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Betwixtwists wins. New string prediction poll.

  1. 4900 (an increase over 2007)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 4700 (down from 2007)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 4500

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. 4300

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. 4100 (15% drop-off from previous year)

    100.0%
  6. 3900

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Jul 16, 2008 #1

    marcus

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    Betwixtwists came closest to guessing the rate of string research publication for the first six months of this year. Nerfmonkey didn't do badly. But Arivero, Ed Aboud, and I were way off.
    https://www.physicsforums.com/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=1352

    As of the moment the tally for the first six months is 2113, it could increase some as stragglers come in, but Betwixtwists is already the clear winner.

    What do you guess the index will be for the whole of 2008? It's defined using the
    the Harvard abstract search tool with
    keywords = superstring, M-theory, brane, compactification, heterotic, AdS/CFT

    Here are the links for three years: 2006, 2007, and 2008. Clicking on the link for that year will tell you how many papers with those keywords were published that year in the professional journals tracked by the Harvard database. It gives a rough easy way to sample trends in peer-review research publication.

    2006 (4915 papers published): http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/n...txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

    2007 (4833 published):
    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/n...txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

    2008 (unknown, only part of the year's crop is in): http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/n...txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

    4915, 4833, ...?

    At the end of the year we will click on the link for 2008 and see which forecast came closest.

    Here's the link to the poll regarding the first six months of the year:
    https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=233106
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2008
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