[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.

A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.

[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.

[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.

[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal | Donald Trump Donald Trump | Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton | Gary Johnson | Jill Stein | Evan McMullin | Gloria E. La Riva | Dan R. Vacek | Write-In | Darrell L. Castle | Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente | Lynn S. Kahn |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

SurveyMonkey | 11/7 | X 1.00000 | 47.0000 - -2.2023 bias | 38.0000 - 2.5998 bias | 9.0000 - 3.8473 bias | 3.0000 - 2.3756 bias | ||||||||

YouGov | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 37.3000 - 0.0142 bias | 40.4000 - 1.4293 bias | 5.6000 - 3.6133 bias | 1.6000 - 1.3922 bias | ||||||||

Reuters/Ipsos | 11/6 | X 0.98333 | 44.0000 - 0.8539 bias | 44.0000 - 3.1139 bias | ||||||||||

Selzer & Co. | 11/4 | X 0.95000 | 46.0000 - -0.5569 bias | 39.0000 - 1.2864 bias | 6.0000 - 2.4463 bias | 1.0000 - 1.6396 bias | ||||||||

Loras College | 11/3 | X 0.93333 | 43.0000 - -1.2295 bias | 44.0000 - 3.1867 bias | 3.0000 - 0.8422 bias | 3.0000 - 1.5194 bias | ||||||||

Emerson College | 11/3 | X 0.93333 | 44.0000 - 0.6280 bias | 41.3000 - 1.1763 bias | 5.2000 - 1.4509 bias | 4.3000 - 1.6139 bias | ||||||||

RABA Research | 11/2 | X 0.91667 | 44.0000 - -4.0208 bias | 41.0000 - 4.8380 bias | 5.0000 - 1.5398 bias | 2.0000 - 1.3947 bias | 2.0000 - 1.3380 bias | |||||||

Quinnipiac University | 10/26 | X 0.80000 | 44.0000 - -0.2103 bias | 44.0000 - 1.0253 bias | 4.0000 - 2.4881 bias | 1.0000 - 1.1538 bias | ||||||||

Lucid | 10/10 | X 0.53333 | 36.0000 - -3.2437 bias | 41.0000 - 2.5143 bias | 10.0000 - 5.9289 bias | 2.0000 - 1.8425 bias | ||||||||

Monmouth University | 9/14 | X 0.10000 | 45.0000 - -0.9087 bias | 37.0000 - 1.9539 bias | 8.0000 - 0.8035 bias | 2.0000 - 0.1881 bias | ||||||||

TOTAL | 44.162984 | 38.957428 | 3.254221 | 0.672314 | 0.662000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |