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Hurricane Season could Renew Global Warming Debate

  1. May 31, 2005 #1

    Ivan Seeking

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    http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/31031/story.htm
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Jun 1, 2005 #2
    Anonther attempt to make everything global. However, as I mentioned in the other thread:

    http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/april2005/

    And what exactly is the story behind this?

    http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/p...olicy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html

    Pure politicalisation (is that equivalent to lying?):

     
  4. Jun 1, 2005 #3
    The 1950's and 60's were big hurricane decades too. The 70's and 80's actually mellowed out a bit. But 1995 saw the start of more hurricane's again. It has more to do with El'Nino's or should I say lack of them, and water temps then anything else. Its a cycle they can trace back over 100 years.
    I've seen no where on my weather sites{government, U of M,and state} that blame it on Global warming.
     
  5. Jun 3, 2005 #4
    Has anyone seen a pattern in periods of increased (or decreased if you like) hurrican occurance/ severity?

    If a pattern can be found /has been found, it would surely clear thing up a bit.
    Number of Atlantic Hurricanes per Hurricane Season

    Perhaps someone can make use of this?
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2005
  6. Jun 4, 2005 #5
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2005
  7. Jun 7, 2005 #6
    This is what puzzles me about the predictions of great hurricane activity this summer. We are just coming off a mild El'Nino event this Winter (remember the rains in California and Arizona this Winter?), so what do the "experts" base their predictions upon?

    KM
     
  8. Jun 7, 2005 #7
    Last years El'Nino season is over with. The new season shows that the warm temperature of Atlantic Ocean waters and the absence of El Nino development in 2005, is going to lead to a bad year.
    I think that the Atlantic is so warm this year that even a strong late blooming El'Nino, would not be enough to slow the chain of events down.
    Many climate conditions are used in forcasting, including warm sea temperatures, low wind shear, sea surface pressure, trade winds and African jet streams.
     
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2005
  9. Jun 8, 2005 #8
  10. Jun 8, 2005 #9
    According to everything that I have gotten from NWS to date, the last El'Nino was this year (apparently just ending), not last year. There was one, if I recall correctly, also in 2002 or 2003 (stronger than this year's). It's rare that they occur as close together as 2 years, but that can happen apparently (2 to 7 year intervals). I'd like to hope, however that things won't be as dire as some seem to be predicting (I hope they aren't wishing for it). It just seems that the latest El'Nino may possibly be an extenuating circumstance. I hope it will be.

    KM
     
  11. Jul 8, 2005 #10
    current cat 4 storm is the earlyest ever extream storm
    also 4th named storm at earlyest ever date

    hurricanes are heat engines so a warmer globe will have both more storms
    and more extream storms

    kinda eazy to see that
     
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