1. Ely is on a 1000-calorie/day diet which she has been strictly following for about 2 weeks now. Thelma, her college buddy, is in town, though, and she has brought with her Ely’s favorite chocolate from their college town. Ely has a real weakness for chocolates and she will eat any type as long as it does not have any liquor in it. If Thelma brought a box of thirty indistinguishable chocolate nuggets (each one having 50 calories) and there are equal amounts of the 6 flavors—orange, hazelnut, rum, strawberry, almond and praline—what is the probability that she will consume 80% of her calorie allowance for the day on Thelma’s chocolates before she gets a rum-flavored chocolate?
The Attempt at a Solution
Right so I know that the chances of getting a rum chocolate are at 17% to start off. And thne with each chocolate taken it decreases accordingly; i.e. 5/29, 5/28, etc. And that ely can take 16 chocolates before she goes over her diet
But I am not sure how to put it all together. I am not really looking for the blatant answer but more the process to find the answer. Obviously this is very basic probability and the actual math is not challenging.