Here comes Hurricane Gustav!

  • News
  • Thread starter jtbell
  • Start date
  • #26
Gokul43201
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
7,082
20
NO should be okay. The flood defences are a lot better now than they were prior to Katrina so should cope with a cat 3 hurricane without too much trouble.
It looks like NO will be spared, but it's a combination of things. The storm has veered westwards over the past few hours, resulting in lower storm surges (current estimates are about 8' to 10'). I think most levees in the NO vicinity are 10' to 15' (or higher?)

The question wasn't whether the levees would hold as much as whether the surge would overflow them.
 
  • #27
Gokul43201
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
7,082
20
What is Brownie doing now, anyway?
If you turn on NBC you'll find out in a couple minutes.
 
  • #28
Astronuc
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
19,956
3,487
At 800 am CDT...1300z...the center of hurricane Gustav was located
near latitude 28.9 north...longitude 90.4 west or about 80 miles...
125 Km...south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana and about 130
miles...210 km...southeast of Lafayette, Louisiana. This position
is also about 20 miles...35 km...southwest of Port Fourchon along
the Louisiana coast.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with some
decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn toward the west-
northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track...the center will
cross the Louisiana coast by midday today.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110
mph...175 km/hr...with higher gusts
. This makes Gustav a Category
2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No significant change
in strength is likely before landfall...with weakening expected to
begin after gustav moves inland later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...from
the center
... and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles...370 km. The National Ocean service station in Shell Beach,
Louisiana recently reported a wind gust of 64 mph...104 km/hr.
The area with hurricane winds missed NO by about 10 miles.

Looks like Grand Isle is getting hammered, and the eye will pass close to Baton Rouge.

NO may get by with this one - but I would expect others to follow. It may be that NO should expect one Cat 3/3+ hurricane about every five years, and Florida and Gulf Coast should expect at least one on average every year.
 
  • #29
Gokul43201
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
7,082
20
Apparently, there is some serious concern about the Jefferson Parish - West Bank area of NO. This is a particularly low lying area, and there could be significant damage done there. Current surge levels at higher ground are at about 5'. Gustav downgraded to Cat 2, but some levees still have a fair to good chance of overflowing. But the immediate damage to people has been avoided by the evacuation. There are currently about 10,000 people staying behind in NO, La. and about 2 million have evacuated the nearby coastal areas.
 
Last edited:
  • #30
Evo
Mentor
23,538
3,173
Looks like Gustav is steadily decreasing in strength. It should only be a Cat 2 by the time it hits land.
 
  • #31
If it does hit New Orleans, this will be the first test of the new levees.

New Orleans really shouldn't exist in it's present state. When being above water depends on the constant pumping out of water to exist, there's something wrong, IMO.


Two thirds of the Netherlands are below sea level and we're just fine. Granted we don't have hurricanes, but we do have surges and storm floods and the North Sea is generally more wild then the gulf. We have been pumping out water since the 1600's what else do you think those funny windmills are for?
People should invest in proper protection against the water and we as people are smart enough to do so. It should be state funded in my opinion.
 
  • #32
18,579
8,475
I'm impressed the levees have held up so far. A video shows a sea of water bashing into what looks like a 1-2ft of concrete wall.
 

Related Threads on Here comes Hurricane Gustav!

  • Last Post
12
Replies
283
Views
22K
  • Last Post
Replies
3
Views
1K
Replies
3
Views
3K
Replies
6
Views
2K
  • Last Post
5
Replies
102
Views
10K
  • Last Post
10
Replies
238
Views
18K
  • Last Post
Replies
6
Views
2K
  • Last Post
Replies
7
Views
837
  • Last Post
Replies
6
Views
2K
  • Last Post
2
Replies
38
Views
6K
Top