The frequency of a tsunami large enough to threaten the safety of a nuclear power plant has been estimated to be 1 in 200 years. If the plant’s life is 65 years what is the probability it will be damaged by such a tsunami? What is this probability more commonly termed?
How do you get a base event failure rate for components with no recorded failures in an operating time T? Let λ = k/T. A Pessimistic Failure Rate λ = 1/T is known as ‘one tomorrow’. A PSA could use k = 0.5525 (For the estimation of failure rates for low probability events see Progress in Nuclear Energy 4 374-476 1997).
The Attempt at a Solution
Probability of no damage = e-λT
λ = 0.5525/200
Probability of damage = 1-e-(0.5525/200)(60) = 0.153
A pessimistic failure rate λ=1/T is known as 'one tomorrow'.
Is this correct or completely wrong? Thank you