I have a situation that seems easy, I just keep confusing myself. Say theres a card game in which the first step is for the player to choose a suite. After the suite is chosen, they draw a card. If the card matches their suite, they win and the game is over. If the card does not match the suite, the game continues and the player chooses another card without replacing the first card. If this second card matches the suite, they win. If the second card has not matched the suite either, the game is over and considered a loss. What is the probability of winning? Would it simply be the probability of the first card's success probability plus the second card's success probability: (1/4)+(13/51)? Or would the winning probability be the probability of success on the first card plus the quotient of the probability of failure on the first card, times the probability of success on the second card: (1/4) + (3/4)(13/51)?