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My life in Percentages

  1. Apr 15, 2010 #1
    I'm trying to find out where I'm going to be next semester. Of course these original percentages are arbitrary but I don't know how to finish the equation.

    getting into UNC is a 50% shot
    getting into USC is a 95% shot
    staying at SMU = 100%

    a.There's a 50% chance I'll get this tour guide job
    *on a scale of 1-10: 3 on importance scale
    b.There's a 50% chance I'll have a cool room mate next semester
    *3 on importance scale
    c.There's a 30% chance I can acquire a desirable girlfriend by the end of this semester
    *5
    d.There's a 87% chance I'll find a fraternity I want to join and be guaranteed a bid by the end of this semester
    *6
    e.There's a 80% chance I'll have the grades to enter the business school
    *8

    Assuming that I don't get into UNC
    statement y:
    if a,b,c,d,e are true then my chances of going to USC are 20%

    statement z:
    if a,b,c,d,e are false then my chance of going to USC are 80%

    So what is the percentage chance that I'll be going to USC next year?


    Thank you so much
    I know that the chance of a,b,c,d,e all being true is around 5.2% but how do i factor that into the 60% variance of the statements y and z?
     
  2. jcsd
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