NewScientist: Most scientific papers are probably wrong

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NewScientist: "Most scientific papers are probably wrong"

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7915

Most published scientific research papers are wrong, according to a new analysis. Assuming that the new paper is itself correct, problems with experimental and statistical methods mean that there is less than a 50% chance that the results of any randomly chosen scientific paper are true.
This is no surprise to me if we are considering papers in the social sciences. But I wonder what those of you in the other sciences think about this?
 

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  • #2
Ivan Seeking
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Somewhere out there, there is a paper that uses figures on the strength of a certain dental material that were obtained by me in my garage. I find that to be rather scary! :biggrin:
 
  • #3
Pengwuino
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Ivan Seeking said:
Somewhere out there, there is a paper that uses figures on the strength of a certain dental material that were obtained by me in my garage. I find that to be rather scary! :biggrin:
:mad: :mad: :mad: And I built my garage with that dental material!
 
  • #4
Ivan Seeking
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Pengwuino said:
:mad: :mad: :mad: And I built my garage with that dental material!
As long as you don't bite it you'll be fine. :biggrin:
 
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Pengwuino
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mmm... that might be hard. I didn't have a lot of plaster.... so i used cookie dough.
 
  • #6
LeonhardEuler
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Telos said:
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7915

Most published scientific research papers are wrong, according to a new analysis. Assuming that the new paper is itself correct, problems with experimental and statistical methods mean that there is less than a 50% chance that the results of any randomly chosen scientific paper are true.
This is no surprise to me if we are considering papers in the social sciences. But I wonder what those of you in the other sciences think about this?
This result was obtained in a scientific research paper. The results of scientific research papers have a greater than 50% chance of being wrong. Therefore, there is a greater than 50% chance that the conclusion is wrong. This implies that there is actually not a greater than 50% chance that it is wrong. Since it is probably not wrong, then the conslusion is probably true, which means it is probably wrong... :confused:
 
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Yeah, emphasis on the "assuming that the new paper is itself correct" in the original article.
 

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