- #1
K. Doc Holiday
- 32
- 13
I suck at math. Help?
Any good at statistics? I could use your help. I like to make nearly impossible predictions but I suck at calculating odds of success.
On November 2nd, 2016 at 15:54 Mountain Standard Time I made an astronomy prediction on my Facebook page:
P.M.* January 9, 2017:
IK Pegasi B appears as a NOVA.
A.M.* January 16, 2017:
AN Ursae Majoris B appears as a type 1a SUPERNOVA. (Don't fly anywhere)
*Mountain Standard Time
I am not trying to upset anyone. I do mental exercises to expand my view of reality.
I made the prediction 67 days in advance = 1 in 67. Half day "P.M." should cut it in half = 1 in 134?
Or?
Current consensus is IK Pegasi B won't nova for 2 million years. So, is 1 in 2 million closer?
To the half day is 365 times 2 = 730 times 2 million = 1 in 1,460,000,000?
Since no one considers polar white dwarfs a possibility for a supernova event I assume it is fair to calculate the odds of that happening at zero?
Once again I apologize for asking silly questions and i appreciate your patience.
Sincerely
Doc
ps. Merry Christmas [emoji320][emoji318][emoji268][emoji6]
Any good at statistics? I could use your help. I like to make nearly impossible predictions but I suck at calculating odds of success.
On November 2nd, 2016 at 15:54 Mountain Standard Time I made an astronomy prediction on my Facebook page:
P.M.* January 9, 2017:
IK Pegasi B appears as a NOVA.
A.M.* January 16, 2017:
AN Ursae Majoris B appears as a type 1a SUPERNOVA. (Don't fly anywhere)
*Mountain Standard Time
I am not trying to upset anyone. I do mental exercises to expand my view of reality.
I made the prediction 67 days in advance = 1 in 67. Half day "P.M." should cut it in half = 1 in 134?
Or?
Current consensus is IK Pegasi B won't nova for 2 million years. So, is 1 in 2 million closer?
To the half day is 365 times 2 = 730 times 2 million = 1 in 1,460,000,000?
Since no one considers polar white dwarfs a possibility for a supernova event I assume it is fair to calculate the odds of that happening at zero?
Once again I apologize for asking silly questions and i appreciate your patience.
Sincerely
Doc
ps. Merry Christmas [emoji320][emoji318][emoji268][emoji6]