- #1
snoopies622
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Last night the CBS Evening News reported that the U.S. Government released some economic data about the month of November. One datum was that the net number of jobs in the United States increased by about 39,000. Their Senior Business Correspondent Anthony Mason said that that number "baffled economists, who were expecting a much stronger one." In the afternoon CNN also mentioned the newly released data, saying that "a lot of experts were shocked" by it.
I don't know how many times in my life I've seen or read news reports like this. We're told that the government released new economic data, and - usually in the same sentence - that economists were expecting something quite different and are therefore surprised.
These reports never describe or even name what economic models these experts used to make their (incorrect) predictions, why they had confidence in them in the first place, and which ones they'll be trying out next time.
I cannot help but wonder: is economics a science, or is it more like astrology? At least economists (unlike astrologers) are willing to admit when their predictions are false, but is the whole affair intellectually honest? One never hears, "last night starting around 8:31 pm there was an eclipse of the moon. Astronomers were shocked, since they predicted that it would come next Tuesday instead."
What's going on in those university economics departments? How can they be wrong so often? Where's the intellectual humility?
I don't know how many times in my life I've seen or read news reports like this. We're told that the government released new economic data, and - usually in the same sentence - that economists were expecting something quite different and are therefore surprised.
These reports never describe or even name what economic models these experts used to make their (incorrect) predictions, why they had confidence in them in the first place, and which ones they'll be trying out next time.
I cannot help but wonder: is economics a science, or is it more like astrology? At least economists (unlike astrologers) are willing to admit when their predictions are false, but is the whole affair intellectually honest? One never hears, "last night starting around 8:31 pm there was an eclipse of the moon. Astronomers were shocked, since they predicted that it would come next Tuesday instead."
What's going on in those university economics departments? How can they be wrong so often? Where's the intellectual humility?