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Betting & Stochastic Processes

  1. Feb 5, 2010 #1
    Dear Community,

    I am faced with a challenge. I can't quite grasp the implications of this.
    I schould've listened better in statistics lectures! :blushing:
    I would really appreciate your help. :)

    I have a not normal stochastic process P on which I can bet.
    Obviously, I don't know the distribution of P. It is somehow what I want to find in order to profit from the betting strategy.

    I can either bet on the fact that P will increase in the future or that P will fall. (It works a bit like the stock-market, I like the analogy. I.e. I can either buy P or sell P. The value of P fluctuates over time).

    What I did is take P through a "step function", so that I can map P to a random walk.
    At each step, P can either go up or by the step size or go down by the step size. The step size is a fixed percentage of P's current value.
    In other words, I had P represented in the value/time plane and I now have it in the value/step plane.

    Now it turns out that P is gaussian in the value/step plane!
    At every step, the probability of P going up/down is 0.5.

    I think I can't fully grasp the implications of this.
    Has anyone any idea how it can help betting on P?
    What would be a positive expectancy betting strategy?

    Thanks,

    Julia
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Feb 5, 2010 #2

    EnumaElish

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    Homework Helper

    I don't know much about betting, but the probability of up/down = 0.5 could suggest any symmetric distribution (e.g. uniform), not just Gaussian.
     
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