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When I went to class yesterday there was a problem on the board and it said..

"If you were to pick an answer to this problem what is the probability you would get it correct?

1. 25%

2.50%

3.0%

4.25%

My answer

This question seems flawed because how could someone possibly choose an answer if they don't know how many possible incorrect "things" they could choose. And it is impossible to have a 25% chance, a 0% chance and a 50 % chance at the same time because if you knew the ratio of what the "correct" answer is out of all the possible answers you would know that you either have a 0% 44%..100% or what ever it might be. But with out knowing this fact it seems impossible to know.

This is what I have decided... because the problem is giving me 4 possible answers I am going to read into this and assume the problem is actually saying that I have 4 bags labeled 1. 2. 3. and 4. which have a probabiliy of picking the correct answer of 25%, 50%, 0% AND 25% respectfully. I will also assume in each bag there are four marbles, one marble is red and in order to be "correct one must pick the red marble.

first bad there is one red marble

second bad there are two red marbles

third bag there are no red marbles

fourth bad there is 1 red marble

Next inorder for this to be accurate I would have to put all the marbles from bags 1,2,3,4 into one bag...thus there is a total of 16 marbles in which there is 4 red marbles which gives me a 25 percent change of chosing the red marble... the correct answer.

Is this correct?

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# Homework Help: Is this a trick question?

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