Can Elon Musk's BFR Project Meet Its Ambitious Timeline for Mars Colonization?

[gleem]

Elon Musk presents his updated plan for the colonization of Mars.at the International Astronautical Congress in Australia. First sending two pilotless supply ships to Mars by 2022 using a new rocket, the BFR,.

 

[Borg]

I thought that it was a funny coincidence that BFR could be stated as Big F***ing Rocket. I was curious what it meant and found out that it stands for exactly that.

 

[trurle]

Elon Musk presents his updated plan for the colonization of Mars.at the International Astronautical Congress in Australia. First sending two pilotless supply ships to Mars by 2022 using a new rocket, the BFR,.

The 1.4kt Falcon Heavy was flown 5 years behind initial schedule. Assuming same engineering resources are allocated to 4.5kt BFR, and amount of unexpected problems per ton of hardware is similar to Falcon Heavy, we are realistically looking for first commercial payload on BFR 15 years behind schedule, in ~2037. Actually delay is likely to be even worse if you use a learning curve estimation with realistic (less than 1) learning coefficient.