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Kurt.physics and I are the uncontested forecast poll winners this month. :-)

  1. Oct 29, 2007 #1


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    We both guessed that as of 1 November Smolin's book would be selling 3 times better than the five most popular stringy books' average.
    And we now look almost certain to win, simply because we have no rivals!

    That's a new one for me. I've never won one of these forecasting competitions.

    1 October 6.5
    9 October 4.7
    10 October 4.2
    11 October 7.4
    13 October 6.4
    14 October 4.7
    15 October 7.1
    16 October 4.4
    18 October 6.5
    19 October 6.3
    20 October 5.2
    21 October 5.0
    22 October 7.3
    24 October 5.6
    25 October 6.2
    26 October 5.6
    27 October 4.2
    29 October 5.3
    30 October 8.5
    1 November ?

    As of noon 29 October the Smolin book's Amazon.com salesrank was #1241 and the average of the five most popular string books was #6628.2. So the ratio was 6628.2/1241 = 5.3.
    The top five stringies today happened to be
    Greene elegant
    Randall warped
    Greene fabric
    Greene elegant hardbound
    Kaku parallel,
    in that order.
    String sales seem to be hampered by the lack of hot new titles. There are indeed new string popularizations but they are not selling so well.

    At noon 30 October Smolin #1116 and topfive stringies average 9458.4, ratio 9458.4/1116 = 8.5
    The individual most popular stringyd books today were:
    warped 3597
    elegant 4759
    fabric 6900
    elegant (Vintage paperback) 15,350
    fabric hardbound 16,686

    Of course the poll is not closed, so someone could still come in and register a competing guess. But unless that happens, Kurt and my guess of 3 will obviously be the closest to whatever the ratio turns out to be. :biggrin:

    Last edited: Oct 30, 2007
  2. jcsd
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