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News Close Election in the UK

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  1. May 6, 2015 #1

    lisab

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    Anyone have an opinion of how this is going to go down?

    Regardless of how the election goes, personally I'd be shocked if the UK left the EU. But if it happens, it wouldn't be the first time I have been caught off guard, wrt world affairs!

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/06/us-britain-election-voting-idUSKBN0NR2LU20150506
     
  2. jcsd
  3. May 6, 2015 #2
    Wow, to me if feels like the last election was only months ago.
     
  4. May 7, 2015 #3

    Ryan_m_b

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    I just cast my vote. In terms of how it's going down there's a broad consensus amongst commentators that this will be another election without a majority. However it's very unlikely to be the same coalition, the lib dems lost a lot of the popularity they had last election by getting into bed with the conservatives. Another huge difference is that the SNP is set to become the third largest party by picking up nearly every Scottish seat. UKIP is the party mostly campaigning for an EU exit and whilst they're popular somewhat in the polls (around 15% of the vote) they're unlikely to get many seats thanks to first past the post voting. Same for the greens. In Wales Plaid Cymru are set to do well I think and I've got no idea about the Northern Ireland parties.

    Tomorrow will be very interesting indeed. There's bound to be a few days scrabbling as party leaders try to form coalitions to gain a majority. Interestingly both main parties have ruled out a coalition with the SNP, IMO because they both campaigned so hard against Scottish independence that they can't u-turn now and buddy up with the party still gunning for more Scottish power.

    We may have a situation in which the major parties can't form a coalition in which case one of them will try and lead with a minority party. There's been a lot of talk around "confidence and supply" recently which would mean a minority party would form a loose (I.e non official) alliance with one or more smaller parties. In return for the ruling party supporting some minority policies the minority parties promise not to contribute to a vote of no confidence. A no confidence vote is a possibility if we end up with a minority ruling party, traditionally they've not lasted long and if that's the case again there will be another election very soon.

    One final personal observation but there's been a strong undercurrent for vote reform support over the last decade in the UK. There was a referendum a few years ago that decided to keep FPTP but arguably it was hamstrung by not offering an alternative anyone wants. We may see another serious push to scrap FPTP in favour of STV.
     
  5. May 7, 2015 #4
  6. May 7, 2015 #5

    Ryan_m_b

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    The reaction here to that seems to be utter shock (basing this on social media and a flick through the news). The exit polls haven't been this different to the opinion polls in over twenty years.

    Also quick clarification Greg, the exit polls show the Tories as having the largest party but not a majority. Even if it is 100% correct they'd still have to form a coalition (which could be very difficult given the fact the two other largest parties are strongly against them) and if they can't survive a likely no confidence vote.
     
  7. May 7, 2015 #6

    George Jones

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    I am hoping that the exit polls are as wrong as they were in 1992.
     
  8. May 7, 2015 #7

    Vanadium 50

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    The Torygraph...err...Telegraph is predicting 316 for the Conservatives, and 10 for the Liberal Democrats. (Who seem to be having a very rough night) That gives them 326, and they need 323, right?
     
  9. May 7, 2015 #8
    I wonder if John Bercow will be re-elected Speaker?

    (I am sad that Dawn Primarolo isn't running for Bristol South, as she made a good Deputy Speaker.)
     
  10. May 7, 2015 #9
    They need a minimum of 326 (out of a total of 650 seats). I'm not sure if another Tory/Lib Dem coalition is guaranteed though.

    The exit polls look surprisingly accurate. The SNP was forecast to win 58 out of Scotland's 59 seats. So far the SNP has won 50 out of the counted 52 seats.
     
  11. May 7, 2015 #10
    CNN is reporting SNP has 52 seats. Labour, 162. Conservatives 149.
     
  12. May 7, 2015 #11
    Scotland is nearly there, only 2 constituencies remaining. The SNP has 54 seats so far, costing labour 40 seats in Scotland!

    here's the BBC live coverage if anyone's interested:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results

    Labour is actually not doing too bad in England, but their heavy loss in Scotland is proving disastrous.
     
  13. May 8, 2015 #12
    With only 90 constituencies to go, it looks like the tories might just about get a majority.
     
  14. May 8, 2015 #13

    Ryan_m_b

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    Well this has shocked a lot of people. The Tories might actually get a majority government, albeit a slim one.
     
  15. May 8, 2015 #14

    Vanadium 50

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    Sinn Fein will take their seats? That's even more remarkable!

    It's moot, since the Conservatives have 325 now, with a forecast of 331. (According to the BBC)
     
  16. May 8, 2015 #15

    Ryan_m_b

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    The Tories just passed 326 with 7 to go. Clegg, Milliband and Farage have all stepped down. The nature of politics in the near future is going to be very different.
     
  17. May 8, 2015 #16
    I feel there is something to be said about the fact that UKIP came third in the popular vote at 12.6% of the vote share, and yet they only got 1 seat. On the other hand, the Lib Dems came fourth at 7.8% but they secured 8 seats. I know that the FPTP system is unlikely to change anytime soon but this is getting slightly ridiculous.

    Now that the tories got the majority, the EU referendum should take place in 2017.
     
  18. May 8, 2015 #17

    Astronuc

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    Apparently, not even close. Cameron sweeps to unexpected triumph in British election
    http://news.yahoo.com/uks-cameron-p...bour-routed-scotland-014734115--business.html

    In Scottish nationalist landslide, 20-year-old student takes seat from Labour
    http://news.yahoo.com/scottish-nationalist-landslide-20-old-student-takes-seat-040004140.html

    http://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2015-england-32605050
    http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2015/results
    Looks like conservatives got 331.

    Interesting outcome.


    Hmmm. Monster Raving Loony Party got 3,898 votes, but not enough to get a seat.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2015
  19. May 8, 2015 #18

    SteamKing

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  20. May 8, 2015 #19

    Vanadium 50

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    Ironic, that the LDs benefitted from the very policy they opposed.
     
  21. May 8, 2015 #20

    PeroK

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    The 8 seats are not worth much. Under PR, 7.8% of the vote would get about 50 seats. The real winners are Conservative and Labour. The Con's 37% got them 331 seats and Labour's 30% got them 232.

    The big losers are UKIP, of course, but the system does the Lib Dems no favours. UKIP's nearly 4 million votes (over 12%) for 1 seat must be a record.
     
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