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Nuclear Probability Question

  • #1
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Homework Statement



The frequency of a tsunami large enough to threaten the safety of a nuclear power plant has been estimated to be 1 in 200 years. If the plant’s life is 65 years what is the probability it will be damaged by such a tsunami? What is this probability more commonly termed?
[2 Marks]

Homework Equations



How do you get a base event failure rate for components with no recorded failures in an operating time T? Let λ = k/T. A Pessimistic Failure Rate λ = 1/T is known as ‘one tomorrow’. A PSA could use k = 0.5525 (For the estimation of failure rates for low probability events see Progress in Nuclear Energy 4 374-476 1997).

The Attempt at a Solution



Probability of no damage = e-λT

λ = 0.5525/200

Probability of damage = 1-e-(0.5525/200)(60) = 0.153

A pessimistic failure rate λ=1/T is known as 'one tomorrow'.

Is this correct or completely wrong? Thank you
 

Answers and Replies

  • #2
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How do you get a base event failure rate for components with no recorded failures in an operating time T? Let λ = k/T. A Pessimistic Failure Rate λ = 1/T is known as ‘one tomorrow’. A PSA could use k = 0.5525 (For the estimation of failure rates for low probability events see Progress in Nuclear Energy 4 374-476 1997).
You are overthinking this. The problem statement gives you the rate. Where this number comes from is a different question not relevant here.
 
  • #3
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You are overthinking this. The problem statement gives you the rate. Where this number comes from is a different question not relevant here.
Are you sure? So would you say 0.325? Seems too simple.
 
  • #4
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9,957
You'll still need the exponential function.
 
  • #5
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You'll still need the exponential function.
Do you get 0.259?

λ = 1/200
Probability of damage = 1-e-(1/200)(60) = 0.259
 
  • #6
34,070
9,957
That's how I would answer the problem.
 

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