Dismiss Notice
Join Physics Forums Today!
The friendliest, high quality science and math community on the planet! Everyone who loves science is here!

Climate expert fears for London

  1. Jul 15, 2004 #1

    Ivan Seeking

    User Avatar
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member

  2. jcsd
  3. Jul 16, 2004 #2
    Sure enough, I'm not letting you down.

    First of all http://www.ch.cam.ac.uk/CUCL/staff/dak.html [Broken] is not a climate expert and second his statements are loaded with errors and make believes.

    No, the ice on Antarctica is equivalent to 78 meters sea rise, without isostatic reajustment and assuming that the coastlines remain the same, looking at the present sea surface area.

    Moreover the average temp of Antarctica is -37 degrees with max temp in summer well below freezing. If that would warm with a couple of degrees, the result would be increasing snowfall and more ice accumulation and hence sea level lowering. At present the Amundsen weather station on the Southpole dead centre is indicating a slight cooling trend.

    So it's only to "offer scary scenarios" with very little reality checks.

    No, the Kilimanjaro glaciers are evaporating (sublimating), not melting, due to increased aridity. The local temperature in Afrika has been very stable the past few decades. Nobody seems to find it curious that the Kilimanjaro glaciers date back from the end of the ice age some 11,000 years ago. During the ice age they did not exist. Normal?

    But the stereotype alarm has rung once more for a ghost problem. It's politics, not science.
    Last edited by a moderator: May 1, 2017
  4. Jul 16, 2004 #3
    Time for some countering.

    http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/gat2003-600x370.gif [Broken] is the percieved global temperature jump in the last part of the former century, a.k.a the infamous hockeystick.

    Why is the feature not working?

    And [PLAIN]http://www.usefulinfo.co.uk/images/natural_factors.gif [Broken] is the temperature trend in the last seven years.

    GHCN:Global Surface Temperature anomalies (weather stations)
    Christy & Spencer: analysis of satellite measured lower atmosphere temperature anomalies.
    SOI: Southern Oscillation Index
    PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation
    sunspot counts
    All from January 1997 to June 2004.

    So what do we see? the global surface temperature trend in the last seven years is just about 0,00, give or take a few decimals. whereas it appeared to have risen 0,4 degrees between 1980 and 2000 or a trend of 2 degrees per century.

    Now what would have caused this strange behavior?

    The answers gives me enough reason to predict that the global temp will be within 0,5 degrees from now in the next 50 years.
    Last edited by a moderator: May 1, 2017
  5. Jul 16, 2004 #4
    Actually I got the dataset of the average global temperature deviation of that second graph and I have to adjust the 0,00 estimation of the current global warming trend. It is 0,0002 degrees celsius per year or 0,02 degrees per century. The trendline unit is in months

    http://home.wanadoo.nl/bijkerk/trend.jpg [Broken]

    That's plain verifiable data. No sentimental rethorics.
    Last edited by a moderator: May 1, 2017
  6. Jul 16, 2004 #5
    Please see my post about rebuilding London and New York on Greenland. :smile:
Share this great discussion with others via Reddit, Google+, Twitter, or Facebook