Predicting Supernovas: Math Question and Mental Exercises | Expert Help Needed

  • B
  • Thread starter K. Doc Holiday
  • Start date
  • Tags
    Beginning
In summary, the conversation revolves around the speaker's struggle with math and their interest in making predictions. They mention a specific prediction they made on their Facebook page and ask for help with calculating the odds of its success. They also discuss the concept of surprise and uncertainty in predictions and apologize for asking seemingly silly questions. The conversation ends with a holiday greeting.
  • #1
K. Doc Holiday
32
13
I suck at math. Help?

Any good at statistics? I could use your help. I like to make nearly impossible predictions but I suck at calculating odds of success.

On November 2nd, 2016 at 15:54 Mountain Standard Time I made an astronomy prediction on my Facebook page:

P.M.* January 9, 2017:
IK Pegasi B appears as a NOVA.

A.M.* January 16, 2017:
AN Ursae Majoris B appears as a type 1a SUPERNOVA. (Don't fly anywhere)

*Mountain Standard Time

I am not trying to upset anyone. I do mental exercises to expand my view of reality.

I made the prediction 67 days in advance = 1 in 67. Half day "P.M." should cut it in half = 1 in 134?
Or?

Current consensus is IK Pegasi B won't nova for 2 million years. So, is 1 in 2 million closer?

To the half day is 365 times 2 = 730 times 2 million = 1 in 1,460,000,000?

Since no one considers polar white dwarfs a possibility for a supernova event I assume it is fair to calculate the odds of that happening at zero?

Once again I apologize for asking silly questions and i appreciate your patience.

Sincerely
Doc

ps. Merry Christmas [emoji320][emoji318][emoji268][emoji6]
 
Physics news on Phys.org
  • #2
K. Doc Holiday said:
I
I made the prediction 67 days in advance = 1 in 67.

Sorry, it doesn't work that way at all. 1 in 67 means a certain degree of surprise/uncertainty. Specifying how many days in advance doesn't quantify that way. I can predict that in 67 years it will rain somewhere in the world. I did it 67 days in advance, but the odds aren't 1 in 67.

For sure though, specifying something more in advance than specifying it right before it happens is more impressive, and might deserve more impressive odds, but it won't be 1 in 67.
 

What is the definition of a number?

A number is a mathematical object that is used to count, measure, and label. It can represent quantities, values, and positions.

What are the basic operations in math?

The basic operations in math are addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division. Addition is combining two or more numbers to get a total. Subtraction is taking away a number from another number. Multiplication is repeated addition and division is the opposite of multiplication.

What is the difference between odd and even numbers?

An odd number is a number that cannot be divided evenly by 2, resulting in a remainder of 1. Even numbers can be divided evenly by 2 with no remainder.

How do you solve a word problem in math?

To solve a word problem in math, start by understanding the problem and identifying the known and unknown quantities. Then, use the appropriate operation to find the solution, making sure to check your work for accuracy.

What are the properties of numbers?

The properties of numbers include commutative, associative, distributive, identity, and inverse properties. These properties help in manipulating and simplifying equations and expressions in math.

Similar threads

  • Astronomy and Astrophysics
Replies
8
Views
2K
Back
Top