Dismiss Notice
Join Physics Forums Today!
The friendliest, high quality science and math community on the planet! Everyone who loves science is here!

No bounce

  1. Aug 1, 2004 #1

    GENIERE

    User Avatar
    Science Advisor

    USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll has found that poor Kerry got no convention bounce and he’s pissed ‘cause the fxcking balloons didn’t fall.

    With the vast number of advisors and consultants all Kerry can manage is to “stand up for the people” whatever that means. No platform, no budget, no nothing!

    The Washington Post reports... Kerry's presidential campaign policy advisors number in the thousands. The campaign has 37 domestic policy councils, 27 foreign policy groups and many others. A justice policy task force alone includes 195 members; Kerry counts more than 200 economists as advisers

    Kerry obviously frets over the most simplistic matters, is driven by indecision, sees the world in a myopic blur, and would be most comfortable in his mothers lap. If elected we will have a billion dollar white house staff, a government immobilized by bureaucratic bilge, as bad and likely worse than the socialist, moribund governments of the EU.

    The report continues; In contrast, President Bush’s campaign policy shop is a no-frills affair. Policy director Tim Adams directs about a dozen experts...
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Aug 1, 2004 #2
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2004
  4. Aug 1, 2004 #3
    Interesting how the Republicans were predicting a huge bounce for the Dems after the DNC and the Dems said they'd be happy with a 2% or 3% bounce. Hmm...
     
  5. Aug 1, 2004 #4

    GENIERE

    User Avatar
    Science Advisor

    If you can't trust polls, how will Kerry make a decision? Bush acts, driving the poll numbers, for better or worse. As Russ Watters astutely pointed out "Kerry doesn't really flip-flop (imo) or have no opinions, he just plays all sides at the same time. By speaking against the war on terror spending bill (for example), then voting in favor of it, it can truly be said that he voted conservatively while thinking liberally." I'll add to that "or opines to reflect what ever the poll of the moment indicates."
     
  6. Aug 2, 2004 #5
    He could think for himself. You know, assess a situation, think about it for a while and determine what the best course to take would be.
     
  7. Aug 2, 2004 #6
    They call this "anti-woofing." Essentially, you downplay predictions in case things don't work out as expected, to avoid embarrassment. And if they work out better than expected, so much the better.
     
  8. Aug 2, 2004 #7

    russ_watters

    User Avatar

    Staff: Mentor

    I posted a thread on the subject, as a matter of fact. Are Dems concerned about the smallest "bounce" in history? I'm not saying they should be - it might be unsurprising considering how polarized the country already seems to be.
    Kerry doesn't seem to be going against the grain so far - I wouldn't bet on that either.
     
  9. Aug 2, 2004 #8

    amp

    User Avatar

    Voters are so locked in on their opinions or to put it another way the voters have for the most part decided who they are voting for so this trampoline has the bounce of an asphalt springboard.
     
  10. Aug 2, 2004 #9

    Ivan Seeking

    User Avatar
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member

    The talking heads on Meet the Press were commenting that the post convention bounce takes about a week in most cases. It all depends on the timing. With current events and the weekend in play, the total bounce should be seen over the next few days. Some polls showed that jumps as high as 10% can be expected in various areas. For example, in the support for Kerry by women.
     
  11. Aug 2, 2004 #10

    Ivan Seeking

    User Avatar
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member

    I never seriously thought these guys [well, first Kerry and now both of them] had a chance until recently; like in the last couple of weeks. Now they are looking and acting like winners. I think Edwards brings the personality and energy to the campaign that was needed for the cameras. Unless something drastic happens it looks like Bush is going down.

    On the McLaughlin Group, even Buchanan admitted that if the election were held today, Kerry would win.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2004
  12. Aug 3, 2004 #11

    kat

    User Avatar

  13. Aug 3, 2004 #12
    Kerry needs to break out that "Secret Plan" he has. That’ll turn those numbers around.
     
  14. Aug 3, 2004 #13

    kat

    User Avatar

    Just fyi, the newsweek poll was not 2% it was rounded up from 1.56 % and they also conveniently changed the way that they had weighted their poll. so that it showed a bounce when in fact, with the weighting adjusted it would show that the statisticians drastically changed the July 29-30 polling sample weightings from those of the July 8/9 poll by lowering the percentage of the Independents by just over 10%, and increasing the percentage of Democrats by about the same amount. Now we're supposed to believe Newsweek when their sample changes so rapidly in only twenty days. If you use the poll sample weightings from the July 8/9 Newsweek poll to rework the poll data from the July 29/30 Newsweek poll to see how the poll results would differ you'd find that it results in a negative 2.26% "bounce" for Kerry instead of Newsweeks published 2% 'bounce' over Bush.
     
  15. Aug 3, 2004 #14

    kat

    User Avatar

    Based on what? every time Kerry gets in the "public eye" his numbers start doing a nose dive. Are they planning to closet him and the mrs. for the duration of the season?
     
  16. Aug 3, 2004 #15

    Ivan Seeking

    User Avatar
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member

    Based on the polling numbers. Beyond that you would have to ask him.

    You can be sure that if he could have reasonably avoided this admission he would have. Apparently it is not reasonable to interpret the information otherwise; not even for Buchanan and that's saying something!
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2004
  17. Aug 3, 2004 #16

    Ivan Seeking

    User Avatar
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member

    not reasonable unless you happen to be to the right of Pat Buchanan I guess.
     
  18. Aug 3, 2004 #17
    The DNC Chairman, Terry McAuliffe, perdicted an 8 to 10 point favorable bounce.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2004
  19. Aug 3, 2004 #18
     
  20. Aug 4, 2004 #19
    much of the text I paste is directly from a Fact sheet given to us all by Ivan Seeking and is present in the form of George Bush talking about himself.

    https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=37249

    Id rather have a 1 billion dollar whitehouse than a 250 billion dollar mistake in Iraq or a 500 billion dollar economic downspin.

    Bush:
    Bush:
    Lol, the most important time when Bush didnt listen to pollsters was when he attacked Iraq. The world did NOT support the invasion, and yes, he ignored them, and went along anyways.
     
  21. Aug 4, 2004 #20

    GENIERE

    User Avatar
    Science Advisor

    Actually Mattius, I think these quotes are more reflective of President Bush's thinking.

    American and Israel share a special bond. Our relationship is unique among all nations. Like America, Israel is a strong democracy, a symbol of freedom, and an oasis of liberty, a home to the oppressed and persecuted.

    I am in support of the NRA position on gun control.

    I don't believe you can find any evidence of the fact that I have changed government policy solely because of a contribution.

    If Saddam rejects peace and we have to use force, our purpose is clear. We want to seriously diminish the threat posed by Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program.

    It takes a long time to turn a big country around. Just be of good cheer and keep working on it.

    Let me say this as clearly as I can: No matter how sharp a grievance or how deep a hurt, there is no justification for killing innocents.

    One way or the other, we are determined to deny Iraq the capacity to develop weapons of mass destruction and the missiles to deliver them. That is our bottom line.

    The community of nations may see more and more of the very kind of threat Iraq poses now: a rogue state with weapons of mass destruction, ready to use them or provide them to terrorists. If we fail to respond today, Saddam and all those who would follow in his footsteps will be emboldened tomorrow.

    There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured with what is right in America.

    To realize the full possibilities of this economy, we must reach beyond our own borders, to shape the revolution that is tearing down barriers and building new networks among nations and individuals, and economies and cultures: globalization. It's the central reality of our time.

    You know, everybody makes mistakes when they are president.
     
Know someone interested in this topic? Share this thread via Reddit, Google+, Twitter, or Facebook

Have something to add?