Artemis 1 going to the Moon (launched Nov 16)

[.Scott]

Regarding the Tuesday, Sept 27th:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145524.shtml?mltoa34#contents

 

[.Scott]

From Fox Weather:

NASA is hoping to launch on Sept. 27 at 11:37 a.m. EDT. However, that launch window was not entirely up to the space agency. NASA first needed approval from the Space Force, which oversees the Eastern Range, to extend the Flight Termination System certification due to safety requirements. The FTS is required on all rockets and would cause the vehicle to self-destruct if it veers off course and threatens the public.

SLS chief engineer John Blevins shared the good news on Friday that both the Sept. 27 and Oct. 2 backup date were approved by the Space Force.

They have the Space Force waiver. So if they return to the VAB, it'll for the tropical storm, not the FTS.

 

[.Scott]

Ars Technica has an interesting article about NASA's plans .

But one caution: The article talks about FTS "battery life" but during the Wednesday live feed it was explained that the FTS waiver issue was not really a "battery life" issue.

What is interesting in the article is that NASA is prepared to leave SLS out in the open during a Tropical Storm (but not a hurricane).

Quoting from the article:

So what is the upside of risking the rocket and spacecraft , which were developed at a cost of more than $30 billion, in a tropical system? By waiting out the weather NASA is seeking to preserve an opportunity to launch on September 27 or October 2. Failing that, it will need to roll back to the hangar regardless.

Doing so would likely push the next launch attempt into the second half of November. "Some life-limited items would be coming up in that case," Blevins said. This appeared to be an admission that for NASA, the clock is ticking on a rocket that has been fully stacked for launch for nearly a year now, and which has critical parts that cannot be serviced in that configuration. In short, NASA officials would very much like to get off the pad as soon as possible.

I can't help noting that Elon recently mentioned November as well.

 

[mfb]

Weather criteria for Artemis 1

Do not launch if the peak liftoff winds exceed a range of 29 knots through 39 knots between 132.5 feet and 457.5 feet, respectively.

Do not launch through upper-level wind conditions that could lead to control problems for the launch vehicle.

Do not launch through precipitation.

"Tropical storm force" winds are >34 knots, so the risk of exceeding the first wind speed limit for the Tuesday launch window is pretty small. Most likely they'll never get TS winds at the launch pad (~30% risk according to the forecast), and even if they do it's probably after the end of the launch window. The other criteria are worse, with just a 20% chance of acceptable weather overall.

Will be interesting to see how this develops.

 

[.Scott]

Just to keep in suspense, Tropical Storm Ian has now slowed. Per todays 11am forecast chart below, tropical force winds will arrive at the launch site after 8pm Tuesday.

Will Ian allow the launch or won't it? Stay tuned...

Actually, it could become even more suspenseful than that. On Tuesday night, Ian might be creating conditions unsafe for an unsheltered SLS. So if NASA shoots for that 70 minute window on Tuesday and the launch is scrubbed, we could be watching a Goliath racing to the VAB.

 

[.Scott]

Apparently, that would be too much drama for NASA.
The Tuesday, September 27 launch is scrubbed.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2022...ve-off-sept-27-launch-preparing-for-rollback/

They will decide on whether to return SLS to the VAB tomorrow.

 

[mfb]

They will decide on whether to return SLS to the VAB tomorrow.

Looks like they want to keep an October 2 launch an option if the storm moves away, but it's likely they'll go back to VAB.

 

[.Scott]

As @mfb noted, the Tuesday launch is unscrubbed - but still far from a certainty.
Hurricane Ian has not moved that much and tropical force winds are not expected at the cape until early Wed. morning - perhaps time to move SLS to the VAB after the launch window has expired.

NASA has postponed a final decision until today.

 

[.Scott]

NASA will roll the Artemis I Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft back to the Vehicle Assembly Building on Monday, Sept. 26. First motion is targeted for 11 p.m. EDT.

It is possible that Starship will launch first. If that happens, it would mean that the SLS would never launch as the most powerful rocket. Both Starship and SLS are parts of the Artemis program and, per current plans, both will be used in the first return of astronauts to the moon in 2025.

 

[mfb]

The following launch window would be October 17 – October 31 but they are unlikely to make that, so we are probably looking at November 12 – November 27 with a backup launch window of December 9 – December 23. They got the FTS extension this time, so I assume they can get it again - preparing for a November 12 launch would give them up to 6 actual launch attempts, three per window. Hurricane frequency should go down.

 

[.Scott]

The SLS just arrived at the VAB - so it is now safe from the weather.
With SLS at the VAB, NASA should be able to get caught up on all the scheduled servicing - including the FTS. So I do not expect that they will need an FTS extension.

Edit:
NASA just posted another SLS update:
https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2022...craft -arrive-at-vehicle-assembly-building-2/

And they do mention the replacement of all FTS batteries as part o their planning.

 

[mfb]

They replace the batteries before returning to the launch pad of course - but if they replace them e.g. November 7 then the original 20 days would only cover the end of the November launch window. We could run into the same situation as earlier this month, 2-3 failed launch attempts and the question if the rocket can stay on the pad until the December launch window. Probably yes, because the batteries used in November shouldn't be worse than the batteries installed in August.

 

[.Scott]

They replace the batteries before returning to the launch pad of course - but if they replace them e.g. November 7 then the original 20 days would only cover the end of the November launch window. We could run into the same situation as earlier this month, 2-3 failed launch attempts and the question if the rocket can stay on the pad until the December launch window. Probably yes, because the batteries used in November shouldn't be worse than the batteries installed in August.

Somewhere in the NASA coverage I read that if it gets into December, they run into a long list of booster devices expiring - and thus more time in the VAB. Perhaps the "planning" they are doing now will take greater advantage of the VAB visit than just the FTS.

 

[.Scott]

From inverse.com.

NASA is coordinating several factors to see what’s the best choice for the next launch target. A launch in October, as early as next week, is not off the table. But Jim Free, associate administrator of NASA’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate, suggested it’s unlikely. Free told reporters he didn’t want Artemis I to return too quickly to the launchpad without first addressing “limited-life items” that need periodic reassessment.

Free also said the team prefers to do a daytime launch, but November’s launch opportunities wouldn’t support that.

 

[mfb]

Teams Confirm No Damage to Flight Hardware, Focus on November for Launch

Somewhere in the NASA coverage I read that if it gets into December, they run into a long list of booster devices expiring - and thus more time in the VAB. Perhaps the "planning" they are doing now will take greater advantage of the VAB visit than just the FTS.

They have already extended that twice, November vs. December is probably not making a big difference. If they have to re-stack it then it's going to be a long delay.

 

[OscarCP]

The whole going to the Moon and, or to Mars has been proposed by one government and scraped by the next for some other program to the other destination, ever since Jimmy Carter was President of the US.
This latest version, Artemis, brought to us by NASA, has got as far as having a concrete objective: the Moon, and a concrete space vehicle, now being tested. Or attempting to be tested.

Personally, I prefer for this to start on the Moon and learn there how to live in a place that is trying to kill you every second you are there, but is a lot closer than Mars, who is just as bad as a place to go and visit, but also with the con of higher gravity and, that I can tell, no obvious pro that cannot also be said of a robotic and thus essentially cheaper mission than one with a crew.
So, for example, if a member of the crew on the Moon gets sick in a way that is beyond what can be treated up there, it is possible, at least in principle, to send the patient back to Earth to receive adequate treatment in a matter of maybe four days.
And also far easier to get supplies from Earth and to send back whatever is worth sending back, while staying in radio and video contact with people down here two-way, with just a two-second delay altogether.

Once that has gone on for long enough and the necessary technology for a more intensive occupation of another unfriendly but also far more distant world becomes available, in part thanks to what has been learned on the Moon, then maybe go to Mars.

I also agree that developing reusable boosters, as for example the SpaceX ones, is the way to go.

 

[.Scott]

Staying up past midnight on a Sunday?

NASA is targeting the next launch attempt of the Artemis I mission for Monday, Nov. 14 with liftoff of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket carrying the Orion spacecraft planned during a 69-minute launch window that opens at 12:07 a.m. EST. Artemis I is an uncrewed flight test to launch SLS and send Orion around the Moon and back to Earth to thoroughly test its system before flights with astronauts.

Less than 5 weeks away.

Meanwhile:
For the first time in more than six months, SpaceX has stacked both stages of its next-generation Starship rocket, creating the largest and most powerful launch vehicle ever fully assembled.

In the "also ran" category: a Falcon Heavy is due to launch later this month.

 

[.Scott]

I just noticed that the mission duration has also shortened:

A launch on Nov. 14 would result in a mission duration of about 25-and-a-half days with a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean Friday, Dec. 9.

 

[mfb]

There is a Falcon 9 launch planned for mid November (9.-15.), sending a bunch of payloads towards the Moon, including at least two rovers and an orbiter. We might get two missions to the Moon within days of each other, and very likely pictures with both being on their respective launch pads.

 

[berkeman]

There is a Falcon 9 launch planned for mid November (9.-15.), sending a bunch of payloads towards the Moon, including at least two rovers and an orbiter. We might get two missions to the Moon within days of each other, and very likely pictures with both being on their respective launch pads.

Lordy, so many projects going on at the same time now. Is there a Cliffs Notes summary web page somewhere that shows the status of all of the different launch efforts? It seems like there are 5-10 different efforts going on right now simultaneously in different states of preparation...

 

[.Scott]

Is there a Cliffs Notes summary web page somewhere that shows the status of all of the different launch efforts?

How about just a list of up coming launches:
https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/

 

[Tom.G]

And don't forget the Lunar eclipse on Nov 7 or 8 if you are anywhere near the Pacific ocean.

Total from about 30°N in much of N. America, partial as far S. as S. America, and Australia.

https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/usa/los-angeles

 

[mfb]

Lordy, so many projects going on at the same time now. Is there a Cliffs Notes summary web page somewhere that shows the status of all of the different launch efforts? It seems like there are 5-10 different efforts going on right now simultaneously in different states of preparation...

Wikipedia
SpaceflightNow
Next Spaceflight
Different levels of detail and inclusion criteria but important launches or launches in the next week are covered by all.

 

[.Scott]

NASA is planning the SLS roll out this Friday (Nov 4) with a launch in 2 weeks (Monday, Nov 14).

 

[mfb]

Roll-out was successful. There is a weather pattern that's expected to form a storm in the next days. Potentially moving to Florida.

 

[Tom.G]

It seems they just can't catch the wind in their sails for this one.

 

[.Scott]

I want to be optimistic. But Boeing has been making this very hard for me:
We will have a perfect SLS launch this month.
We will have a perfect SLS launch this month.
We will have a perfect SLS launch this month.

 

[mfb]

It's now subtropical storm Nicole.

SLS is expected to stay on the launch pad as hurricane-strength speeds are unlikely. SpaceX has delayed a launch of geostationary satellites to Saturday, waiting for the storm to pass.

 

[mfb]

NASA Prepares Rocket, Spacecraft Ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole, Re-targets Launch to November 16. A bit more time for people to return after the storm, inspect the rocket and so on.

There are launch opportunities until November 27 so up to three launch attempts are still possible, but the third one would collide with thanksgiving (Nov 24).

 

[berkeman]

the third one would collide with thanksgiving

In the famous words of Jose Jimenez (on the Ed Sullivan Show), "Oh I hope not..."

 

[mfb]

Nicole started moving away and getting weaker, but winds were stronger than expected - it looks like they temporarily exceeded the design ratings of the rocket. A former Space Shuttle engineer expects weeks of inspections and computer simulations to determine if the rocket is still fine in that case. As far as I understand that would also involve moving the rocket back to the VAB again, exchange the batteries again, re-certify the boosters for an even longer time in stacked configuration, ...
Here is a longer discussion and here is the Twitter thread discussing how NASA deals with violated specifications.

Launch opportunities:
* Until Nov 27
* Dec 9 to 22
* Jan 7 to 20
* Feb 3 to 17
Calendar

 

[Borg]

Where's Ralph Kramden when you need him?

 

[.Scott]

If they need to return to VAB, they may need to evaluate the status of the solid rocket boosters.
I believe the they are scheduled to "expire" in December.

 

[mfb]

We've been trying to reach you about your rocket's extended warranty.

"When you stack your first segment on the aft segment, you start a clock that was originally 12 months," Lanhan said. "It's currently been analyzed up to 23 months, and that expires. One piece expires on the ninth of December of this year, and the other one is the 14th of December of this year."

Another environmental exposure rating expires on Dec. 15, he added.

It's very likely they can extend these certifications to December 22, but it's not getting better.

Wind speeds reached 100 mph, which is definitely more than it was rated for, but there are no signs of damage:

NASA says camera inspections show very minor damage and still plans to launch the Artemis One rocket on Wednesday.

 

[.Scott]

Yesterday afternoon, NASA posted that SLS had been inspected after Nicole and is clear to launch.
So the launch date is still NET Wednesday (Nov 16 ).