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Kerry's X Factor?

  1. Oct 21, 2004 #1

    Ivan Seeking

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    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/ap/20041019/ap_on_el_pr/winning_the_new_voters

    -- KGW (NBC, Portland, Or.) Morning News 10/21/04

    -- Tim Russert; NBC Nightly News, 10/21/04

    Could we see a November surprise?
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Oct 21, 2004 #2
    What, of Kerry winning? I'd be MORE suprised if Bush won. :approve:
     
  4. Oct 21, 2004 #3

    Ivan Seeking

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    I mean a much more decisive victory for Kerry than the polls would indicate. It seems that there may be a lot of new voters flying under the RADAR. I know of a few people who rarely or never vote, but who already did this year due to their anger with Bush.

    Note that in Oregon, the voting (by mail) has already started.
     
  5. Oct 21, 2004 #4
    Ah. Yes, I too believe Kerry's gonna kick ass. :D
    Seriously, I think we may see an eligable voter turn out near 60% with a LOT more young people voting this time around...much more even than in '92.
     
  6. Oct 21, 2004 #5

    selfAdjoint

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    A couple of the poll analysis sites (Democratic ones, to be sure) are calling it 318 electoral votes for Kerry. One of them has just started allocating undecided voters, using a 2:1 ratio for Kerry:Bush.

    Bush has two negatives dragging on him: Gas prices and the flu vaccine farrago, which the public seems inclined to blame on him (not just, I know, but when was the public ever just?)
     
  7. Oct 21, 2004 #6

    Gokul43201

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    Wow ! You guys are a whole bunch more optimistic than I am.

    If Kerry loses Florida, it's all over. I think he'll get Penn but Ohio looks like it's going to Bush.
     
  8. Oct 21, 2004 #7

    Ivan Seeking

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  9. Oct 21, 2004 #8
    Here's a fun little site where you get to see what the totals would be if whoever wins whichever states. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html
    A situation which isn't hard to believe at all might actually cause an election of the president by the House of Representatives. If Bush wins all the states he did in 2000, except New Hamshire and Nevada, and Kerry gets all the rest, it will be 269 to 269.

    Though there are ample ways for Kerry to win while still losing Ohio and Florida.

    For instance, if Kerry could just pick up Texas, talk about a fuking surprise win!
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2004
  10. Oct 21, 2004 #9

    Gokul43201

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    Doesn't that agree with what I'm saying ?

    In fact, if you look at the Florida polls (in that site), most of them project Bush will win the state.
     
  11. Oct 21, 2004 #10

    Math Is Hard

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    but how on earth could THAT happen?
     
  12. Oct 22, 2004 #11

    Tsu

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    Let's PRAY that it DOES happen!! After all, Bush's hometown newspaper won't even support him!! Guess they know him too well... :rofl:
     
  13. Oct 22, 2004 #12
    For what its worth, the polls indicate a lead for Bush.. unfortunately.
     
  14. Oct 22, 2004 #13
    Bush will win with greater than 300 electoral votes. He won't even need Florida, but he'll win that, too.

    Fear 1 Hope 0.
     
  15. Oct 22, 2004 #14
    Yah, looking at the electoral college, kerry has no chance... or at least little chance. I'm afraid that for every democrat flying under the radar, there's a republican doing that as well.
     
  16. Oct 22, 2004 #15

    Tsu

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    Don't underestimate the effects of a strong Grassroots movement. Many former apethetics are coming out of the woodwork to register and vote to get Bush out of office.
     
  17. Oct 22, 2004 #16

    kat

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    http://www.tradesports.com/

    futures contract that predicts Bush to gain 300+ electoral votes has surged ahead....and I do mean suurrgggeeddd. People are putting their money where they think the votes are..
     
  18. Oct 22, 2004 #17

    Ivan Seeking

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    Obviously many interpretations are possible but here are their predicted results [as of today]: Kerry 294 Bush 244

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2004
  19. Oct 22, 2004 #18

    Gokul43201

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    On the other hand Kerry stock is surging upwards in the IET and is closing in on Bush.
     
  20. Oct 22, 2004 #19

    Gokul43201

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    That looks deceptively optimistic. Florida going to Bush turns the whole thing around.

    In fact, if you click on Florida, in their electoral map, it lists all the various polls on Florida. Their own poll is among a small minority that gives Florida to Kerry.

    However, even if Bush wins Florida, Kerry can make it if he wins Wisconsin.
     
  21. Oct 22, 2004 #20

    Ivan Seeking

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    It assumes that new voters swing to Kerry by 2:1. This appears to be consistent with other reports surfacing ala Russert.

    optimistic? I can't think of a better time. Get out the vote. The new voters could win this for Kerry.
     
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