- #1
Rach3
Americans have detained several senior Iranian military officials in Iraq. What's interesting about this is less what they had in their possession when captured (U.S. won't say) or what threat they were suspected off (won't speculate), but more that the executive branch was surprisingly quick to announce possible evidence of Iranian involvement in Shia militas. Especially from an administration that "doesn't like to speculate".
U.S. Is Detaining Iranians Caught in Raids in Iraq
This is different from most of Rach3's political threads; rather than sticking closely to the journalists' analysis (NYT here), I'm presenting my own inferrence of how this story is meaningful.
My understanding is thus: it's been generally suspected that Iranianians may be assisting with Shia milita in Iraq; some suggest the Iranian government is involved in this (they certainly have motivation to be.) The language of the spoksepeople, saying rather strongly that Iranian officials are linked to milita attacks (though not producing evidence yet), reflects an ongoing position of the administration to find a smoking gun, or failing at least discredit, the Iranian regime, to justify military action.
So what I'm getting out of this is not that Ahmadinejad is working in Iran (and Lebanon, both of which do seem probable to me), but even more significantly, the U.S. administration is working on a new front to justify an Iranian attack. Since they haven't presented any evidence yet, it reminds me uncomfortably of the pre-Iraq war tactics, when they were shifting from human rights in Iraq to mobile bioweapons labs to undestroyed chemical weapons to attempts to purchase uranium ore; the decision was already made, they just needed a reason.
What do you think of my perceptions? I've got another worry; does the shift from stopping uranium enrichment to stopping Iraq involvment, suggest a shift from a tactical strike on a nuclear facility, to attempts at regime change? It's speculative but rather suggestive.
U.S. Is Detaining Iranians Caught in Raids in Iraq
This is different from most of Rach3's political threads; rather than sticking closely to the journalists' analysis (NYT here), I'm presenting my own inferrence of how this story is meaningful.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/25/w...a821b3118d9&hp&ex=1167109200&partner=homepageNYT said:He confirmed that a group of other Iranians, including the military officials, remained in custody while an investigation continued, and he said, “We continue to work with the government of Iraq on the status of the detainees.”
It was unclear what kind of evidence American officials possessed that the Iranians were planning attacks, and the officials would not identify those being held. One official said that “a lot of material” was seized in the raid, but would not say if it included arms or documents that pointed to planning for attacks. Much of the material was still being examined, the official said.
...American and Iraqi officials have long accused Iran of interfering in this country’s internal affairs, but have rarely produced evidence. The administration presented last week’s arrests as a potential confirmation of the link. Mr. Johndroe said, “We suspect this event validates our claims about Iranian meddling, but we want to finish our investigation of the detained Iranians before characterizing their activities.”
He added: “We will be better able to explain what this means about the larger picture after we finish our investigation.”
My understanding is thus: it's been generally suspected that Iranianians may be assisting with Shia milita in Iraq; some suggest the Iranian government is involved in this (they certainly have motivation to be.) The language of the spoksepeople, saying rather strongly that Iranian officials are linked to milita attacks (though not producing evidence yet), reflects an ongoing position of the administration to find a smoking gun, or failing at least discredit, the Iranian regime, to justify military action.
So what I'm getting out of this is not that Ahmadinejad is working in Iran (and Lebanon, both of which do seem probable to me), but even more significantly, the U.S. administration is working on a new front to justify an Iranian attack. Since they haven't presented any evidence yet, it reminds me uncomfortably of the pre-Iraq war tactics, when they were shifting from human rights in Iraq to mobile bioweapons labs to undestroyed chemical weapons to attempts to purchase uranium ore; the decision was already made, they just needed a reason.
What do you think of my perceptions? I've got another worry; does the shift from stopping uranium enrichment to stopping Iraq involvment, suggest a shift from a tactical strike on a nuclear facility, to attempts at regime change? It's speculative but rather suggestive.
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