How Does Global Warming Influence Record-Breaking Temperatures in Philadelphia?

[Andre]

Interesting paper:

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/physics/pdf/0509/0509088.pdf

On the Role of Global Warming on the Statistics of Record-Breaking Temperatures,
S. Redner and Mark R. Petersen,

Abstract

We theoretically study the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using both Monte Carlo simulations and 126 years of available data from the city of Philadelphia. Using extreme statistics, we derive the number and the magnitude of record temperature events, based on the observed Gaussian daily temperature distribution in Philadelphia, as a function of the number of years of observation. We then consider the case of global warming, where the mean temperature systematically increases with time. Over the 126-year time range of observations, we argue that the current warming rate is insufficient to measurably influence the frequency of record temperature events, a conclusion that is supported by numerical simulations and by the Philadelphia data. We also study the role of correlations between temperatures on successive days and find that they do not affect the frequency or magnitude of record temperature events

But then again the world is bigger than Phili

 

[mathias1979]

exactly...you cant' just take one city, see a warming trend, and claim that it holds across the entire planet. I do think global temperatures are rising, but focusing on one city is not the way to prove your point.

 

[ravenprp]

and the heat islands present in cities may affect the record breaking temperature.

Thank you for sharing this interesting paper on the role of global warming on record-breaking temperatures in Philadelphia. It is important to study the statistics of extreme temperature events in order to better understand the impacts of global warming on our climate.

The paper's findings that the current warming rate in Philadelphia is not yet sufficient to significantly influence the frequency of record temperature events is both reassuring and concerning. While it is good to know that the current rate of warming is not yet causing a noticeable increase in extreme temperature events, it is also concerning that this may change as the rate of global warming continues to accelerate.

One potential limitation of the study is that it focuses solely on Philadelphia, and as you mentioned, the world is much bigger than one city. It would be interesting to see how the results compare to other cities and regions, as well as how the presence of heat islands and other urban factors may affect the statistics of record-breaking temperatures.

Overall, this paper highlights the importance of continued research and monitoring of extreme temperature events in the context of global warming. Thank you for sharing this thought-provoking work.