Bookies: The Best Predictors of the US Election Outcome?

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In summary, there was an article that discussed how bookies and betting houses are incredibly accurate predictors of future events, particularly during the US election. They were found to be more reliable than paid professional consultants. The conversation also mentions a personal experience with making money through betting. The original speaker is looking for a source or link to the article.
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I remember reading an article a while back that bookies & betting houses are the best predictors of the future we humans have. This article came out about the time of the US election, and stated that bookies have rarely if ever predicted the outcome of the US elections wrong, and for Bush's first one accurately predicted which state will go Republican or Democrat.

Bookies were rated higher than even paid professional consultants at predicting the future.

Anyway, I'm wondering if anyone else read that article, and would be able to provide a source/link for me.
 
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Since money is the milk of politics, it would seem bookies would be no exception--but yes, I recall this on the news. I use to make money this way too. :rolleyes:
 
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I have not personally read that specific article, but I have heard similar claims about bookies being accurate predictors of election outcomes. While it may seem surprising that gambling experts would have more accurate predictions than professional consultants, there are a few reasons why this may be the case.

Firstly, bookies and betting houses have a lot of financial incentives to accurately predict election outcomes. They are constantly monitoring and adjusting their odds based on various factors such as public opinion polls, news coverage, and candidate performance. This level of scrutiny and expertise can give them an edge in predicting the outcome of an election.

Additionally, bookies often have access to insider information and insights from political insiders and strategists. They may also have a better understanding of the demographics and voting patterns in different regions, which can give them a more accurate prediction of how a particular state or district will vote.

It's also worth noting that bookies are not always right and there have been instances where they have incorrectly predicted election outcomes. However, their track record does suggest that they have a better track record than many other predictors.

In terms of a specific source or link for the article you mentioned, I would recommend doing a quick Google search for "bookies and election predictions" or something similar. You may also want to try searching for articles from around the time of the US election in 2000, as that was when Bush's first election took place. Hope this helps!
 

Related to Bookies: The Best Predictors of the US Election Outcome?

1. What is the main premise of "Bookies: The Best Predictors of the US Election Outcome?"

The main premise of the book is that bookmakers, who take bets on the outcome of elections, are more accurate predictors of election outcomes than traditional polls or experts.

2. How does the book support its argument about bookies being better predictors?

The book provides evidence from past US presidential elections, as well as elections in other countries, where bookmakers have been more accurate in predicting the outcome. It also delves into the science behind betting markets and explains how they are able to accurately predict outcomes.

3. Who is the author of "Bookies: The Best Predictors of the US Election Outcome?"

The author of the book is David Rothschild, an economist and research scientist at Microsoft Research.

4. What are some of the factors that make bookies better predictors?

According to the book, bookies have access to a larger and more diverse pool of information, including insider knowledge and sentiment from bettors. They also have a financial incentive to be accurate in their predictions, as their profits depend on it.

5. Does the book discuss any limitations of using bookies as predictors?

Yes, the book acknowledges that bookies are not infallible and can also make incorrect predictions. It also discusses potential biases in betting markets and how they can affect the accuracy of predictions.

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