What Will China's Future Hold: Rival, Ally or Enemy?

[wasteofo2]

So, obviously, China's economy is growing at an amazing rate, they've got the 4th largest economy in the world behind the USA, Japan and Germany, and are going to keep on growing in all likelyhood. They've also got a gigantic army, and in the next few decades could build up one of the worlds most powerful militaries. With their geographical location, there are lots of weak/poor countries around them which they could easily weild lots of influence over, or even take over. Hell, within their boarders now there are lots of groups of people who feel they aren't really Chinese. However, their President has been giving lots of speeches on China's commitment to peace in the world. Not that what any leader says about peace can be taken literally.

But anyway.

They're really powerful now.

They're going to get even more powerful at a really rapid rate.

What kind of relations do you think they'll have with the west in half a century or so, when they're about on par with the USA.

Could we have another cold war brewing?

Might there be a democratic revolution, that the west would have to take sides in?

Might China slowly reform to allow for more individual liberties and less government control, and become intergrated into the world peacefully?

La de da,
what will happen?

 

[sid_galt]

For me China is an enemy. It is extremely fascist with suppression of the people via corporate collusion and extremely dangerous to the world.

 

[gravenewworld]

ally. china would never want to upset its biggest trading partner i.e. the US. if trade relations with the US ever tanked, the Chinese economy would tank as well. As China's gdp grows from more and more capitalist influences their communist regime is bound to fall. Chinese citizens will demand a democratic government. The communist grip on china is already starting to loosen. I think i even remember my econ professor even saying that in 2006 China will no longer fix its currency, it will let the free market determine its currency value.

 

[DM]

What kind of relations do you think they'll have with the west in half a century or so, when they're about on par with the USA.
Could we have another cold war brewing?
Might there be a democratic revolution, that the west would have to take sides in?

In pragmatic terms I strongly believe the west is initiating to fear China. Any input that China will have on any matter will be accepted from now on by the west very diplomatically. The relations between China and the US will be monitored very closely but I can almost reassure everyone that the US will be immensely keen on visiting China more frequently. This of course is to ensure a peaceful relationship between the two at any cost and if I'm not mistaken to show a great level of respect. The tangible and ostensible disturbance in everyone's mind is indeed the sheer size of China's military. Never mind the growing economy, if China is to become the next superpower, it will be so by growing a strong, intimidating and fearless military. China has carefully contemplated, discussed and implemented the superpower "wannabe" plan. It is about to realize it by of course recruiting further military personnel, playing nice with other countries and in my belief potentially culminating in turning the "American dream" into the "Chinese dream" since they'll have a stronger economy.

 

[sid_galt]

ally. china would never want to upset its biggest trading partner i.e. the US. if trade relations with the US ever tanked, the Chinese economy would tank as well.

You never know. Tyrants love power much more than money.

As China's gdp grows from more and more capitalist influences their communist regime is bound to fall. Chinese citizens will demand a democratic government. The communist grip on china is already starting to loosen. I think i even remember my econ professor even saying that in 2006 China will no longer fix its currency, it will let the free market determine its currency value.

You mean like the Soviet Union? It is possible but I doubt it. In the 1980s we had people like Reagan, Thatcher and the Pope who were willing to morally condemn the Soviets and had the courage to fight them.

Now we have lame ducks and corrupt politicians like George W Bush and a Senate which is actively trying to reduce individual rights (e.g. McCain-Feingold which was approved by Bush and upheld by the Supreme Court), let alone fight the Chinese commies.

 

[Astronuc]

I would say that China is a rival - particularly an economic rival.

As access to resources and even as resources become limited, the competition will be more strongly felt.

Nations with large economic interests feel compelled to flex their economic muscle at some point.

 

[sid_galt]

I would say that China is a rival - particularly an economic rival.

Given the fact that China without the American companies is a dead economy, I doubt that the economic threat of China is all that great as presented. For instance if the US implemented a trade embargo on China, then the US economy would feel severe repercussions but China would completely collapse.
What is much more greater is the military threat which China poses.

 

[Cyrus]

I disagree. China is an rising power, but not a rival. US-chinese relations are reaching all time highs. Since the mid 80's, chinese and america trade has increased substantially. There has been many American companies started in China, and they are getting acustomed to the American way of life with a rising middle class demographic. Soon, the people will be so used to an open market in china, that they will want all the luxuries of Europe and the US that come only with a democracy. The same will happen to them as did to russia, hopefully less the corruption. Militarily, they have power, but they won't use their power. They know it would mean the withdrawl of the US from their ecnomy, which would be devistating, because we are their number one importer of their goods.

What kind of relations do you think they'll have with the west in half a century or so, when they're about on par with the USA.

We already have good relations, and see no reason for it to change.

Could we have another cold war brewing?

Nope, so long as the US sticks its nose out of Taiwan.

Might there be a democratic revolution, that the west would have to take sides in?

Nope, it will be a transition within the country, hopefully, as in Russia.

Might China slowly reform to allow for more individual liberties and less government control, and become intergrated into the world peacefully?

Yep, you got it.

 

[neurocomp2003]

russia/china both allies to Canada woohoo...

 

[scott1]

None it's kind of all of them.But it's probally more of a rival then ally or Emeny

 

[wasteofo2]

I disagree. China is an rising power, but not a rival. US-chinese relations are reaching all time highs. Since the mid 80's, chinese and america trade has increased substantially. There has been many American companies started in China, and they are getting acustomed to the American way of life with a rising middle class demographic. Soon, the people will be so used to an open market in china, that they will want all the luxuries of Europe and the US that come only with a democracy. The same will happen to them as did to russia, hopefully less the corruption. Militarily, they have power, but they won't use their power. They know it would mean the withdrawl of the US from their ecnomy, which would be devistating, because we are their number one importer of their goods.
We already have good relations, and see no reason for it to change.
Nope, so long as the US sticks its nose out of Taiwan.
Nope, it will be a transition within the country, hopefully, as in Russia.
Yep, you got it.

How can you be so positive that everything will be so peachy? How do you know some crap might start up with Taiwan? What if they declare independence? What if the Chinese use military force to supress revolution in Taiwan? What if the Chinese use military force to supress revolution in China? What if China's growing power rekindles tension between it and Japan?

Sure the U.S. is China's biggest trading partner, but the U.S. needs China just as badly as China needs the U.S. Who's to say the Chinese might not gain the upper hand, and be able to do all sorts of horrible stuff while holding the U.S. at bay with threats of an embargo?

 

[Cyrus]

You like to get too carried away H20. Anyways,

How can you be so positive that everything will be so peachy?

Because the chinese are an old civilization that for the most parth as not gone around stirring up trouble.

How do you know some crap might start up with Taiwan?

Because China and Taiwan can't afford to go to war, there would be too many consequences for both sides.

What if they declare independence?

Then well see what happens after they do.

What if the Chinese use military force to supress revolution in Taiwan?

Too speculative.

What if the Chinese use military force to supress revolution in China?

They have before, and there was no major war, so I don't see how that matters. There is already a revolution going on in china.

What if China's growing power rekindles tension between it and Japan?

They have already had tension for some time now.

Might China slowly reform to allow for more individual liberties and less government control, and become intergrated into the world peacefully?

If you turn on the news you would find that this is already happening.

 

[Ortelius]

China

China is a rival AND a partner. There is no doubt possible about the intention of the Chinese leaders to become a dominant power in the world, economically as well as military. Their economy is already considerable and growing fast. Yet the problems remain staggering. The govenment wants to reduce the rural population from now >80 % to less than 60 % in a decade, which is still huge, compared to developed nations. This means that in 10 years 260 million people need to be "urbanized"! (the population of the US!) And that will still leave 700 million people living as farmers.
The problems are very visible for people living in China. Everywhere there are industrial zones popping up and farmers loose their tiny pieces of land in exchange for a tiny appartment, creating gloomy suburban "farmertowns".
Yes, China will develop a middle class with considerable buying power and will push it's economy further upwards, but the number of participants in this economy will remain very limited. Chinese leaders tend to become increasingly proud about the great achievements. Yet, it is a numbers game. Shanghai residents can only be wealthy because they reap the fruits of the hard labor of the millions of poor inland Chinese, just like Hong Kong did before. But the same huge numbers can and will be their biggest nightmare at the same time.
Anyone wants to discuss China in detail: www.chinathetimes.com

 

[Polly]

China is a rival AND a partner. There is no doubt possible about the intention of the Chinese leaders to become a dominant power in the world, economically as well as military. Their economy is already considerable and growing fast. Yet the problems remain staggering. The govenment wants to reduce the rural population from now >80 % to less than 60 % in a decade, which is still huge, compared to developed nations. This means that in 10 years 260 million people need to be "urbanized"! (the population of the US!) And that will still leave 700 million people living as farmers.
The problems are very visible for people living in China. Everywhere there are industrial zones popping up and farmers loose their tiny pieces of land in exchange for a tiny appartment, creating gloomy suburban "farmertowns".
Yes, China will develop a middle class with considerable buying power and will push it's economy further upwards, but the number of participants in this economy will remain very limited. Chinese leaders tend to become increasingly proud about the great achievements. Yet, it is a numbers game. Shanghai residents can only be wealthy because they reap the fruits of the hard labor of the millions of poor inland Chinese, just like Hong Kong did before. But the same huge numbers can and will be their biggest nightmare at the same time.
Anyone wants to discuss China in detail: www.chinathetimes.com

:rofl: :!) :tongue2:
Ortelius you are really something.

 

[wasteofo2]

You like to get too carried away H20. Anyways,

The world is a nutty place hombre. Wondering whether or not the rise of a new super-power in the world might cause problems is hardly getting "carried away". Remember what happened when Germany and Japan became powerful in the first half of the 20th century? How about when the USSR became powerful in the second half of the 20th century? Countries that rise to positions of great power don't have a long history of doing it peacefully and reasonably.

Because the chinese are an old civilization that for the most parth as not gone around stirring up trouble.

What about that whole COMMUNIST REVOLUTION thing? What about Tiennamen Square? What about all the other countless human rights violations the Chinese government perpetrates with regularity? What about the outlawing of peaceful religions, and the violent persecution of adherents to said religions? What about all the horrible stuff in general that the Chinese government does?

I really don't see how China being an "old civilization" has anything to do with anything.

Because China and Taiwan can't afford to go to war, there would be too many consequences for both sides.

There are always consequences for both sides in a war! How can you say a war will not happen because both sides will have consequences? By your logic, the Vietnam war would've never happened. Neither would WWI, or WWII, or Napoleon's conquests, or nearly any war in history.

They [China and Japan] have already had tension for some time now.

And what if it comes to military action, as opposed to just protests and disdain?

 

[Smasherman]

Just a comment, but my friend, who grew up in mainland China, describes China as being extremely corrupt. If you're not corrupt, people don't trust you (since you might rat them out or something). Apparently people in Shanghai are trying to stop the corruption, however. China is well on its way to be a replica of Russia after becoming capitalist (well, in reality, it already is).

The current political climate of the US will be that of hostility toward China. Battling over resources and such. Hopefully it will remain at economic battles, but I suspect some young (and eventually old) Chinese will begin questioning the necessity of peace.

 

[gravenewworld]

While China's gdp has quadrupled since 1978, in per capita terms, china is still poor. China's "one kid only" policy also makes it one of the most rapidly aging countries in the world. Who is going to replace the aging work force? Pollution is also a huge threat to the Chinese development. Arable land has continued to decrease because of erosion and development (how are you going to feed a billion mouths?). My roomate actually just went on a business trip to China and came back with tons of pictures. Many areas of China are extremely poor. If you looked at the pictures he came back with, you wouldn't believe that China's economy has been growing so rapidly. Only time will tell if the Chinese economy will sustain long run economic growth.

 

[kant]

It is obvious. China and the u.s will be Rival, Ally and Enemy.

 

[Zlex]

So, obviously, China's economy is growing at an amazing rate, they've got the 4th largest economy in the world behind the USA, Japan and Germany, and are going to keep on growing in all likelyhood. They've also got a gigantic army, and in the next few decades could build up one of the worlds most powerful militaries. With their geographical location, there are lots of weak/poor countries around them which they could easily weild lots of influence over, or even take over. Hell, within their boarders now there are lots of groups of people who feel they aren't really Chinese. However, their President has been giving lots of speeches on China's commitment to peace in the world. Not that what any leader says about peace can be taken literally.
But anyway.
They're really powerful now.
They're going to get even more powerful at a really rapid rate.
What kind of relations do you think they'll have with the west in half a century or so, when they're about on par with the USA.
Could we have another cold war brewing?
Might there be a democratic revolution, that the west would have to take sides in?
Might China slowly reform to allow for more individual liberties and less government control, and become intergrated into the world peacefully?
La de da,
what will happen?

Our current military advantage is founded on about three things; a] our past advantage in tech, b] the yet remaining area under a fast fading historical curve, a happenstance of the residue of the last world war, and c] the world's willingness to finance our debt and let us spend at WWII levels of defense spending, to the point where instead of defeating America on a battlefield, we can simply be bought for pennies on the dollar without firing a shot. Oooops.

As for tech, the trends are all in the wrong direction. While we continue to send about 5% of our undergaduates--and, half of them foregin nationals--into engineering and science, China has been and continues to send over 70%.

When it comes to deep submicron technology and the tools for developing same, guess who has owned the major toolmaker technology for years? Never mind the foundaries that no longer exist to build WWI era tanks; where are the Silicon foundaries for the 21st century battlefields? We are currently ruling the skies...in 1970s era fighter planes, and that includes the F117. The light we see on the horizon is someone else's century.

The #1 US undergraduate degree is currently accounting; just in time to address the highest growth rate outsourced career market there is(accounting.) The biggest piece of the US education juggernaut is geared up to produce a workforce... that is going to compete with $5/day labor in India. Good timing, that.

Oh yes, and more than a handful of sports marketers. A smorgasbord of economies fattened on the 'DisneyLand Experience' has continued that ride well into adulthood; the momentum here is precisely in the wrong direction; unpowered flight, drifting, anything goes.

Meanwhile, China and the rest of the developing world is hungry, and if we stop whining about it, will one day wake us all the Hell back up and re-energize American industry, just like Japan taught us how to make quality cars again. Christ, does anyone remember what US cars were like in the 70s and 80s? the fat ass hood ornamant Ford LTD? The Chevy Citation? And then, "K"-Cars?

China has its own best interests at heart; no ****. That is exactly why we will come to depend on them, as a competitor for the highground in the future. Because, as we have aptly shown over the course of the last 50 years, without a competent competitor for the highground, we, like all mere naked sweaty apes, slip to the level of our weakest competitor, and take the easiest path.

 

[Anttech]

Given the fact that China without the American companies is a dead economy, I doubt that the economic threat of China is all that great as presented. For instance if the US implemented a trade embargo on China, then the US economy would feel severe repercussions but China would completely collapse.
What is much more greater is the military threat which China poses.

China ecconomy would not collapse, it would evolve... If you embargoed China, you would suffer as much maybe more. The consumer base of China vastly strips that of the US, which is more important than the fact there are "american" companies in China.

@ Zlex: nice post...

 

[FredGarvin]

I hate to say it, but China HAS to be viewed as a rival. I'm not even looking at the military side of things. From a purely economic and technological standpoint, China is not yet, but will be ahead of us and will not need the US to push it's own economy.
Take a look at this current article in Design News http://www.designnews.com/article/CA6286283.html

Here are some pretty stunning eye openers:

China is headed toward a million engineers a year, the experts say.

The damage could be far greater than a simple trade imbalance, experts say. "We already have a trade deficit of enormous proportions, but it has always been counter-balanced by our 'creativity quotient,' which supplies a massive amount of intellectual property into the world economy," notes Ray Almgren, vice president of product marketing and academic relations for Texas-based National Instruments. "But if we don't watch out, we're going to see those innovation numbers start to drop."

Chinese officials reportedly are aiming for 50 percent of the country's college graduates to come from engineering. Today, the figure hovers between 35 to 45 percent, according to the best estimates. The result is that China is by most accounts producing more than 500,000 engineers per year and, according to the ASEE, its total figure may have already reached a million per year.

And the most pathetic of all...

U.S. Coming Up Short on Engineering Degrees
Reliable statistics are few, but numbers published by the National Science Foundation (NSF) indicate that engineering students are a small minority in U.S. colleges. In 2000, NSF figures showed that just 4.7 percent of U.S. undergrad degrees went to engineers, while 38.7 percent of the undergrad degrees in China were awarded to engineering students.

If you look at the chart below that statement, you'll see that the US is putting out engineers, on a percentage basis, equivilent to Kenya. KENYA FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!

I don't think it takes much to see that with that many educated professionals in China, that the time of US led innovation is coming to a close not only in regular products, but military products as well. Especially when we are becoming more a country of lawyers and business people. Combine that with China's lack of concern with environmental reponsibilities and completely different rule set it governs itself by, how can we possibly think to keep up or compete?

I think the most ironic aspect of this whole thing is that the US companies are bankrolling this very movement by going for cheaper labor and outsourcing.

 

[Anttech]

Combine that with China's lack of concern with environmental reponsibilities and completely different rule set it governs itself by, how can we possibly think to keep up or compete?

Lol... you are right, but I don't see the US giving a hoot about the environment either.. Particuarlly if you listen to Bush

 

[FredGarvin]

Lol... you are right, but I don't see the US giving a hoot about the environment either.. Particuarlly if you listen to Bush

Trust me. As a practicing engineer who has been "awarded" the opportunity to deal with some of my company's environmental compliances, the US is light years ahead of many countries.

 

[Smurf]

Trust me. As a practicing engineer who has been "awarded" the opportunity to deal with some of my company's environmental compliances, the US is light years ahead of many countries.

Could you please give us a bit more?

 

[sid_galt]

China ecconomy would not collapse, it would evolve... If you embargoed China, you would suffer as much maybe more. The consumer base of China vastly strips that of the US, which is more important than the fact there are "american" companies in China.

China's economy is supported by US companies. As for the Chinese consumer base, your view rests on the viewpoint that consumers drive the economy. However without producers, consumers amount to nothing at all. And most of the producers in China are the American companies.

 

[FredGarvin]

Could you please give us a bit more?

Well, I am not going to go into too many details and I really don't want to derail the topic... However, as an example, in our business, we have to deal with things like underground storage tanks, above ground storage of jet fuels. This is one of the areas I have to spend a fair amount of time (as well as others like air quality compliance and other areas). The specifications and regulations I have to make sure we comply with start at the federal level as acts of congress that get passed to the EPA and made into federal rules. Those rules are then passed to the states as minimum requirements. The state can then add things as they deem necessary. Anyways, in our business setting here, if an accident were to happen in which we spilled 10 gallons of fuel on the ground, we must comply and report a fuel spill to the state. From there, impact studies are done and the extent of the impact of the release is determined. That requires certified people, geologists and testing. It costs a lot of money. It is definitely in our best interest to make sure that does not happen. All environmental issues hurt us pretty severely. Now, that is from a business standpoint. Joe Schmoe can go into his backyard and pour 10 gallons of fuel into his back yard and have it go into local drinking water and have no reason to do anything about it. The only thing that compels the average citizen from doing that is themselves and peer pressure from those telling them that it is not right to do that.

China is that Joe Schmoe right now. They are trying to curb the damage they are doing because they are realizing it is hurting themselves. But I do think they will do it on their own schedule. Peer pressure from any country is not going to sink in (IMO). Here's a pretty good article:

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3104453

 

[Anttech]

China's economy is supported by US companies. As for the Chinese consumer base, your view rests on the viewpoint that consumers drive the economy. However without producers, consumers amount to nothing at all. And most of the producers in China are the American companies.

Lets just say I give you the benifit of the doubt and accept what you state as a fact. Do you honestly think that an "American" company will pull out of china if the US puts embargos on China? As we both know China's consumer base is >1 billion.. An "American" company is going to stay put in china. just like every other business in the world, especially as the chinese start to have more extra cash to spend.. What is happening in China is not reversable by your government no matter what they do... Anyway any "American" company that is in China is not really an "American" company any more its a "global" company in a ever increasing Capitalist world

 

[Informal Logic]

PBS Frontline did a great story on Wal-Mart, which is all tied into trade with China. I highly recommend this program if you have an opportunity to view it.

When capitalism is practiced according to true market forces that is one thing. But when China undervalues its currency, under pays its workforce, subsidizes its companies, etc., they are able to dump goods in the US market that are impossible for anyone to compete against. As a result, the US is exporting raw goods to China and importing finished goods from China, which means the US is like a third-world country engaged in terms of trade that result in ever growing trade deficits. Interestingly, Wal-Mart's profits in 2005 are very similar to US trade deficits in 2005. The only people who believe it is healthy for the US to behave like a third-world country are greedy CEO's who work for Wal-Mart.

Until China practices fair trade, it is an adversary. And companies like Wal-Mart are detrimental to all countries.

 

[SOS2008]

The problem with most trade agreements--including the more recent CAFTA--hinges on expendable income. The U.S. can't export finished products, for example television sets to China because most Chinese can't afford to make that kind of purchase. The U.S. should have agreements with true trading partners (i.e., two-way trade).

I can't help but wonder what the long term plans are for companies like Wal-Mart, assuming they have any (or give a damn). If they continue to put Americans out of work with their monopoly tactics (outsourcing, demands for under biding, etc), and/or employ Americans at very low wages with no benefits, how will Americans continue to have buying power in the future? Then what market will they sell their crappy goods to? They are shooting themselves in the foot while they destroy the U.S. economy, and the world for that matter.

What gets me is their stores and products suck. I don't know why anyone shops there. Saving a couple of cents is not worth it.

 

[FredGarvin]

What gets me is their stores and products suck. I don't know why anyone shops there. Saving a couple of cents is not worth it.

Why do people go insane to save 2 cents on a gallon of gas? In the end they may have saved 30-50 cents on the fill up. It's a learned disorder.