Chance of a dictator taking over the country

[JaredJames]

A few things before I start. I feel there are some really bad assumptions being made (or appear to be):
1. Not everyone with a gun will be against what the military is doing.
2. Not everyone with a gun will stand up to the military or want to.
3. Not everyone with a gun will be capable of standing up to the military.
4. Some people with a gun will fight on the side of the military.
5. Not all non-armed civilians will be against what the military is doing.
6. Not all non-armed civilians will put up resistance to the military.

I mention them because they are possibilities and something you can't write-off. Particularly in relation to the civilian population without arms not resisting and just "getting on with things".

Also, I'd like to add that for the purpose of this discussion we're assuming the military personnel are all in agreement and going along with this coup.

Now the blockade thing was purely relating to supplies (as someone brought in above). If the military got control of the areas surrounding major cities (wouldn't have to be air tight, just monitoring transport links for the most part - drones could handle that) and their utilities it would give them a fair amount of control over the populace. On top of that they could manage food supplies and related items.
Add to that a complete ban on weapons and ammo entering these 'control zones' and there's only so long the resistance can keep going.

Remember, there's going to be a few million people in each city relying on supplies from external sources.

Basically, military say "you keep doing your jobs and providing us what we need and we won't stop the food arriving, water running, electric on and gas flowing.".

The reason I didn't want the areas wiped off the face of the Earth is simply relating to the usefulness of having the infrastructure in place.

I'd also note though that if we are at the stage of the military taking over, I somehow doubt they'd care about wiping out a small area if there was a lot of resistance coming from there.

As you said Nismar "a gun without bullets is like a gun without its owner: useless. " - you can apply the same thing to the population regarding food and other supplies / utilities. Hunger can be a major player for the military. They wouldn't have to control the population, only the supply routes.

Personally, if something like this happened I'd want to be on the border with Canada - I'd say that gives your best bet for resistance / survival.

 

[nismaratwork]

A few things before I start. I feel there are some really bad assumptions being made (or appear to be):
1. Not everyone with a gun will be against what the military is doing.
2. Not everyone with a gun will stand up to the military or want to.
3. Not everyone with a gun will be capable of standing up to the military.
4. Some people with a gun will fight on the side of the military.
5. Not all non-armed civilians will be against what the military is doing.
6. Not all non-armed civilians will put up resistance to the military.

I mention them because they are possibilities and something you can't write-off. Particularly in relation to the civilian population without arms not resisting and just "getting on with things".

Also, I'd like to add that for the purpose of this discussion we're assuming the military personnel are all in agreement and going along with this coup.

Now the blockade thing was purely relating to supplies (as someone brought in above). If the military got control of the areas surrounding major cities (wouldn't have to be air tight, just monitoring transport links for the most part - drones could handle that) and their utilities it would give them a fair amount of control over the populace. On top of that they could manage food supplies and related items.
Add to that a complete ban on weapons and ammo entering these 'control zones' and there's only so long the resistance can keep going.

Remember, there's going to be a few million people in each city relying on supplies from external sources.

Basically, military say "you keep doing your jobs and providing us what we need and we won't stop the food arriving, water running, electric on and gas flowing.".

The reason I didn't want the areas wiped off the face of the Earth is simply relating to the usefulness of having the infrastructure in place.

I'd also note though that if we are at the stage of the military taking over, I somehow doubt they'd care about wiping out a small area if there was a lot of resistance coming from there.

As you said Nismar "a gun without bullets is like a gun without its owner: useless. " - you can apply the same thing to the population regarding food and other supplies / utilities. Hunger can be a major player for the military. They wouldn't have to control the population, only the supply routes.

Personally, if something like this happened I'd want to be on the border with Canada - I'd say that gives your best bet for resistance / survival.

AFAIK, if the military were lock-step as you say, "resistance [would be] futile." In that situation, decimation or destruction of a major population center that resists would be highly effective, and the use of WMD would be easy. We have an amazing military; we'd have no chance at all, but by the same token, it's extremely hard to imagine a military coup in the USA. A military coup d'état with only the threat of violence, if that threat were real, would be inexorable.

 

[JaredJames]

AFAIK, if the military were lock-step as you say, "resistance [would be] futile." In that situation, decimation or destruction of a major population center that resists would be highly effective, and the use of WMD would be easy. We have an amazing military; we'd have no chance at all, but by the same token, it's extremely hard to imagine a military coup in the USA. A military coup d'état with only the threat of violence, if that threat were real, would be inexorable.

Pretty much my thoughts on the matter.

I don't believe any 'westernised' country is easily susceptible to a coup from the military purely because of the issue of the troops not cooperating - this ignores anything other countries may do.

But once you have all those things in place I don't think there would be much you could do about it.

I learn a new word from you each day nismar, today's is "inexorable".

 

[nismaratwork]

Pretty much my thoughts on the matter.

I don't believe any 'westernised' country is easily susceptible to a coup from the military purely because of the issue of the troops not cooperating - this ignores anything other countries may do.

But once you have all those things in place I don't think there would be much you could do about it.

I learn a new word from you each day nismar, today's is "inexorable".

Heh... thanks Jared, and I do agree... beyond that, if other countries tried to interfere with a military coup of a nuclear power... that could end badly.

 

[JaredJames]

Heh... thanks Jared, and I do agree... beyond that, if other countries tried to interfere with a military coup of a nuclear power... that could end badly.

I'd say the whole MAD thing would come back into play again - it would be the sort of monetary and trade restrictions that could be placed I was mainly considering.

Obviously, I don't think they'd last - I bet China would supply just to get them on side (let's face it, the Chinese are hardly known for their strict adherence to international law and such - copyright is a word that doesn't mean anything for a start).

 

[nismaratwork]

I'd say the whole MAD thing would come back into play again - it would be the sort of monetary and trade restrictions that could be placed I was mainly considering.

Obviously, I don't think they'd last - I bet China would supply just to get them on side (let's face it, the Chinese are hardly known for their strict adherence to international law and such - copyright is a word that doesn't mean anything for a start).

True; all we need to do is examine the history of proxy warfare during the cold war to find out how these things must be done. We've also seen that the price is blowback on the scale of (and in fact) AQ.

 

[Gokul43201]

The I in IED stands for "improvised." They weren't sold in Iraq, either.

Neither were the RPGs - most came from the military stocks. But the Iraqi IEDs were made from artillery rounds and mortar shells. The IRA liked to make theirs from Semtex. The Viet Cong used unexploded hand grenades, and the Afghani mujahideen made explosives from landmines. I'm not aware of any insurgency that lasted any length of time building IEDs from Miracle Gro and drain cleaner.

My point is, you don't need all of the latest military hardware to go up against a modern military.

Sure, you can go up against them, but how long will you last without the ability to effectively take out air cover, and heavily armored vehicles and tanks?

The Iraqis wouldn't have come anywhere close to accomplishing what they did without small arms.

In Iraq, if I remember correctly, over half of all US casualties were attributed to IEDs. Somewhere near 10% of all personnel, and a disproportionately larger amount of firepower was lost through downed helicopters and fixed wing craft.

Ivan, yes US troops had to go house-to-house, but to my knowledge they didn't suffer significant casualties from small arms fire out of people's kitchens and bedrooms.

 

[nismaratwork]

Neither were the RPGs - most came from the military stocks. But the Iraqi IEDs were made from artillery rounds and mortar shells. The IRA liked to make theirs from Semtex. The Viet Cong used unexploded hand grenades, and the Afghani mujahideen made explosives from landmines. I'm not aware of any insurgency that lasted any length of time building IEDs from Miracle Gro and drain cleaner.

I'd add, Iran and others provide EFP's to Iraq, so there's also a proxy warefare element you might not see it he US. Then again, who here couldn't make horrific bomb?... The main issues would be blowing yourself to a fine red mist, and the obvious horror of it all.

Sure, you can go up against them, but how long will you last without the ability to effectively take out air cover?

About 5 minutes.

In Iraq, over half of all US casualties were attributed to IEDs. Somewhere near 10% of all personnel, and a disproportionately larger amount of firepower was lost through downed helicopters and fixed wing craft.

Ivan, yes US troops had to go house-to-house, but to my knowledge they didn't suffer significant casualties from small arms fire out of people's kitchens and bedrooms.

In House to House sweeps, the people at most risk are the people in the houses. You have very good information Gokul.

 

[Phrak]

How did Rome evolve from counting votes, to a republic of the few, then to Julius Cesar and dictatorship?

 

[nismaratwork]

How did Rome evolve from counting votes, to a republic of the few, then to Julius Cesar and dictatorship?

Through a complex serious of events, including massive corruption and the reality that land-owning gnetry were the major players.

I'd add... Londinium was quite nice... and when the Romans left, it became a ruin for centuries.

 

[Phrak]

Through a complex serious of events, including massive corruption and the reality that land-owning gnetry were the major players.

I'd add... Londinium was quite nice... and when the Romans left, it became a ruin for centuries.

The idea is to draw parallels between the US and Rome, which requires more than quick consideration.

 

[russ_watters]

In Iraq, if I remember correctly, over half of all US casualties were attributed to IEDs. Somewhere near 10% of all personnel, and a disproportionately larger amount of firepower was lost through downed helicopters and fixed wing craft.

At least 60% according to the wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Improvised_explosive_device#Iraq

It's also worth noting that a significant fraction of IEDs - particularly in Iraq - are stolen military explosives. So the idea of musket-wielding peasants being able to also resist with IEDs is moving the goalposts to a different field! They're not stripping fireworks to make these IEDs.

 

[russ_watters]

They still had to take the country house by house. That means men [and women] with guns, not RPGs.

Recall the cry that we heard from a woman in Libya that was quoted in the Libya thread ~ "Help us, we have no guns!" The only reason Kadhafi forces have been held at bay is that the people were able to get guns. We see the proof right before our eyes.

You don't need an RPG to kill a man. A high-power rifle, like any hunting rifle for large game, will do. In fact, it is much harder to kill something like a bear, than it is to kill a man.

Without guns, we are nothing but helpless sheep in the eyes of a cruel dictator.

Aren't you arguing against your own point here, Ivan? A public who doesn't have guns can still get guns (and RPGs and SAMs and tanks) and defeat a dictator, particularly when it is the military units themselves who are joining the revolution.

You're not suggesting Americans should have a right to bear tanks, are you?

 

[Containment]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we do have the right to bear tanks they just aren't street legal *they would destroy the roads* or cheap enough for the average joe to own right? I remember hearing from so many people that have weapons you would never expect anyone to own with the permits to own them. I would be amazed if there isn't one really rich dude somewhere collecting tanks as a hobby.

 

[JaredJames]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we do have the right to bear tanks they just aren't street legal *they would destroy the roads* or cheap enough for the average joe to own right? I remember hearing from so many people that have weapons you would never expect anyone to own with the permits to own them. I would be amazed if there isn't one really rich dude somewhere collecting tanks as a hobby.

You can own a tank if you want, there are people in the UK that own Harrier Jump Jets.

But, and here's the real kicker, you're not allowed to own the weapons that goes with them *would you believe it*?

So unless you plan on 'distraction runs' and throwing rocks out of the cockpit kinda like old school fighter pilots on the original bomber runs, you're not going to be much use (and even then I'd give you one pass of a SAM site at best).

 

[Containment]

No actually I wouldn't believe it :) I'm pretty sure the people wouldn't own harrier jump jets without getting all the perks that come with one. However the people that can afford those types of things could probably pay off who ever they need to if they wanted.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/Armored-Personnel-Carrier-OT-64-_W0QQcmdZViewItemQQhashZitem336560f88aQQitemZ220744185994QQptZMilitaryQ5fVehicles#ht_599wt_1165

lol I didn't think I'd actually find one posted on ebay I have no clue how legit this actually is.

 

[JaredJames]

No actually I wouldn't believe it :) I'm pretty sure the people wouldn't own harrier jump jets without getting all the perks that come with one. However the people that can afford those types of things could probably pay off who ever they need to if they wanted.

Well you can live in whatever fantasy world you like. I'll stick with reality. The US and the UK are not going to give civilians depleted uranium rounds and a variety of bombs and missiles. Period.

Whatever the public want to buy so far as these items go, they must be decommissioned.

 

[nismaratwork]

The idea is to draw parallels between the US and Rome, which requires more than quick consideration.

Oh I got your point, but you need to actually make it, not imply it with the usual, "Fall of Rome" issue. Comparisons to Rome are so vague and can mean so much, that it's meaningless without a direct historical comparison. If you want to induce thought, you need to offer more, otherwise quick meets quick.

@Russ: I took it to be a statement of fact, not an endorsement to arm people. If anything, I believe it's a statement that such a thing is always pointless in the unlikely case (which has been posited) of a military coup. Nice try though, +1 for relentlessness.

 

[nismaratwork]

Well you can live in whatever fantasy world you like. I'll stick with reality. The US and the UK are not going to give civilians depleted uranium rounds and a variety of bombs and missiles. Period.

Whatever the public want to buy so far as these items go, they must be decommissioned.

Yep... it's not exactly a "maybe" issue either.

 

[nismaratwork]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we do have the right to bear tanks they just aren't street legal *they would destroy the roads* or cheap enough for the average joe to own right? I remember hearing from so many people that have weapons you would never expect anyone to own with the permits to own them. I would be amazed if there isn't one really rich dude somewhere collecting tanks as a hobby.

There are rich dudes who own tanks, and they can even drive them around (in private land)! The main gun is filled however, all secondary arms removed, including much of the technology that makes a tank more than a big heavy coffin.

Oh, and they're not street-legal, and they sure as hell aren't the latest and greatest armour. It's also worth noting that modifying them is not a small felony.

 

[JaredJames]

Yep... it's not exactly a "maybe" issue either.

Can you imagine the conversation?

"So you want the F15, will sir be requiring air to air or air to ground missiles with that?"
"We've also got a good deal on ICBM's if you're interested."

 

[nismaratwork]

Can you imagine the conversation?

"So you want the F15, will sir be requiring air to air or air to ground missiles with that?"
"We've also got a good deal on ICBM's if you're interested."

:rofl:

I can imagine how that ends! On the other hand, you can buy old ICBM SILOS... rather stripped-down though.


Oh man... the only people who get to talk about those kinds arms are national customers and security firms.

"Sir... would you like MIRV's with that, or will just the single RV be sufficient for your nuclear ambitions?" Hey, I guess I can imagine it!

 

[russ_watters]

No actually I wouldn't believe it :) I'm pretty sure the people wouldn't own harrier jump jets without getting all the perks that come with one. However the people that can afford those types of things could probably pay off who ever they need to if they wanted.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/Armored-Personnel-Carrier-OT-64-_W0QQcmdZViewItemQQhashZitem336560f88aQQitemZ220744185994QQptZMilitaryQ5fVehicles#ht_599wt_1165

lol I didn't think I'd actually find one posted on ebay I have no clue how legit this actually is.

Note the quote: "The vehicle will come demilitarized without any weapon system, and in full compliance with the US laws"