Apophis 2036?

  • Thread starter anthromom
  • Start date
I would like to hear speculation about Apophis and its possible impact with the Earth in 2036. I am particularly interested in whether earthlings can change the orbit of Apophis if we need to. Is it possible to rendezvous with an incoming asteroid? How fast is this asteroid traveling?
 
I don't mean to completely discredit apophis but I thought that it was deemed that apophis had a 1/12 million chance of catching the "gravitational keyhole" in 2029 that would set up a collision, thus rendering it a 0 on the Torino scale. I do remember roughly two years ago this seemed to be a hot topic. I think apophis was a 4 on the Torino scale at one point, for what it's worth.

this website seems to be a credible source, and is a pretty interesting read

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/
 
Last edited:

Nabeshin

Science Advisor
2,204
16
As far as altering the path of apophis, assuming an initial impact trajectory, it is very difficult. All the methods I've heard described (nuclear weapons, attachment of rockets, gravitational redirection) are either impractical or simply do not work. Looks like apophis has an average orbital velocity of ~30km/s, coupled with a mass of about 10^10kg, the thing is damn hard to move.

Edit: Ignore this in light of what Hurkyl pointed out. Didn't read the above article.
 
Last edited:

Hurkyl

Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
14,847
17
As far as altering the path of apophis, assuming an initial impact trajectory, it is very difficult. All the methods I've heard described (nuclear weapons, attachment of rockets, gravitational redirection) are either impractical or simply do not work. Looks like apophis has an average orbital velocity of ~30km/s, coupled with a mass of about 10^10kg, the thing is damn hard to move.
This directly contradicts the link given by the previous poster, which states that simply placing an 8 kilogram, 17,000 square foot reflective "sheet" on the asteroid would be enough to deflect it over 4000 miles.
 
At 30 km/s, is it possible to land on Apophis and place reflective sheets there?
 
I don't mean to completely discredit apophis but I thought that it was deemed that apophis had a 1/12 million chance of catching the "gravitational keyhole" in 2029 that would set up a collision, thus rendering it a 0 on the Torino scale. I do remember roughly two years ago this seemed to be a hot topic. I think apophis was a 4 on the Torino scale at one point, for what it's worth.

this website seems to be a credible source, and is a pretty interesting read

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/
Your own source says "less than 1 in 45,000," which is many orders of magnitude more likely than "1/12 million."
 

HallsofIvy

Science Advisor
Homework Helper
41,682
864
At 30 km/s, is it possible to land on Apophis and place reflective sheets there?
Once you have matched speeds with it, its (relative) speed is 0. That has nothing to do with how difficult it is to land on it.
 
Your own source says "less than 1 in 45,000," which is many orders of magnitude more likely than "1/12 million."

Glad you read it. Thanks for pointing that out...
 

Related Threads for: Apophis 2036?

  • Posted
2 3
Replies
54
Views
21K
  • Posted
Replies
1
Views
3K
Replies
57
Views
7K
Replies
4
Views
4K
Replies
5
Views
3K

Physics Forums Values

We Value Quality
• Topics based on mainstream science
• Proper English grammar and spelling
We Value Civility
• Positive and compassionate attitudes
• Patience while debating
We Value Productivity
• Disciplined to remain on-topic
• Recognition of own weaknesses
• Solo and co-op problem solving
Top