While the satellite’s exact trajectory is still uncertain, anyone in the vicinity of UARS’ return to Earth’s atmosphere will be privy to an impressive light show — and be subject to a 1-in-3200 chance of getting hit by debris, according to NASA.

The 1/3200 chance is a bit misleading. It is not the probability you will be hit. It is the probability that at least one person somewhere on the face of planet will be hit by debris given 100% uncertainty in when it will come down. The chances that a specific individual will being hit are about 1/3200/7 billion. The satellite, with an orbital inclination of 56.7 degrees, swings over almost all major cities on the planet. As of now, the strike zone apparently still covers pretty much everything between -57 and +57 degrees latitude.

This strike zone will shrink dramatically over the next few days. For all those who remain in it, or remain close to Evo (same thing, thanks to the Evo effect), the probability will rise dramatically. For the vast majority of us, the probability will drop to exactly zero.