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Hawaii, formerly a lock for Kerry, now a Swing State.

  1. Oct 25, 2004 #1
    Gore won Hawaii by 19%, Clinton won it by 20%. Hawaii is suppose to be 'a lock' for the Democrats. So, what's going on in Hawaii? It's tied. First, it appears that Hawaii hasn't been polled in a while -- at least until these last two polls indicating a dead heat between Bush abnd Kerry for Hawaii's 4 EVs. There are only four polls shown and the first two were done on August 3rd and September 11th respectively. Those early polls showed Kerry with a safe lead. The last two are very recent, October 18th and 20th and show – first, the tie in Hawaii and then the 1 point lead for Bush. If this is valid, I wonder what’s going on to have caused such a huge swing in such a short time. While it's true that 12% are still "undecideds" --- I wonder where those "undecideds" will go. But most importantly, note that 32% of the Democrats in Hawaii say they will vote for Bush. Very strange indeed!

    Link showing the polling organizations, the results, and the dates –


    Below is a related article from the Honolulu Advertiser.

  2. jcsd
  3. Oct 25, 2004 #2


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    Only thing I can think of is the strong military presence sways things in wartime.
  4. Oct 25, 2004 #3
    Hawii and Alaska aren't gonna get too much "swing state" attention, regardless of how close it is. While this doesn't necessarily re-inforce my theory about why Republicans have such a strong hold on Alaska, it doesn't go to disprove it either. My theory being this: It's damned cold in Alaska, and those people want it to get warmer fast. You've got 2 parties back in the mainland, one that says global warming is a problem and must be dealt with immediately (dems), and the other who says they're not sure, and would wait before doing anything drastic (reps). My theory is that Alaskans are sure as hell aware global warming is going on, and if you're in cold-ass alaska, who are you gonna vote for, the party who wants to stop global warming, or the party who won't do a thing to stop it?

    That being said, the Democrats don't have any sort of control over Hawaii's weather, so they don't have the god-like power over its populace like the Republicans do over Hawaii. If only it were Global Cooling that was the problem, Democrats would have Alaska and Hawaii in their pockets easily...
  5. Oct 25, 2004 #4
    No, they would have Hawaii. It's cold enough in Alaska!
  6. Oct 25, 2004 #5
    You misunderstood, I meant if pollution etc. caused the world to cool, and the Democrats wanted to stop it. That way, Alaskans would vote Democrat so as to not freeze their collective balls off anymore than they currently do, and Hawaii would vote Democrat to keep their nice tropical climate and tourism industry going. Who'd want to go to Hawaii if the weather forcast was "Cool and Windy"?
  7. Oct 25, 2004 #6
    Ahh, now your thinking. I say we buy alot of land in Alaska, vote conservative, and when it warms up we make a fortune.
  8. Oct 25, 2004 #7
    Interestingly, on the topic of global warming, there is a new business, privately funded, called the Global Research something or other. They have a machine based on a theory they are testing which can remove CO2 from the air and compress it into the earth (I assume in a solid form of some kind).

    There are 3 employees to the company and they're working with $5 Million in funding. They believe if they can prove its success rate and place these giant fan/collectors globally, they can significantly cut down on greenhouse emissions globally without forcing the reduction of modern industrial techniques that cause global warming.
  9. Oct 25, 2004 #8


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    Holy cow !! :surprised

    You're kidding !!! :eek:
  10. Oct 25, 2004 #9


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