I predict Bush Will....
Lose the election!!!
Are you going to expand on this?
I as hoping to generate discussion by keeping it open ended.
Give me your reasons on why you think he will lose, and I'd be happy to respond
He could lose, he could win, and it all depends on how the media coverage goes. If he gets a free pass like he did against Gore, he'll have an easier time winning.
Bush will win -
Kerry is peaking too early.
He's laid everything on the table, and is giving 8 months for people to find where he is contradicting himself, or lying.
Here's an example:
"We do not need to divide America over who served and how."
Yet, today Kerry questioned Bush on his military service.
I predict that this sort of show is goign to continute on, eroding him. This is all very reminiscent of Dukakis and Bush. Kerry even admits it, al beit Kerry says he won't make the same mistakes.
He is already makign the same mistakes. He has people in his own party labeling him "a republican", he's peaking earlier, and by november he will be burnt out in many people's minds.
The only saving grace for Kerry is if Bush has really touched enough buttons that people will vote for Kerry just to get rid of Bush. Unfortunately for Kerry though, I do feel that to win that vote he'll alienate the rest of the democrats that would support him. He's already alienated the south by proposing he doesn't need us to win
I'm calling a Bush victory in November.
The amount of 'anyone but Bush' sentiment is ... disturbing. Bush has strongly polarized the US voters, and even people that would normally vote 3rd party are telling me that they're looking for the credentials "not Bush" in the coming election.
The Democrats are already circling the wagons, and whomever wins the nomination would be idiotic not to go after Bush on traditionally Republican issues that Bush is lousy in - like fiscal responsibility and civil liberties - and the economy.
He alienated the South by being from Massachussets. He might as well not lose votes elswhere by pandering to the archaic attitudes so common to the South. The conservatives of rural Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan are the only ones Kerry needs (just a few at that), and they don't appreciate being lumped in with southerners. Florida, of course is different.
Kerry needs none of the "Southern Strategy" states, nor can he win any. Kerry only needs to take the states Gore took, and flip Florida or Ohio - both are quite possible.
So can someone give me a quick run down of the voting events? Right now it is about the candidacy, when will the actual big voting day be?
Early November of 2004 is the general election.
The Republicans have their candidate - Bush.
Democrats are picking theirs. Each state has an election or caucus to assign delegates to a candidate. These are primaries. They are spread out for about 3 months. It is likely that the nominee will be determined to be John Kerry as early as February 17th. If Kerry is found to have engaged in cannibalism, or worse, received oral pleasure from an intern, the trend in the later primaries could change.
In the summer, each party has their convention. They officially pick their candidate, adopt their platform, and pick vice-presidential candidates. Then we get the onslaught of negative poitical ads and insipid debates moderated by reporters even more clueless than the average voter, after which pundits tell us what the candidates just said, even though it doesn't seem to match what we just heard them say. With this excellent preparation, a good 50% of registered voters - about 35% of the population - will go to the polls to decide who will be president.
I'm not so sure that's not normal. When Clinton was in office, I had an 'anyone but Clinton' point of view. Every incumbent has their share of it.
Current statistics show that if there was an election TODAY, Kerry would end up with 43% of the vote, and bush with 47% 3% margin of error. However, if Kerry gets Edwards on his ticket as vice president(which is a serious possibility), he gains the entire south, because people from the south only vote for people with a southern accent. Truth!
I noticed an intersting poll analysis this morning. Bush's popularity has fallen under 50%. But that's not the interesting part; it fell 10 points in just a few days, and that happeneed to be the few days when Kay's report that ther weren't any WMD was big news.
All through the Fall of 2003, pundits marveled that the US public still believed that Saddam had a direct connection to 9/11. Finally, it appears, they have accepted and internalized the insight that all that was just a story. Once the aura of wartime leader is lost to Bush, he can never get it back. When they think about it, they are going to come to see him as a faker. The general reaction to his interview with Russert last nigh is another straw in the wind.
Bush peaked two and a half years ago. And he's been falling since.
Great, someone who thinks all intelligent life lives on either coast
Yes, but let's remember Dukakis and Bush....Dukakis led Bush all the way until Deep into election season.....
The more I read, the more eerie the similarities get! Dukakis and Kerry follow most of the same issues, they are goign against a Bush who is strong in a war time environment, and Dukakis was even from the same state! Couple that with Kerry peaking so early in order to win the Democrat bid and we've got a good ol' fashion repeat of history
When I say peaked, I'm not talking about poll numbers.
I'm talking about getting issues out. Kerry has to lay everything out to get the nomination - He's leaving little left to challenge Bush with except 8 months of repeating the same thing while others have 8 months to sift through his statements.
9 months is a long time for kerry to screw up/wear out, but it is also a long time for bush to remain popular. The trend for bush's popularity can be described in one word, declining.
Also, anyone here that Ralph Nader might join in the race? Nader cost Gore the election last time in florida by taking 90,000 votes(majorally gore vote) and he might jsut do the same thign to kerry this time!
Well my sample is obviously skewed, but the people who I hear this from did not have the same attitude about Bush the elder or Reagan. This is the first time (since '72) that people in my family are actively going out and encouraging others to vote. Maybe I'm just more involved this year, but I expect that the Democratic electorate is going to be much more mobilized than it has been in the last few elections.
There is certainly some anti-incumbent sentiment, but the country is much more polarized than it has been in my memory.
Being 18 sucks in some respects, I have no idea if all current hype around election year is normal or not... Up until a few months ago i didnt even realize that candidates get that energetic! geez, they sure can move for old guys!
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