Iraqi unrest, Syrian unrest, and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh

[nsaspook]

The 'ceasefire' is over.

Syrian and Russian warplanes have reportedly mounted the heaviest air strikes in months against rebel-held districts of the city of Aleppo overnight, defying U.S. calls for a halt to flights in order to salvage an all but buried ceasefire. Mana Rabiee reports.

 

[nsaspook]

This might be the end game in Aleppo.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ack-foreign-syrian-fighters-plan-shia-islamic

 

[Astronuc]

The 'ceasefire' is over.

A ceasefire that never was. 'Cease fire' means ceasing fire, not a reduction in rate of firing.

A now the Russians (and perhaps Assad's pilots) are apparently using 'bunker busters' or more deeply penetrating bombs to go after residents sheltering in basements. The Syrian regime (and possibly Russian aircraft) have targeted hospitals and ambulances.

 

[nsaspook]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/01/politics/kerry-audio-recording-syria/index.html

He later added, "A lot of Americans don't believe that we should be fighting and sending young Americans over to die in another country."

If the reason is to replace Assad with another despot then I totally agree.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37507207

But Russia's military role ensured that the Assad leadership was not going to be removed from the chessboard.

This made Washington revise its own approach and pursue what has largely proved an illusory effort, to develop some kind of partnership with Russia.

The United States was compelled not just to deal with Russia as a diplomatic equal but also to shift its own stance towards the Assad government to one - that for all the obfuscation - falls well short of its long-time insistence that President Assad had to go, as the essential pre-condition for any negotiated settlement.

The indiscriminate nature of the Russian and Syrian air campaigns - exemplified by the current struggle over Aleppo - has certainly not won Russia many friends in the West.

Russia has been accused by several governments of barbarity and potentially committing war crimes.

According to the UK-based monitoring group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, almost 4,000 civilians have been killed in one year of Russian strikes.

But Western public opinion seems largely unmoved by the struggle; perhaps to an extent a reflection of war weariness in the wake of the campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq.

 

[jim hardy]

If the reason is to replace Assad with another despot then I totally agree.

well said.

from your link http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/01/politics/kerry-audio-recording-syria/index.html

"They were invited in, we were not," he added, referring to Moscow's military operations in Syria.

 

[mheslep]

Some media outlets have been recently noting a history written by former Kennedy School professor Samantha Power. Power won recognition with her 2001 article, Bystanders to Genocide, published in the Atlantic regarding the 1994 genocide in Rwanda which killed an estimated 800,000 people in three months. Power's article cites the relevant history of the Clinton administration and Kofi Annan's UN at the time, and describes a damning story of willful avoidance in the US diplomatic community, the US military, and the White House. Power developed the history into a book which won the Pulitzer prize. The recognition won Power a position in the 2008 Obama campaign.

Power resigned from the Obama campaign after calling the then Senator Clinton a "monster". Now of course Power is United States Ambassador to the United Nations, and there is another mass slaughter underway. The UN as of Feb 2016 estimated 470,000 dead in Syria from the war there, and since then has stopped providing public estimates.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Russia has clearly committed to Assad. Exactly what end games are we looking at? Either we go to war against Russia or we abandon Syria. It's fairly clear we will abandon Syria because it's less risky than engaging Russia. The strategy of proxy war is lost unless the rebels suddenly get anti air units. Is there another way?

 

[jim hardy]

abandon Syria

abandon ?

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

abandon ?

Still not sure what your question is. Nothing seems to work as long as Russia is actively supporting Assad.

 

[mheslep]

... It's fairly clear we will abandon Syria because it's less risky than engaging Russia. ...

Plenty of other ways to apply pressure on Russia. But why single out Syria to be abandoned? A real line as to where Russia can't go should be established. Does this apply to Ukraine, eastern Europe? Russia goes into Iraq, or proxies into Israel? Russia attacks a US Navy vessel in the Black Sea?

It's also important to think back about what early intervention could have done in Syria. The US/NATO could have destroyed all of Assad's air power at the beginning of the civil war, air power with which he bombed civilians, well before the Russians were involved. Maintaining a US force in neighboring IRAQ with air assets would have helped. The excuse of no Status of Forces Agreement is now clearly seen as nonsense with 5K troops back in Iraq.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Plenty of other ways to apply pressure on Russia. But why single out Syria to be abandoned? A real line as to where Russia can't go should be established.

Because this thread is about Syria :) Russia won't leave Syria. Assad is unlikely to lose as long as Russia is there.

 

[russ_watters]

Still not sure what your question is.

Based on what I implied in my first Syria threads 3 and 5 years ago, I'm going to guess he means that in order to abandon someone you first have to have some sort of control or influence that you can then give up.

I'm not sure the characterization is completely accurate, since we of course did assert some level of influence...we just knew for years that it was only enough to prolong the war, not to help get the outcome we were looking for.

 

[mheslep]

Because this thread is about Syria :) Russia won't leave Syria. Assad is unlikely to lose as long as Russia is there.

Yes. I was addressing the open ended part your comment that engagement of Russia is too risky for the US. Surely this assertion is not meant to be universal and has limits, somewhere before the Russia flag is flown over the US Capital due to risk avoidance.

If there are to be declarations about what is too risky for the US abroad, I think it's also a good idea to declare what the US will defend despite risk, else others will endeavor to make the decision for us.

 

[jim hardy]

Still not sure what your question is. Nothing seems to work as long as Russia is actively supporting Assad.

Abandon i first took as negative, throw them to the sharks.
Then it dawned on me there's more than one sense to the verb and i wasn't sure what was your intended meaning . So i looked it up and that's Webster's #3
Having watched Assad interviewed twice on TV I'm of the opinion 1a is a healthy choice. "Arming moderate rebels" was throwing Syria to the sharks.

I've said it before , we should be helping Putin help Assad kick Isis's butt out of his country.

 

[Bystander]

1a is a healthyworkable? choice.

I've said it before , we should be helping Putin help Assad kick Isis's butt out of his country.

... , or, having "abandoned" all interests in Syria as of 2010, at the least, stop the "show" of PC interference.

 

[jim hardy]

at the least, stop the "show" of PC interference.

The righteous indignation over hacked emails while we overthrow governments all over mideast seems to me incongruous..

 

[Vanadium 50]

while we overthrow governments all over mideast

Examples please? You have the 2003 Iraq war, thirteen years ago. Anything else?

 

[Bystander]

Anything else?

Egypt? Libya? (that's stretching the geographic definition, yes ... but, the spirit of "the Arab spring" is maintained)

 

[mheslep]

The question was about who or what "overthrow" governments "all over" the ME.. How many US divisions invaded Egypt and Libya?

There are now half a million dead in the Syrian civil war. Can the hand waiving nonsense proceed to the sidelines?

 

[jim hardy]

Examples please? You have the 2003 Iraq war, thirteen years ago. Anything else?

Egypt, Libyia, Ukraine, attempts in Syria and Turkey just since i recently started paying attention .

 

[HossamCFD]

Egypt? Libya?

Egypt, Libyia, Ukraine,

In what way did the US overthrow Mubarak's government? I've been hearing this argument a lot as of late and it always puzzles me. I remember the 18 days of the revolution as if they were yesterday. The US was pretty much the last player to give up on Mubarak, when it was almost irrelevant at that point.

I agree with Vanadium regarding this point. Any claim of US-overthrew-the-government post Iraq 2003 is IMO a stretch.

It's also important to think back about what early intervention could have done in Syria. The US/NATO could have destroyed all of Assad's air power at the beginning of the civil war, air power with which he bombed civilians, well before the Russians were involved.

Well said!

I've been repeating that since 2012 to the point that I feel like a broken record.

I get that most Americans now see Iraq was a disaster (I agree) and it appears there's currently a strong anti-intervention sentiment. But if Iraq's lesson was that well learned, I hope that after almost half a million dead in Syria there's another lesson to be learned; namely that non-intervention can also come at a great human cost.

 

[mheslep]

...hope that after almost half a million dead in Syria there's another lesson to be learned; namely that non-intervention can also come at a great human cost.

Difficult to learn when there is so much distortion of the history. Instead of confronting the consequences of non intervention, much effort goes into blaming the US for all that troubles the world, into inventing interventions that never occurred. Or wrenching priorities loose from all foundation. Look at a US candidate for President who does not know or much care what Aleppo is or where. Look at another who is most concerned about "implicit bias" in everyone and the slightest harm from climate change.

 

[Astronuc]

Isis Leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi Reportedly Poisoned
https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/3143f21a-ea15-3e64-b20c-30230a2cad2b/ss_isis-leader-abu-bakr.html

ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is at death’s door after being poisoned by a mystery assassin in Iraq, it has been reported. Three other senior jihadis were also afflicted by the toxin in Al-Ba’aj, southwest of Mosul – Islamic State’s biggest city in Iraq. The four have reportedly been rushed for treatment at a secret location. FARS, an Iranian news agency, say that ISIS is now arresting several suspects to find out who has struck a blow at the terror group’s self-proclaimed ‘Caliph’.

If anyone ever deserved it, he does.

 

[jim hardy]

In what way did the US overthrow Mubarak's government? I've been hearing this argument a lot as of late and it always puzzles me. I remember the 18 days of the revolution as if they were yesterday. The US was pretty much the last player to give up on Mubarak, when it was almost irrelevant at that point.

If you were there you have it first hand . Do you know Wael Ghonim ?

My take on events from six thousand miles away is we roused up an excitable segment of the population. That's what State Department's Alliance of Youth Movements does.

I'd like to hear your observations.

 

[HossamCFD]

Do you know Wael Ghonim ?

Every Egyptian knows Wael Ghoneim. I've never met him in person but we had a few online exchanges and he follows me on Quora (which I only joined after it acquired Parlio, a political and social network founded by Wael).

My take on events from six thousand miles away is we roused up an excitable segment of the population.

I'm very familiar with this narrative. But if I'm being perfectly honest, this does strike as slightly self-centric. Many people fought for this over many years, and hundreds paid the ultimate price in result. We obviously failed, but it is the youths of Egypt who deserve the credit for this failed revolution, rather than blame it on the US.

I'd like to hear your observations.

Thank you for the interest. I feel like I can only present how organic the uprising was, as opposed to being orchestrated/incited by the US, through a narration of how the events unfolded. But there is no way I can narrate this episode in a concise way. I'll do my best, but I'll understand if the moderators chose to remove this as off-topic.

Political dissent began to surface with the Kefaya (Egyptian Arabic for "enough") movement, which began in 2005 as a reaction to the perceived attempts of preparing Mubarak's son Gamal to succeed him. They organised protests and I remember being absolutely astonished that they had the courage to explicitly and publicly speak against Mubarak (rather than criticize the cabinet, which was somehow normal). Protests normally consisted of about 200 activists chanting on the stairs of some public building surrounded by more than a thousand policemen, and before too long half of them would be 'welcomed' in jail. This routine changed on April 6th 2008 when a group of activists (some of them were from Kefaya) transformed a planned workers strike in El-Mahala to a national event with the help of the now-widespread social media. Millions of people saw the video of protesters stepping on a massive portrait of Mubarak. This was the start of the April 6 Youth Movement which has been very influential ever since. With the help of Facebook, dissent became commonplace and for the first time you could see normal people speaking out against Mubarak on your way to work.

El-Baradei came back to Egypt around 2010 and started a campaign for democratic reform. He was a high enough profile (as well as the Nobel peace prize, he was awarded the Order of the Nile, Egypt's highest state honour) that he was safe from persecution from the government. He became the umbrella under which all opposition gathered (including Kefaya and April 6).

In the same year, a young man called Khaled Saeed was beaten to death in a police station in Alexandria. A photo of his corpse went viral and it almost immediately became a symbol of the regime's oppression. Massive silent protests were organised (I went to one of them in Alexandria and it stretched for a few kilometres). Wael Ghoneim was the (then anonymous) founder of a Facebook page called "We are all Khaled Saeed" which had millions of followers and had a phenomenal levels of participation.

And then Tunisia happened...

Egyptians were following closely as Ben Ali fled Tunisia on the 14th of January 2011. Online groups suggested to plan protests only 11 days later on the 25th (as a spit in the face of the regime since the 25th of January is Egypt's national police day) instead of the usual April 6th. The idea got a lot of support and thousands of people took to the streets in Alexandria were I lived. I went home and turned on the TV and saw reports of similar protests in Suez and Cairo. Around 30.000 protesters occupied Tahrir square in Cairo and were then dispersed violently later.

Washington's reaction came that night when Secretary Clinton issued a statement saying the administration sees no reason to believe that the Egyptian government is unstable (I still remember more or less the exact words).

The Egyptian government shut down the internet and all cell phone communications in the hope that people won't be able organise themselves. This backfired badly. On Friday the 28th the thousands became millions in the streets. Hundreds were shot dead but the police quickly ran out of ammunition and disappeared from the streets. The protests became a full scale revolution and instead of political reform, people were demanding the immediate toppling of Mubarak. The army descended to the streets to protect public buildings as the police department evaporated, but did not clash with the protesters.

Many young people, including myself, were frustrated by the vague and overly cautious US stance. This was rectified on February 1st when Obama issued a statement saying that only the Egyptian people can determine their leaders. The clashes on the streets would continue until February 11 when Mubarak finally resigned.

These are the events as I lived them. I don't see how America would've "roused up" the rebellion. Yes, the US could've stood up for Mubarak a bit longer and made it more difficult for us (which would've costed many more lives), but I don't think the administration should be blamed for not doing so. It was clear for any keen observer that Mubarak is on the way out, and it was just a question of how many more lives will be spent.

 

[jim hardy]

We obviously failed, but it is the youths of Egypt who deserve the credit for this failed revolution, rather than blame it on the US.

I thank you for taking the time to relate the view from up close.
If we both get banned i owe you one... Mentors please take it out on me , i asked the question.

I'm very familiar with this narrative. But if I'm being perfectly honest, this does strike as slightly self-centric.

We flatter ourselves ? That could be.

I'm reading up on those links you included.

April 6 Youth Movement was founded by one Srdja Popovic
who's made the rounds in US university circles
.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Srđa_Popović_(activist)

Waging Nonviolence
In 2009, Popovic became a founding member of the board of advisers of Waging Nonviolence, "a source for original news and analysis about struggles for justice and peace around the globe." [20][21] Popovic was removed from the board in the wake of the Stratfor controversy (see below).[22]

Teaching
In addition to activism, Popovic also runs educational workshops and lectures at a variety of forums and universities. Additionally, he has taught courses on nonviolence tactics and political struggle at Grinnell College, Harvard University,[23] Colorado College, New York University, Johns Hopkins University, Columbia University, Northeastern University, Rutgers University, and Belgrade University. Popovic and the Centre for Applied Nonviolent Actions and Strategies have partnered with Northeastern University's Co-Op program, hosting interns and running them through nonviolence workshops.

Understand from my perspective
that in the US we have a huge fringe element blaming CIA for everything from sunspots to canker sores .and they're all over internet & cable TV.
I try to cross check the less radical ones' observations on some foreign affairs, ( one of which was the famous leaked Victoria Nuland phonecall discussing whom to put in charge of Ukraine government, ( transcript here er, mentors , surely BBC qualifies as a source ? )
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
and make my own conclusions so as to not get pulled into the "conspiracy theory" lunatic fringe.

Popovic gave an interesting interview to "The Guardian" here
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/08/srdja-popovic-revolution-serbian-activist-protest

When a country is attacked from the outside, everyone rallies around its leadership – even a really bad leadership. Foreign military interventions don’t bring change.”

Nor, Popovic argues, do many sanctions. “The targeted ones, on Milosevic’s inner circle, were great. But the oil embargo just made the mafia richer, and the trade embargo plunged us into hyper-inflation; my parents were selling smuggled petrol in the streets to survive.”

Imposing this kind of thing on a society from outside, Popovic is now convinced, “gives the government every excuse to do whatever it wants to do. That’s number one. Number two, it makes every single person who you’re going to be relying on for durable change really struggle for their life. They are all going to be too busy just surviving to mobilise.”
From such experiences, Otpor! reached its conclusion that internal resistance, not external intervention, is the best driver for political change.

.....
And Syria … Well, Syria’s opposition, Popovic says, “figured that if only they took up arms, the cavalry would come riding over the hill, just like it did in Libya. Except it didn’t.

Great observation, thanks for introducing me to his outfit.

I'll keep on reading.

Thank you again.

old jim

 

[mheslep]

...Victoria Nuland phonecall discussing whom to put in charge of Ukraine government,

This *phone call* by a US diplomat, referencing other *phone calls* is what you mean when you said earlier that the US is overthrowing countries all over, in the case of Ukraine? C'mon.

The United States btw has a 1994 security agreement with Ukraine, made in order for Ukraine to let go of its large nuclear arsenal after the collapse of the USSR. That agreement made the world safer for all. Given the obligations in that agreement, any US diplomat on the eastern European desk better have a good idea of who the US likes for leadership in the Ukraine and who is a lunatic gangster.

 

[HossamCFD]

Understand from my perspective
that in the US we have a huge fringe element blaming CIA for everything from sunspots to canker sores .and they're all over internet & cable TV.

I completely understand that. You might be surprised at how widespread this phenomenon is. There are similar groups in Egypt blaming the CIA for many (and often contradictory) things.

There's a large group of people who blame the 2011 uprising on the US. These normally come from my parents generation who are very likely to hate both the revolution and the US. They're all over the state run media. They can find whatever ammunition they want to support their conspiracy, for instance, Wael Ghoneim has an American wife and he lives in California at the moment.

There's a smaller group who blame the rise of the Muslim brotherhood to power in 2012 on the US. After all, Morsi did live, study, and teach in the US. I remember seeing on the tele a member of the constitutional court proclaiming that Obama is a secret Muslim Brotherhood agent (I think the allegation isn't original, she probably stole the idea from some online American conspiracy enthusiast).

And then there's of course the Muslim Brotherhood supporters who believe the 2013 coup was orchestrated by the US (and the Coptic Church, and any other group they don't like). Again El Sisi did study in a US Army War College in Pennsylvania.

 

[Astronuc]

ISIS Call for Stabbing Sprees a Nightmare Scenario for Stopping Terror Plots - seems to target Russia.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/cdb0f50c-00e9-3144-a6b0-df5c541b22d7/ss_isis-call-for-stabbing-sprees.html

A Sunni fighter holds a document giving details on ISIS’s campaign against Russia the day after they recaptured the northern town from the Islamic State group on September 23, 2016. The same day vice presidential candidates met to clash over who had the best plan to stop terrorism, the Islamic State was telling would-be jihadists that they didn’t need a lot of planning to wage homespun attacks -

 

[jim hardy]

I completely understand that. You might be surprised at how widespread this phenomenon is. There are similar groups in Egypt blaming the CIA for many (and often contradictory) things.

ISIS Call for Stabbing Sprees a Nightmare Scenario for Stopping Terror Plots - seems to target Russia.

former CIA director Mike Morell in August this year

 

[mheslep]

former CIA director Mike Morell in August this year

Jim - the parallel was for US soldiers in Iraq attacked via Iranian proxies. ISIS is threatening terror attacks on random civilian targets in Russia, not on Russian soldiers and pilots *in Syria*. The US does not target civilians.

 

[HossamCFD]

former CIA director Mike Morell in August this year

I'm not sure I get this. It seems to me that you're insinuating that the US has some, well, understanding with ISIS regarding this, or that ISIS is doing the US bidding when they call for attacking Russian civilians.

Please correct me if that's not what you meant.

It's very clear that ISIS doesn't need any extra motivation to attack either Russia or Iran. In fact, almost exactly a year ago ISIS was responsible for downing a Russian jet in Sinai en route to St. Petersburg from Sharm El-Sheikh. Also, ISIS seems to have a functional recruitment base in Russia. Russian jihadists top the list of all non-Arab foreign fighters in ISIS, third only to Tunisia and Saudi Arabia.

Also, as mheslep pointed out, there are no grounds for the suggestion that the US would target Russian civilians.

 

[jim hardy]

I'm not sure I get this. It seems to me that you're insinuating that the US has some, well, understanding with ISIS regarding this, or that ISIS is doing the US bidding when they call for attacking Russian civilians.

no, i don't think we're in cahoots with Isis anymore (there was a good Frontline on how they developed)
just that we've still got people advocating forcible regime change and "poke the bear" .

 

[Astronuc]

I'm not sure I get this. It seems to me that you're insinuating that the US has some, well, understanding with ISIS regarding this, or that ISIS is doing the US bidding when they call for attacking Russian civilians.

I'm sure Jim was not suggesting that, but supporting anti-Assad forces and either defeating Assad or having them reach a political solution (not sure what that would be) would be costly to Russia in terms of reducing their influence. The US is of course, fighting against Daesh. However, the US is supporting some groups to whom Russia is hostile. There are a spectrum of Sunni or Syrian opposition groups against Assad, some affiliated with al-Qaeda, who both US and Russia oppose, and some that the US supports and Russia opposes, and then there is Assad who Russia supports and US opposes. What a quagmire we're bogged in.

 

[mheslep]

still got people advocating forcible regime change ...

Morell specifically did *not* advocate regime change via force. He mentioned several uses of force to make Assad, Putin, and the Iranians pay a price for continuing to slaughter people in Syrian, for bombing UN supply convoys.