# My life in Percentages

1. Apr 15, 2010

### Ryan333221

I'm trying to find out where I'm going to be next semester. Of course these original percentages are arbitrary but I don't know how to finish the equation.

getting into UNC is a 50% shot
getting into USC is a 95% shot
staying at SMU = 100%

a.There's a 50% chance I'll get this tour guide job
*on a scale of 1-10: 3 on importance scale
b.There's a 50% chance I'll have a cool room mate next semester
*3 on importance scale
c.There's a 30% chance I can acquire a desirable girlfriend by the end of this semester
*5
d.There's a 87% chance I'll find a fraternity I want to join and be guaranteed a bid by the end of this semester
*6
e.There's a 80% chance I'll have the grades to enter the business school
*8

Assuming that I don't get into UNC
statement y:
if a,b,c,d,e are true then my chances of going to USC are 20%

statement z:
if a,b,c,d,e are false then my chance of going to USC are 80%

So what is the percentage chance that I'll be going to USC next year?

Thank you so much
I know that the chance of a,b,c,d,e all being true is around 5.2% but how do i factor that into the 60% variance of the statements y and z?