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Ohio 2005 vote

  1. Nov 13, 2005 #1
    Some of these numbers look very funny. Anyone know any more about this? Like other polls that might be more in line with the actual results that were observed last week?

    http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2005/1559

     
  2. jcsd
  3. Nov 13, 2005 #2

    Pengwuino

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    You do realize California's proposition results were waaaaaaay off what the pollers had predicted as well...

    Mountain out of a molehill...
     
  4. Nov 13, 2005 #3
    So it's unanimous. They're obviously undermining the democratic system all across the states. No one is safe.
     
  5. Nov 13, 2005 #4

    Pengwuino

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    who is though? democrat and conservative propositions both got shot down. Get outa here with your conspiracy theories :tongue:
     
  6. Nov 13, 2005 #5
    No, I didn't realize. I had thought they matched the pre-election polling numbers within a few percentage points. Got a reference? (not rhetorical, I'd like to see one.)

    The ohio numbers were off by 30 points from the pre-election polls, if the linked report is right. Is that a "molehill?" (Also not rhetorical) :confused:

    I eagerly await your response to the above two queries, and if this somehow gets missed by you (ie if you don't respond) I'll bump the thread up to bring it back to your attention. Cuz I'd like that reference, as well as your opinion if 30 points (out of 100) constitutes a molehill.

    Patty
     
  7. Nov 13, 2005 #6

    Pengwuino

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  8. Nov 13, 2005 #7
    Thank you Penguino. The 8% swing is "news to me" and I appreciate the link.

    I've tried to find the poll in the Columbus Dispatch that the link in the OP mentions. Evidently it is only available if you register which carries a charge that I don't want to pay. I found little else in the news regarding pre-election polls in Ohio.
     
  9. Nov 13, 2005 #8

    Pengwuino

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    Annd patty, can you find a non-bias website for that article. I mean when i read 'official vote count on november 8' (uhm, you mean unofficial polling by independant polling organizations?) and 'statistical impossibility' (as it pertains to an eleciton)... i figured this wasn't a real article with any journalistic integrity.
     
  10. Nov 13, 2005 #9
    http://vote2005.ss.ca.gov/Returns/prop/00.htm

    Penguion:

    Code (Text):

            From your source    from the above link
    Prop 73:
    yes     44          47.4
    no      56          52.6
    difference 3%
    Prop 74:
    yes     46          45
    no      54          55
    difference 1%
    Prop 75:
    yes     52          46.6
    no      47          53.4
    difference 5%
    Prop 76:
    yes     34          38
    no      66          62
    difference 4%
    Prop 77:
    yes     40          40.5
    no      60          59.5
    difference 0.5%
    Prop 78:
    yes     49          41.5
    no      51          58.5
    difference 7.5%
    Prop 79:
    yes     49          38.9
    no      51          61.1
    difference 10%
    Prop 80:
    yes     37          34.3
    no      63          65.7
    difference 3%
     
    The largest divergence from the California special election was ~10%; however the trend was accure i.e. the pre-election polling showed a defeat and the results were just that---a defeat. 10% is within what most engineers(or statistitions) would consider an acceptible result.

    The Ohio election shows a 30% swing though. 30% swings in election results are signs of tampering in other countries; moreover, as patty's article startes:

    How do you account for that?

    You can remove all of the words from the article but you are still left the actual results and the Dispatch's poll. You can attack the article if you want but that DOESN'T change the huge disperity between the poll conducted 4 days prior to the election and the results.
     
  11. Nov 13, 2005 #10
    lol. Interesting how you use 'democrat' and 'conservative' as if they're not the same thing.
     
  12. Nov 13, 2005 #11

    loseyourname

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    Must be the legislators themselves. They're the only people in whose interest it is for no propositions to pass.
     
  13. Nov 13, 2005 #12
    As I said in post 7, I couldn't find much else. This was also the basis for the question in the first post.

    You act as though every liberal is trying to fight with you Penguino, but it ain't so. It's not worth the time. As I said initially, "Does anyone know anything about this? Does anyone know of other sources for pre-election poll numbers? The numbers look funny."

    The numbers (not the bias in the link) are the most interesting bit. The numbers in the link appear at first blush to be correct --- Ex: several independent news articles pre-election predicted that issues 1, 2, and 3 would pass.

    A link for you:

    http://www.dispatch.com/election.php?story=dispatch/2005/11/06/20051106-A1-01.html

    This is from before the election, and claims that issues 2 and 3 appeared supported in the Columbus Dispatch poll, and that the poll had a margin of eror of 2-3 points.

    IOW, the results in the biased article with which I started the thread, appear accurately reported. A thirty point swing is remarkable, to say the least! Wouldn't you agree?

    The authors of the article in the link in the OP have a bias. But as Faust said, was there really a 30 point spread in pre-election polls and results? (I don't know.) If there is, isn't that a red flag? Answer: YES. The Columbus Dispatch has been polling for decades, and is routinely within 3 points (according to the link in the original post.)
     
  14. Nov 13, 2005 #13
    I don't know if this is accurate statement. The link Penguino provided said it had a margin of error of 5%. There were about 500 - 600 respondents. A ten point error is a SD or two beyond what is expected. You get that sort of deviation a small percentage of the time.

    The Dispatch poll claimed a margin of error of 2 - 3 %. There were about 1800 respondents. A thirty point error is *many* SD's beyond what you expect, at least I would guess this to be the case without seeing the raw data.

    In other words, there may have been fraud in CA, but if there was, the numbers in Ohio are a dead giveaway that there was fraud in Ohio, and on isses that were written to prevent election fraud.

    I'd still like to see other pre-election polls, and haven't found any yet. It's possible that this particular Dispatch poll was an outlyer compared to other polls. The link in the original post appears biased, that's plain to see.
     
  15. Nov 13, 2005 #14

    Pengwuino

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    Or that the polling was done incorrectly.... find proof before making accusations. I mean we all must act rational here... we're not the "guilty before proven innocent" democrats that are prevelant throughout the liberal world.

    I also gotta agree... 10% is fairly unacceptable (and to say engineers believe 10% margin of error is acceptable.... :surprised :surprised :surprised). The acceptable margin of error is.... well basically what they say their margin of error is. I'm finding a few decently reputable sources saying there was a lot of confusion and irresponsible behavior in a few counties... but no one even mentiosn fraud.
     
  16. Nov 13, 2005 #15

    Pengwuino

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    haha oops, guess i got sidetracked there. I meant liberal and conservative issues
     
  17. Nov 13, 2005 #16
    Indeed.

    I wonder if anyone has (or can find) any other pre election polls to compare to the Dispatch's numbers ... (As I have mentioned several times in this thread. )
     
  18. Nov 13, 2005 #17

    Pengwuino

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    USA Today and Stanford must have done polls....

    And this 30% thing seems rather exagerated. Statstically, in that worst case initiative, only 10% of the decided had to jump ship (neglecting margin of error as well) for the results to come out the way it did. Another thing.... how the hell did they get so many undecided voters? Almost every california poll had.. 3.. 4 percent undecided and these guys had something like 25% undecided?
     
  19. Nov 13, 2005 #18

    Gokul43201

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    The Columbus Dispatch has a more accurate polling result history than virtually any organization in the country (Zogby, Gallup, Pew, Rasmussen, AP, etc. don't come close, from what I've heard). This is what the Dispatch is famous for, and they take pride in it. I'll see if I can find a link to confirm this.
     
  20. Nov 13, 2005 #19

    Gokul43201

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  21. Nov 13, 2005 #20

    Evo

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    Reminds me of the 2004 Ohio exit polls that were so far off.
     
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