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News EU and refugee crisis part 2

  1. Sep 4, 2015 #1
    2 years ago Astronuc created a thread concerning EU refugee crisis but it does not seem attract much attention. In the meantime the situation deteriorated:

    A few nice graphs with statistics:

    So there is an awkward question what to do with the problem. There is one very big perverse incentive that is not mentioned openly - if a person stays in his awful country, then not many people in Europe care much. Sure, some minor humanitarian aid would be sent from time to time, to calm down conscience, but not much more. It would be perceived as additional help, and if it not work, then well - not our problem. However, if the same person arrives to an European country, then well... should be taken care off. Thus it seems that such people are being invited to Europe.

    Solution I - take more refugees. In my language they would be called as literally "cuckoo egg", which more or less should be translated as "hot potato". So idea is to move those refugees somewhere else.
    There is idea of to split those refugees among countries based on some population /GDP. Austria was especially vocal about this subject. There are however some minor flaws in this idea:
    -in East Europe the refugee crisis is a urgent and serious problem as... Russian imperialism from Austrian perspective (I'm curious whether someone already offered Austrians/Germans taking refugees on condition of moving military bases east ;) )
    -Unless we're supposed to keep those refugees in detention camps, no one specified how shall we prevent them escaping to Germany though open borders.
    Also this idea do not specify what shall be done in case of such success would attract even more refugees to Europe.

    Solution II - send army and stabilize those failed states. Not officially discussed. There would be a serious problem of huge expenses and flag wrapped coffins coming back home. Plus an epic level challenge of nation building, which was faced by Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan.
    If that wasn't enough, then as said Dotini:
    The same crisis, from the moment you sent army, would be treated as your fault and responsibility. Thus you would expected to take refugees. So better keep it as not your problem.

    Solution III - revival of nationalism. So far EU enfant terrible, Viktor Orbán (Hungarian prime minister) started in hurry putting barbed wire on his border. He was mumbling also something about not wanting Muslim and mentioning prior Osman Empire occupation of his country. Judging from setting fire to a few refugee camps in Germany he is not the only person who thinks in that way, just lack of PC in his country let to top politician to speak his own mind.

    Best for whom? Because such people would be a terrible resource drain for first few years. Security threat. And so far Muslims don't integrate well in Western societies, so presumably would be also a resource drain for a few generations. (also indirect one as in democratic process, judging from the outlook of Muslim states, they would rather not support parties preoccupied with good governance, and more supporting parties who would just promise them goodies. Sure, we already have plenty of such local people, but it would move the balance in undesired direction)

    There is one more thing that is not being mentioned, or if mentioned being described as some irrational racism among bottom strata of society. Not so irrational. In case of any riots/crime increase, they would be hit, so left wing leaning elites would make them a sermon concerning tolerance, while staying in good parts of cities. Also in case of all goodies provided by safety net, discovering that there are plenty of competitors who deserve them more is not so encouraging.

    There is also a not mentioned problem of ideology reducing effectiveness of state apparatus of repression. It is considered so nice, however... Let's think about the problem of Romanian Roma (Gypsies). It would be highly racist to let all Romanians in, except them. Highly racist and so on, guaranteed ruling by European Court of Justice. But if one just not let any Romanians... Exactly... Romania had problems to join Schengen Zone exactly because of that, and it was highly improper to mention what's exactly the problem.
    This problem is seen by masses. So actually they start discussing merits of even more draconian policies, that would be necessary just to keep authoritarian-leaning order.

    OK, so my guess is that we would use Solution I for a while. Unless a miracle in the Middle East happen, we would reach a turning point during which masses would be vivid enough to support Solution III. Not nice perspective, but seems for me the most likely, based on contemporary trends.
  2. jcsd
  3. Sep 4, 2015 #2
    I don't think any country should be obligated to accept migrants and refugees. These people are only going to burden the economies of these countries, and there's no reason they should have to deal with someone else’s mess.

    Instead of fleeing the country and looking for handouts from the rest of the world, maybe the Syrian people should try and do something about the conditions at home - like other people have in the past - and fix the root of the problem. I know that's easy for me to say, but just because it's difficult or dangerous doesn’t mean it's not the correct solution.
  4. Sep 4, 2015 #3
    I thought that was clear from the context. Best for the people facing the crisis, whose country imploded on itself. Of course it's better for everyone else to do nothing about it the same way it's better for a commuter not to move his/her bag from an empty seat in a crowded train, but that goes without saying.

    Notice that my comment was in the context of what can we do to stop Assad and Daesh, not specifically addressing the refugees crisis. If Syria can indeed be rescued after all, then it would be better to support refugee camps in the neighbouring countries (Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan are already hosting around 3.8 million Syrian refugees).

    I don't think you can realistically ask a father to sit tight waiting for a barrel bomb to claim his children's lives. Bare in mind 240,000 people were already killed in this civil war.
  5. Sep 4, 2015 #4
    Sorry for taking it out of context. From each individual perspective - it is unquestionably better to escape from a war torn third world country to a stable first world one.

    Of course in this multiagent system, we reach out a situation which is undesired by any of players, except of course of ISIS.

    Depends what you mean by that. In EU we think how to ask him to exactly do that, and are surprised that it does not work at all...
  6. Sep 4, 2015 #5
    Islam and Western values simply do not mix. We are literally watching a powder keg get filled to the brim. How many more terrorist incidents will happen before the immigration crisis explodes and ultra nationalists start doing some pretty bad things? Imagine overnight in the US we had a 51st state formed, and this new state needed to fed, sheltered, clothed, and would expect welfare payments for income every month indefinitely.
  7. Sep 4, 2015 #6


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    It is a big crisis at the moment. I was wondering if there was a thread on the subject. I've been reading the news about and the sheer numbers of folks trying to cross the Mediterranean to get to Europe.

    Tragic image of drowned Syrian toddler highlights human cost of refugee crisis (graphic image of Aylan Kurdi on the beach)

    'My children slipped through my hands': father of drowned Syrian boy

    Drowned Syrian boys buried in hometown they fled
    http://news.yahoo.com/bodies-drowned-syrian-boys-returned-home-burial-080516499.html# [Broken]

    Cameron bows to pressure to take more Syrian refugees

    The western nations were warned against de-stabilizing Iraq and Syria. Daesh coalesced in the prisons in Iraq, then in the void caused by the disruption of the communities left in the wake of the occupation of Iraq and chaos in Syria. That's a separate topic.

    What to do for folks wanting to escape Daesh and hostile regimes? Aylan's father wanted safety and security, and better lives for his wife and two sons. Now he buries them in Kobane, and will stay nearby them.
    Last edited by a moderator: May 7, 2017
  8. Sep 4, 2015 #7
  9. Sep 4, 2015 #8
    These people are not "Islam". These are refugees who (most of them, not all) happen to be muslims. It seems that every group of people on earth get to be individuals apart from muslims who have this one label that tells everything one needs to know about them. They can't be individuals like everyone else. They're just muslims.

    We're speaking about refugees escaping a civil war and the first thing that came to your mind is 'terrorists'. I can't think of a better definition of prejudice mate! Please let that sink in for a while.

    It's ironic that Aylan's family is actually from Kobane that was besieged by ISIS for months. These people are literally escaping from terrorists just to be called terrorists themselves. No evidence is needed of course.
  10. Sep 4, 2015 #9


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    Based on the many Muslim and Western friends and colleagues, I would have to disagree. I occasionally visit a local mosque with a good friend, and I find the folks there share Western values, especially when it comes to hard work, reverence for humanity and human life, and community involvement.
  11. Sep 4, 2015 #10
    The only person who has used the word 'terrorist' to drscribe the refugees in any of their posts was you. I'm simply saying that terrorist events will probably happen and then blame will be placed on people like the refugees by ultra nationalists.
    Immigration has always raised tensions. Not just in Germany or Hungary or France but everywhere. No one likes an influx of people who are not like them. Even the US resented the Eastern Europeans, the Irish, Italians, etc., who came here in the 19th century and 20th.

    Reasonable policies to control immigration are necessary everywhere. Their goal should not be to stop it since that is impossible but to manage it. I reckon' every country in the world at least has the right to know exactly who they're letting into their borders, right now itbis a free for all that is going to foment tension with natives.

    Anyone that opposes to having their own country overrun and transformed overnight is painted as 'racist', but count the number of people wealthy ME states are letting in.
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2015
  12. Sep 4, 2015 #11
    I definitely agree, on the other hand and it seems like there is always a blasted other hand, the refugees are coming from an area of the world where terrorists have come from in the past. They are also coming with very little or no security screening. ISIS has declared that they will kill Americans in America and we have to be wary of that. Yes the refugees are people yet there is currently no method in existence to determine which person is a potential terrorist.

    If ISIS wanted a method of moving a large number of terrorists into Europe and the USA undetected, I can't think of a better way than to mix that large number in with a massive number of refugees. It is sad to even think of it, but that is what could happen. Since 911 just the possibility of any terrorist movement must be eliminated.

    Refugees have been travelling north through Italy without so much as a baggage check.

  13. Sep 5, 2015 #12
    In the US Muslim intergration seems to work, we have a long history here of immigration and a civil rights movement for minorities, but Europe is a completely different story. We already saw in 2005 in France what happened with disenfranchised Muslim youth. In fact, he NYT had apiece on this exact topic a little while back on how integration just isn't working in a country like France:


    Wearing a headscarf, hijab, and niqab is not tolerated in France, and that alone has ruffled a lot of feathers. It is like trying to mix oil and water. If the hijab is central to your beliefs, yet you put someone who wears a hijab in a society that absolutely will not tolerate it, well then you start to have problems.
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2015
  14. Sep 5, 2015 #13
    Don't mix - it would be to far reaching conclusion - judging from cases where it mixed like Tunisia, Turkey or Kurdistan. However it does not mix well.

    This is unfortunately more or less correct.

    Hossam, Astronuc:
    Actually, there is one awkward question - were they in immediate threat at this moment? Because Kurds with a help of Western airstrikes had Kobane defended. Thus, I would not consider them as political refugees, but as economical ones, as their home town was in ruins but more or less safe.

    As you probably know insurance companies demand higher premiums from young males. Does it mean that they are prejudiced - sexists and ageist? Or maybe they behave highly rational facing increased risk? Because for me it seems quite rational to mark being Muslims as a risk factor.
  15. Sep 5, 2015 #14
    The online edition of most popular daily Polish newspaper (it has left wing bent, but in fiscally responsible way) blocked comments on articles concerning refugees/immigrants, complaining about flood of racist comments. Not bad result for a newspaper where in comments it was usual to mock the Church or nationalist parties. Solution III is coming...
    (the highest irony is that in Poland we practically have no refugees)

    It seems that Refugees/Migrants won the battle of Budapest and are allowed to go to Austria and Germany.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/europeans-risk-becoming-minority-in-own-continent-hungarys-pm-says-as-migrants-stranded-on-train/article26224299/ [Broken]

    Anyway, I think that was a first documented case of Orban trying to do a favour for the West (sure, in his specific way, but still it counts). He tried to block them, but could have just let slip them through his country.
    Last edited by a moderator: May 7, 2017
  16. Sep 5, 2015 #15


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    Hungary bus fleet delivers 4,000 migrants to Austria welcome
    http://news.yahoo.com/hungarian-bus-fleet-delivers-migrants-austria-welcome-062852405.html [Broken]

    Last edited by a moderator: May 7, 2017
  17. Sep 5, 2015 #16
    I misunderstood you there. I apologise.
    The rich gulf states haven't taken any, which is of course reprehensible. I think most people would hold the EU to a higher standard regarding human rights.
  18. Sep 5, 2015 #17


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    I don't know the answer to this, but if there is not ready access to food, water and shelter, or if there is a potential threat of a group like Daesh, then I would expect a man or woman would wish to find a more safe and secure environment for their family and/or each other. Looking at images of Kobane, it seems rather bleak there. If I was Abdullah Kurdi, I probably would have done the same thing - try to take my wife and children to safety. Other migrants/refugees may have fled imminent danger, but I don't know, since I'm not there to assess the situation of each person. Clearly Daesh and other militant groups, including the Syrian army, put folks at risk.
  19. Sep 5, 2015 #18
    There's nothing "Muslim" about these values. These are just ordinary HUMAN values that we all have innately in us, regardless of where we were born. If you want to define "Muslim" values, then you should look at the values a person has only because they are a Muslim. These include the subjugation of Women, hatred and violence towards the Jews, a belief in martyrdom and religion by the sword, etc... no, not all Muslims believe these things, but if you do believe them, there's an extremely good chance it's because you're a Muslim.

    There is a huge cultural disconnect between Western society and that of the middle east, and I don't believe they will ever coexist peacefully, so long as people's minds are dominated by their religion. The presence of millions of more Muslims in the EU will increase occurrences of violence, terrorism, and conflict which is directly connected to religion.

    As others have pointed out, why is it the EUs responsibility to deal with this mess? Where are their Muslim brothers in the surrounding regions to help out?
  20. Sep 5, 2015 #19
    this is the elephant in the room; and EU leaders are afraid to say it.

    The gulf states have enormous wealth and enormous land resources: and are doing nothing to help.

    We need to take a long hard look at the people that are managing to get to Europe. Many have paid people smugglers thousands of pounds. Helping people that have the money to escape merely leaves the problem behind for those without money to escape. Emptying an entire region due to war does not solve the problem - it moves it. Europe has got a very very long bloody history. Even those of use not very old (I'm 44) can remember genocides in our borders. The disaster waiting to happen is for another charismatic politician with a popular solution; only this time there may be a pan-European consensus.

    I'm very aware that Europe, and especially the EU which has failed spectacularly - is on the brink of something very very VERY dangerous here.
  21. Sep 5, 2015 #20


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    Exactly. Common values, shared among us.
  22. Sep 5, 2015 #21
    Nice platitude, but not real life.

    People do not share such common values, and they are certanly not innate.

    Many Muslims believe apostates should be killed; homosexuals should be killed; women are worth inherently less than men.

    It took many "western" nations centuries to find these "innate values" (when did blacks get the vote in the USA? when was homosexuality legalised in the UK? when was rape inside marriage criminalised...)

    yes, nice platitude.
  23. Sep 5, 2015 #22
    With elites of core countries in denial phase... Do you think that well... Imperium Europeanum would be so bad solution comparing to continent plunging in chaos?
  24. Sep 5, 2015 #23
    i have no idea what you are trying to say
  25. Sep 5, 2015 #24


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  26. Sep 6, 2015 #25
    meanwhile in Saudi Arabia

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