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Extreme event analysis- Gumbel distribution

  1. Jan 10, 2007 #1
    1. The problem statement, all variables and given/known data
    The annual maximum rate of discharge of a particular river is thought to have a type 1 extreme vale distribution (Gumbel) with a mean of 10,000cubic feet/sec and standard deviation of 300cubic feet/sec

    2. Relevant equations
    1.compute probability P[annual maximum discharge ≥ 15,000cubic feet/sec
    2.find an expression for the cdf of the rivers maximum discharge during the 20 year life time of an anticipated flood project
    3.what is the probability that the maximum of 20 years will exceed 15,000cubic feet/sec

    3. The attempt at a solution

    F(y)=exp[-e -a(y-u)]

    1. probability
    p(x≥15,000 ) =1-p(x≤15,000)

    This is as far as I go am not sure where to start.
  2. jcsd
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