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Do you dare to make a fool of yourself?

  1. Nov 2, 2004 #1

    arildno

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    I certainly do (perhaps because I can't look otherwise).

    In any case, this is the thread for bold, brazen (unsupportabe?) predictions for who's going to be USA's next president, and by what margin:

    I predict:
    Bush is going to crush Kerry; not quite a Reagan/Mondale repeat, but close enough.
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Nov 2, 2004 #2
    I think Bush will win 15-20% votes over Kerry.
     
  4. Nov 2, 2004 #3

    arildno

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    Possibly, I was thinking in terms of electoral candidates/voters(?).

    Mondale got 13 I think, it won't be THAT bad for Kerry, though..
     
  5. Nov 2, 2004 #4

    Gokul43201

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    You can't judge if an election was "close" by electoral votes alone (if you and I have the same definition of 'close').

    If candidate A wins every one of the states by a margin of 1 vote, over B, A would win the elections by a margin of 538 to 0. You wouldn't call that close; I would.
     
  6. Nov 2, 2004 #5
    kerrys gonna win , 65-45
     
  7. Nov 2, 2004 #6

    arildno

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    Gokul, that's basically what I think (speculate) will happen:
    Kerry will perhaps eke out a 100 electoral seats or so; the percentwise distribution will be closer to 50-50

    Well, I'll get embarassed about my prediction soon enough..
     
  8. Nov 2, 2004 #7

    arildno

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    65+45=110..:wink:
     
  9. Nov 2, 2004 #8

    Gokul43201

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    Perhaps you'll change it if I tell you this :

    Polls as of Oct 31 had Kerry with more than a 10% lead in about 10 states (Calif, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington) that make up about 150 electoral votes. Those are considered to be a lock-in.
     
  10. Nov 2, 2004 #9

    arildno

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    This is MY unsupportable prediction:
    He'll lose California!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  11. Nov 2, 2004 #10
    Popular vote: Kerry will beat Bush by probably not more than a percent and certainly not more than 2%. About 0.3%-0.5% is probably reasonable.

    Electoral college: Kerry: 311, Bush: 227. Man, am I optimistic or what? LoL.
     
  12. Nov 2, 2004 #11

    graphic7

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    Well, the conditions in TN, specifically my part, aren't fairing too well. Most of my peers that I've polled have voted for Bush, and from the looks of things, mostly everybody here has. I expect most of the southern states to swing towards Bush, while most of the northern states go for Kerry. The polls have stated the same.

    The winning canidate, I believe, will have just a slight lead over the other one (in terms of popular votes). This is a very close election as we all know.
     
  13. Nov 2, 2004 #12
    on purpose, i tried to make a fool of myself :wink:
     
  14. Nov 2, 2004 #13
    It will be close.... But bush will praobly come out on Top... just look at some recent polling data. www.race2004.net
     
  15. Nov 2, 2004 #14

    russ_watters

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    Bush will win by a small but statistically significant margin (ie, not a statistical tie like last time). I've been predicting a Bush win for about a year now....

    edit: caveat, with all the people standing in 3 hour lines in some of the key states, it could be pretty late before enough votes are reported to have a good idea who won.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2004
  16. Nov 2, 2004 #15

    Gokul43201

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    Bush wins with less than 300 electoral votes.
    Bush wins the pop vote by less than 4%
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2004
  17. Nov 2, 2004 #16
  18. Nov 2, 2004 #17
    I'm not sure on all of this, Ohio is a real cluster F. Fla is going to bush... but really... if he dosn't win Ohio then the uppe rmidwest needs to swing for him.. if one of them dosn't hes done.
     
  19. Nov 2, 2004 #18
    Looks like GBush is pulling ahead, so guys; are you ready to go to army and fight for "freedom and democracy"?
     
  20. Nov 3, 2004 #19

    arildno

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    Hmm..was I WAY OFF, or what?? :redface:
    Oh well,..
     
  21. Nov 3, 2004 #20

    Gokul43201

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    Final score will be Bush 286, Kerry 252
     
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