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News Its Over

  1. Nov 3, 2004 #1
    18 years old, emotionally fragile, and Kerry lost... Should I go jump off a bridge now?
  2. jcsd
  3. Nov 3, 2004 #2
    Is it confirmed? Human folly, never cease to amaze.
  4. Nov 3, 2004 #3
    Nader wasn't even mentioned I'm very, very hurt :(

    *observes a moment of silence*
  5. Nov 3, 2004 #4
    Post a link please. I've been checking Yahoo! News, and there is nothing about Bush winning yet. All I know is that Kerry is a little behind.
  6. Nov 3, 2004 #5


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    Bush has a decent lead in Ohio with 20 electoral votes, and he's also slated to win New Mexico with 5. That'll put him over the top.
  7. Nov 3, 2004 #6
    Here's the deal. Ohio should not be called for bush until provisional ballots are counted. As it stands, Kerry is about 125,000 votes behind Bush. It is estimated that there are anywhere between 150,000 to 200,000 provisional ballots out there.

    "Broken machines and a delay in opening absentee ballots will delay Iowa reporting its final count in the presidential election, state election officials said." - CNN.com

    And New Mexico is also being slow with absentee ballots.

    All in all, it ain't over till it's over.
  8. Nov 3, 2004 #7


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    Here's the proof for those few disbelievers.

    Bush has 249 EVs (not counting Ohio), and he needs 270 to win.

    In Ohio : Bush's lead = 126,000 votes. No. of votes to be counted = about 200,000.
    For Kerry to win Ohio, he must make about 165,000 (or 83%) of these remaining votes (assuming they all count - typically, about 80% to 90% of provisional votes are accepted). The odds of this happening are virtually nil. And if more than 17% of the provisional ballot is rejected, the odds go to zero.

    With Ohio, Bush has 20 EVs more giving him a total of 269. He needs 1 more to win.

    In New Mexico, Bush has a lead of about 30,000 votes, and there are only about 30,000 votes left to count, so those 5 EVs are going to Bush too.

    This gives Bush 274 EVs - making him the winner.

  9. Nov 3, 2004 #8
    Actually President Bush needs only 269 EC votes to win since he would undoubtedly win in a House election.

    Things are really looking good, more seats in the House, more seats in the Senate not to mention a 2% lead in the popular vote.
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