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wolram
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How do you get your hunches even if they are out of your circle of expertise, and how often are they right?
It's a matter of being able to work with vague knowledge and have a feel for what's more or less likely, rapidly evaluating hypotheses. At work I've often found others stuck trying to solve a problem because there's no logical way to deduce the cause of a problem from the symptoms, whereas I start with a cloud of vague ideas in my head as to what could have gone wrong and rapidly narrow them down to find ones which could account for the symptoms, until I find a plausible match. In particular, I often focus on areas where people are likely to have made mistakes because of complexity or obscurity, and of course I usually consider a single point of failure more likely than multiple points of failure. I then work from both ends, modifying my guesses and checking for confirmation in the symptoms until I know what's happened.wolram said:How do you get your hunches even if they are out of your circle of expertise, and how often are they right?
New on the schedule, looks as if your going to be correct on this one.Jonathan Scott said:I seem to have an example in progress:
Last month I posted an idea of what might have caused the recent SpaceX anomaly in the SpaceX needs us thread, a subject on which I have no specialist experience. Unlike most posters both on that thread and on the Nasa forums, I thought the initial problem was not the explosion as seen but rather a very sudden failure in the helium pressure system, and that the explosion came a few milliseconds afterwards as a result of the second stage being ruptured, causing ejection of a significant amount of LOX and fuel mixture which could then ignite trivially easily, for example as a result of heat from rupturing materials. I also later mentioned that the failure could have been triggered by thermal stresses during LOX loading.
So far, this hunch has not been confirmed, but as far as I know it is now the main line of inquiry.
I have a model of the way the human brain works. It teaches me how to solve complex problems and how to come up with brilliant solutions. First you have to accept the notion that your subconscious brain is an amazing pattern recognition machine. I have learned how to use this machine. First you formulate a question. Next you gather information related to that question, then you go for a drive. Forget about the problem, let the hind brain cogitate until it spits out an answer for you to examine. I'll give an example.wolram said:How do you get your hunches even if they are out of your circle of expertise, and how often are they right?
Pattern matching against schemas.wolram said:How do you get your hunches even if they are out of your circle of expertise,
CaptainJonathanNorth said:I
I think I have a working definition for "intelligence"
I agree with much of what you said about unconscious computing.CaptainJonathanNorth said:I have a model of the way the human brain works.
A hunch is an intuitive feeling or suspicion about something, without any concrete evidence or reasoning to support it.
Hunches can come from a variety of sources, including personal experiences, observations, and subconscious processing of information. They are often sparked by a feeling or gut instinct.
No, hunches are not always accurate. They are based on limited information and intuition, which can be influenced by biases and emotions. Therefore, they should not be relied upon as the sole basis for important decisions.
Yes, some people may have a natural inclination for hunches, but they can also be developed through practice and honing one's intuition. This can be achieved through self-reflection, paying attention to one's gut feelings, and being open to new ideas and perspectives.
There is no definitive answer to this question as it largely depends on the individual and the situation. Some people may have a higher success rate with hunches, while others may struggle with their accuracy. It is important to evaluate the reliability of hunches on a case-by-case basis.