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News Battle for Delegates

  1. Mar 14, 2012 #1

    Evo

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    As of today, here is how the known delegates have been dealt out. Of course there are more delegates to be had, so I though it might be interesting to watch. We can post thoughts and updates.

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/74002.html

    In descending order

    Romney - 495 Before Tuesday - 454

    Santorum - 252 Before Tuesday - 217

    Gingrich - 131 Before Tuesday - 107

    Also running - Paul - 48 Before Tuesday - 47

    In an article yesterday

    http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...ma-primaries-maintain-delegate-104949201.html
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Mar 14, 2012 #2
    Just some points to make.

    1. Gingrich, while complaining that moderate Republicans feel obligated to inevitably support Romney, Gingrich has a high self-entitlement to be anti-Romney, when the people have already chosen Santorum to be anti-Romney.

    2. Gingrich is not quitting because its in his nature to be persistent, but he is only making an embarassment of himself and impeding his party.

    3. Ron Paul has no chance of winning. His campaign is largely stagnant, and he avoids half of the states.

    4. Romney is the only candidate able to win the nomination. Sure, it's easy to knock off Romney from his frontrunner status for a day or two, but becoming that frontrunner for more than one day is a big difference.

    5. Romney has a national campaign whereas the other candidates are only able to strategically win a few important states. But overall, in all states, Romney outcampaigns them all.
     
  4. Mar 14, 2012 #3
    I expect Romney to have the requisite number of delegates going into the convention to gain the nomination on the first ballot.

    The territories of Guam, US Virgin Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa send 9 delegates each to the Republican convention. Together, they account for 36 delegates, less than Minnesota with 37. With all due respect, it should be less than Minnesota. After all, 48,916 voters participated in Minnesota's primary while the total number of voters in these 4 territories was 1517. In American Samoa, there were 70 voters for 9 delegates. Of these 36 delegates, Romney gets 34, Paul gets 1 and 1 is uncommitted. I think the lot of them should be committed. Don't forget, territories don't vote in the general election. With arithmetic like that, 4 years from now we may see a Democrat win the Republican nomination.
     
  5. Mar 14, 2012 #4
    Romney's win in the islands prove my points.

    Gingrich and Santorum do not have a strong enough organization and resources to campaign everywhere, but only in a handful of strategic states. Everywhere else, they can't compete. That's why Romney won the islands.
     
  6. Mar 14, 2012 #5
    It's not clear to me what organization any of the candidates had in the territories. Matt Romney, son of one of the candidates, was actually in the Northern Marianas Islands campaigning for his father. On the other hand, Elizabeth Santorum, daughter of a different candidate was in Guam campaigning for her father.
     
  7. Mar 14, 2012 #6

    Office_Shredder

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    The delegate counts are only estimates at best. The caucuses don't result in bound delegates necessarily, and are often just straw polls. One example is Maine where each caucus meeting has two parts - voting for candidates, and selecting delegates. Ron Paul says that his campaign is the only one that understands the delegate procedure, resulting in a lot of people voting in the straw poll but not actually sticking around to have a say in who is a delegate. Sometimes this is legitimate (e.g. just proposing a re-ordering of what is done when so people can just vote and leave without picking delegates) sometimes less so, for example

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/10/pauls-georgia-partisans-grab-gingrich-turf/

    This can have two effects:

    1) if delegates aren't bound they can vote for whoever they want at the convention regardless of what the voting says

    2) if delegates are bound they're typically only bound for a finite number of votes (for example in the article above it says Georgian delegates are bound for three votes). So if the convention is brokered after a couple of votes Paul might be getting a lot more votes than previously.
     
  8. Mar 20, 2012 #7

    Evo

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    As of march 18th

    In descending order

    Romney - 516 Previous 495

    Santorum - 236 Previous 252

    Gingrich - 141 Previous 131

    Also running - Paul - 66 Previous 48

    Seems Santorum has gone down. Of course some delegates are up for grabs.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

    Ron Paul should just drop out. Anything short of all of the other contenders dying, he has no chance. Of course he doesn't care, it's not his money. IMO to all. I'd rather see Paul than Santorum, since neither have a chance of the Presidency, Paul is a tad less scary, IMO.
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2012
  9. Mar 20, 2012 #8

    Gokul43201

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    Paul has only half the delegates that Gingrich has, so Paul should drop out. But Gingrich has only half the delegates that Santorum has, so Gingrich should drop out too. And Santorum has only about half the delegates as Romney ...

    Right now, I think Romney will finish the primaries with close to 1000 delegates, and things will have to be settled at the Convention. If Gingrich drops out, however, and some part (even a lesser portion) of his delegates switch to Romney, this might be Romney's best bet for an outright win. In other words, if Santorum is to have a hope of winning this, he needs Gingrich to stick it out till the end.
     
  10. Mar 20, 2012 #9

    Evo

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    It will be interesting.
     
  11. Mar 21, 2012 #10

    Evo

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    Romney won Illinois and Santorum wasn't eligible because he didn't file proper paperwork.
     
  12. Mar 21, 2012 #11

    BobG

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    Actually, Santorum wasn't eligible in every district. There were a total of 54 delegates up for grabs, but Santorum was only eligible to earn 44 of those.
     
  13. Mar 21, 2012 #12

    turbo

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    Mittens has some problems. He doesn't resonate well with the GOP and he can't capture the base, IMO. He was governor of a very liberal state, and although he was supposedly a Republican, his attitude and positions were very far to left of the national GOP. I think that he will still pick up delegates in the primaries, but he may have a lot of trouble getting support in the general election unless there are compelling races down-ticket. That's quite backward from the norm, but that's how I see it.
     
  14. Mar 21, 2012 #13

    Evo

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  15. Mar 28, 2012 #14
    It becomes clearer with each passing day that Romney is going to win the nomination on the first ballot. However, Santorum is sticking to his strategy of reaching beyond his base of conservative supporters to include reactionaries. Gingrich's plan is to build on his sweep of the Eastern half of the middle portion of the southern states. A quick look at the political map shows that he has his opponents cornered. Paul is going to overcome his weakness in the open elections by leveraging his weakness in the caucuses. He's not doing that well in the Urals either. The latest poll shows Romney comfortably ahead in Wisconsin where until recently he was comfortably behind. He is also ahead in DC where polls indicate that Santorum isn't even on the ballot. The other primary coming up April 3rd is in Maryland and I can't find polling information. And just this morning a poll showed Santorum struggling in Pennsylvania, the Alabama of the north.
     
  16. Mar 28, 2012 #15

    Gokul43201

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    Agreed. My earlier estimate was that Romney would finish close to 1000, but now I think he could get over 1300, even if none of the other candidates drop out.
     
  17. Mar 28, 2012 #16

    Vanadium 50

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    Some arithmetic: there are 2286 delegates. 123 of them are "party leaders", and if one accepts the conventional wisdom that Gov. Romney is the establishment choice, this will break heavily for Romney - say 80-20.

    Of the remaining 2163, 1028 have been assigned, leaving 1135. Of that 1135, Gov. Romney needs something like 481 - or 42% - to make it on the 1st ballot. Thus far, he's been at 55%. So we're talking 13% worse than he's done thus far.
     
  18. Mar 28, 2012 #17

    Gokul43201

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    And we've got big states like NY, NJ, CA all expected to go to Romney (TX may be the only big state that doesn't). And WI, a winner-take-all state of 40-odd delegates is polling strongly in Romney's favor . And independent of the demographics of upcoming contests, Romney might be expected to do better than his current 55% just from the inevitability factor starting to take hold as he gets closer to the finish line.
     
  19. Apr 4, 2012 #18

    Vanadium 50

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    The new numbers are that Gov. Romney needs 39% of the remaining delegates, and has been getting 57% thus far. So the 13% fall becomes 18% now.

    Put another way, Sen. Santorum needs 81% of the remaining delegates to win on the 1st ballot.
     
  20. Apr 4, 2012 #19
    I've seen from many of your posts that you really hate Ron Paul for some reason. Gingrich should drop out too, do you think he has a chance?
     
  21. Apr 4, 2012 #20
    For simplicity sake, I assumed Romney would win all of the western states and the north-eastern states. I assumed Santorum would win the southern states, as well as Middle America.

    I looked at the delegate counts and did the math.

    Mitt Romney will get 1144 (excess of 28) delegates, but it will take him all the way to the last primary in June to do that. Santorum will get a huge boost in May, and reach up to 777 delegates.

    Essentially, Santorum has a very slim chance of winning, but can effectively slow down Mitt Romney.
     
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