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Friday the 13th, 2029? The odds of impact

  1. Dec 27, 2004 #1

    Ivan Seeking

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    In the Astronomy Events thread, Check is citing odds that are even worse now!

    http://space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_041224.html

    :surprised Those odds are getting a little close for my taste.
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Dec 27, 2004 #2
    LoL. I was wondering if anyone was reading that. I tell ya that astro events thread gets next to no traffic. LoL

    Well, again, the odds of impact have gone from:

    1 in 300 --> 1 in 63 --> 1 in 45 --> now 1 in 37.

    Yellow alert!
     
  4. Dec 27, 2004 #3

    Integral

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    Man oh man... things are starting to look bad for my 80th birthday!
     
  5. Dec 27, 2004 #4
    I mean that makes me feel a little better but still... I kinda like having greater assurances that I'll live to see my 44th birthday... like back to zero on the Torino scale would be nice. :bugeye:
     
  6. Dec 27, 2004 #5

    Ivan Seeking

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    That was before Check's update... Your chances of death by asteroid have improved a little. :biggrin:

    Note that even if this should hit, this would not constitute an extinction level, or even a global event in terms of energy. It would be bigger than Tunguska. That event leveled trees for about 10 miles in all directions.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event
    http://www.psi.edu/projects/siberia/siberia.html

    Imagine if this hit a major city. :bugeye:
     
  7. Dec 27, 2004 #6
  8. Dec 27, 2004 #7

    Ivan Seeking

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    Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. :biggrin:
     
  9. Dec 28, 2004 #8

    Chronos

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    Still a chance the prostate will get you before you make 80.
     
  10. Dec 28, 2004 #9
    Armagedon

    Hey, don't give up panicking just yet.

    There are still several million objects in the asteroid belt in the 50-100 feet diameter range, and how many countless billions of comets are there waiting to fall on your heads from the Oort cloud.

    I have read references to perturbed objects being ejected from the solar system, so presumably all of the other solar systems out there are doing the same thing. Has anyboby quantified the risk from one off, extra solar objects.

    This is bad. I think whenever I go out from now on my eyes will be fixed firmly on the heavens, so there is a good chance I'll be walking into lots of trees.
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2004
  11. Dec 28, 2004 #10
    Woohoo, one less rock to worry about! :biggrin:
    And timken, I think compared to a rock from our solar system (comet, asteroid, whatever) the threat of an extrasolar rock is pretty minimal. Think of it this way: the fact that a rock would be ejected from a solar system to careen off for lightyears to eventually go where a solar system is requires a great amount of precision! (Don't forget: most of space is very empty.) The threat from something in our solar system impacting with us is MUCH greater.
     
  12. Dec 28, 2004 #11

    Ivan Seeking

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    I find it ironic that for centuries [millennia?], comets were thought to be bringers of doom. Then, we became enlightened and we knew better. Now we don't. I have wondered if this ancient fear of comets was somehow based on human experience, or if this was simply fear of the unknown.
     
  13. Dec 28, 2004 #12

    Integral

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    OR a Bus, OR a bolt of lighting or any of a dozen other life limiting factors.
     
  14. Dec 28, 2004 #13

    Ivan Seeking

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    Getting in a car and driving is one of life's greatest riskiest activities.
     
  15. Dec 28, 2004 #14

    Ivan Seeking

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    Big Macs are more dangerous than rogue asteroids. :biggrin:
     
  16. Dec 28, 2004 #15
    I'm glad I won't be around should this one strike !
     
  17. Dec 28, 2004 #16

    Integral

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    I recall, back near the end of the cold war, some parents being concerned because. they claimed, their children were being traumatized by the ever present danger of a nuclear war.

    I always wondered how these same parents loaded their children into a car and drove to the neighborhood store.
     
  18. Dec 28, 2004 #17

    russ_watters

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    An aunt and uncle of mine (now divorced) used to drive to the airport together, then get on separate planes to mitigate the probability of both being killed in a plane crash. :uhh:
    I still vote fear of the unknown.
     
  19. Dec 29, 2004 #18

    Ivan Seeking

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    I don't vote. :biggrin:
     
  20. Dec 29, 2004 #19
    According to that diagram, it should approach to within something like 30000-85000 km. Geostationary oribit is like, what, about 40000 km? I think we could land on it quite easily.. Anyone knows if there's anything interesting on it?

    EDIT: closest one so far was at about 43000 km, on 18/03/2004. It was only 30 meters accross (article).
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2004
  21. Dec 29, 2004 #20
    Oh, you guys dont have to worry. Just tell the asteroid i am around.It will spare.
     
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