them out. Wait 24 hours and repeat.
So with my understanding if all 3 trades lose then I will lose 150pips but even if 1 of them wins then I will make profit.
I mean at the end of the day it's completely random... I may get lucky and select 3 awesome trades that are doing amazing. I may select 3 trades that do terribly. Although over the long run should this not make money?
This is purely a thought I know it's probably a bad idea otherwise everyone would be doing it but can someone tell me where the flaw lies because I cannot see one.
The only thing I can think of is that -50 is 3 times closers to 0 than 150 is so you're 3 times more likely to lose... meaning over a very long time, you'd even out at 50% win 50% lose?
I mean at the end of the day a trade can only move up or down. So it's 50/50 whether you guess this correctly.
I wanted to ask your opinion of 100% random trading. So on my platform I have 9 currency pairs selected and I use a random number generator ranging from 1 - 9. Whatever number it lands on that is the currency pair I will be trading. Then I will roll another random number and if it's 1 then I'll sell, if it's 2 then I'll buy.
I will run this 3 times producing 3 different trades. Then I'll set a stop loss of 50pips and a take profit of 150pips and just leave all 3 until the market takes them out. Wait 24 hours and repeat.
So with my understanding if all 3 trades lose then I will lose 150pips but even if 1 of them wins then I will make profit.
I mean at the end of the day it's completely random... I may get lucky and select 3 awesome trades that are doing amazing. I may select 3 trades that do terribly. Although over the long run should this not make money?
This is purely a thought I know it's probably a bad idea otherwise everyone would be doing it but can someone tell me where the flaw lies because I cannot see one.
The only thing I can think of is that -50 is 3 times closers to 0 than 150 is so you're 3 times more likely to lose... meaning over a very long time, you'd even out at 50% win 50% lose?
I mean at the end of the day a trade can only move up or down. So it's 50/50 whether you guess this correctly.