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European Winters Could Disappear by 2080

  1. Aug 19, 2004 #1

    Ivan Seeking

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  2. jcsd
  3. Aug 20, 2004 #2
    Well yes looking at the 1990-1998 period yes Europe has warmed considerably. After that there was stabilisation.

    Incidentely Europe also is the main proof against Mann's (corrected) hockeystick.

    http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/1000yearssmall.jpg

    As there are some very long recorded real temperatures, which of course were not used to create the hockeystick.

    http://members.lycos.nl/errenwijlens/co2/errenrecon.gif

    On the long run we are just on top of one of several spikes. In ten years the alarmists will announce the ice age.
     
  4. Aug 21, 2004 #3
    A better graph even.
     
  5. Aug 22, 2004 #4
    I will not disagree. The summertime tepmerature in Norway has been up to 35 degrees the last three or four years! Usually it is around 17-25. That is alarming!
     
  6. Aug 23, 2004 #5
    Okay perhaps try this link and click on Norway on the world map to look at station data. Try to disregard urban stations. Those tend to give a false "Urban Heat Isand" Effect You will find that Gardemoen has indeed higher summer averages but not especially weird. Note that the summer of Orland Lii was less warm than 1953-1955 and the last couple of years. Really nothing specific going on.
     
  7. Aug 23, 2004 #6
    4 years is hardly a period you would bases a trend prediction on.
    The effect we'll notice the most is the increase in downpour.
    I'd say the increase in floodproblems is more severe than a bit higher temperatures.
    A summer like last year is an incident, not the way it is going to be from now on.
    Appart from the possible increase in flood problems, i'm not that worried yet.
     
  8. Aug 23, 2004 #7
    Flood problems?

    Thinking about sea level rising. There is lot of commotion about it. There is some proof that sea level rise is not nearly as the alarmists think:

    http://www.john-daly.com/deadisle/
    http://flatrock.org.nz/topics/environment/poseidon_adventure.htm

    Flooding is more related with storms and here are some observations about storm frequencies worldwide:

    http://www.gvc.gu.se/biblio/b-serin/absB224.htm

    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2003GL018351.shtml

    http://files.raycommedia.com/wtoc/tropical/history.htm


    Orlando statistics:
    All are proving clearly that "Global warming" is causing less storms. :biggrin: :rofl: So you're right not to worry
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2004
  9. Aug 23, 2004 #8
    Like i said, only a predicted increase in rain (forgive me for not having an article with it, i'm at work. They would look a bit odd at me if i was spending an hour to find the article i mean).

    Since were at the end of quite some rivers, an increase in rain upstream could present some nuisance. (but then again, who's going to live on a river wash-land :confused:)

    Ahh what do i care, i'm living high and dry :approve: (at least for now :grumpy: ).
     
  10. Aug 24, 2004 #9

    Ivan Seeking

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    For starters
    This ignores the purpose of the paper which is to study another phenomenon all together.

    http://www.gvc.gu.se/biblio/b-serin/absB224.htm

    So have you factored in the effects of the NAO with global warming or are you ignoring the effects of this cycle completely in your comments?
     
  11. Aug 24, 2004 #10
    Well, you did not recognise the tongue in cheek. There are some comprehensive studies about the cyclic nature of storms. Can't find them back right now. The point is that global warming can be blamed for anything you want. It's getting drier, global warming! It's getting wetter, global warming! The Arctic ice pack is melting, global warming etc.

    Incidentely, about that last one, the alleged warming of the Arctic it's related anyway, I just finished an afternoon of hard excel work with as result.

    I think I found all the still operational weather stations situated at over 70 degrees North as given in that earlier link. I devided the Arctic area in the four main lattitude sectors to determine the average for each sector.

    Sector 180W-90W: 2 stations: Barrow west end and Resolute
    Sector 90W - 0: 4 stations: Jan Mayen, Eureka, Clyde NWT, Danmarkhavn
    Sector 0 - 90E: 4 stations: Svalbard, Ostrov Dikson, Ostrov Vize, Bjornoya
    Sector 90E-180E: 4 stations: GMO Im, (K)Hantanga, Cokurdah, Ostrov Kotel

    The average of each sector is avered again in the total series and also a 20 year smoothend average has been added.

    The trendline indicates that the total Arctic air temperature has warmed a staggering 0,15 degrees the last century. Not even the forcing value according to the Stefan Boltzman law

    Notice that the nineteen forties were at least as "warm" as it is today. Now there may be much more correlation between the Arctic Oscilation and the temperature trend of the Arctic than with more carbon in the air.
     
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