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News Outlook for the Global Economy

  1. Nov 17, 2014 #1

    Astronuc

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    Japan Slides Into Recession as Tax Hike Takes Toll
    http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/japan-slides-recession-tax-hike-takes-toll-26960189

    EU seems somewhat optimistic, at least about EU and US.
    http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2014/pdf/ee2_en.pdf

    The Economist is less optimistic - http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/11/european-economy-guide
    And there is Russia's incursion into Ukraine.

    Back in October, the IMF cut the 2015 Global Growth Forecast to 3.8%, while indicating the Eurozone faces 38% probability of re-entering recession in next six months
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/imf-...recast-0-2-percentage-point-to-3-8-1412686808

    That was before the news from Japan.

    Is there any good news?
     
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  3. Nov 17, 2014 #2

    Bystander

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    What's the Samuelson quotation? Something along the lines that economics has finally come of age as a true science, and correctly predicted seven out of the last five recessions?
     
  4. Jan 12, 2015 #3

    Dotini

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    The fall in the price of oil is accelerating.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102328757

    U.S. stock markets will experience a pullback from their record highs at the end of February, according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, who believes that fund managers have become too bullish on the market.

    Citing data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), published on Friday, Kostin said he believes that positions have grown "extreme" in the past five weeks — but he did say the S&P 500 could still end the year higher.

    "The U.S. equity markets are likely to experience a pull-back some time in the next 4-6 weeks and that would be pretty consistent with the magnitude of an extreme reading we see in the commodities futures trading corporation data," he told CNBC Monday.
     
  5. Jan 12, 2015 #4

    Astronuc

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    Spillover effect: Oil price crash bankrupting 'small oil'
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102318531
    Layoffs, cutbacks and likely M&As

    Back in October - Oil price declines have small-cap shale investors scrambling
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102139211
    This week Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate are near $45/bbl.

    Russia faces wave of bankruptcies
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-faces-wave-bankruptcies-120700044.html [Broken]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 7, 2017
  6. Jan 12, 2015 #5

    Bystander

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  7. Jan 12, 2015 #6
    I doubt Russia is sweating this. I have to believe this was something they predicted would happen. They are too smart to be caught off guard by this.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2017
  8. Jan 12, 2015 #7
    Ah right. LOL.
     
  9. Jan 13, 2015 #8

    Dotini

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    Russians are smart, but how deep are their pockets? This may be the time to squeeze them until something breaks - us, them or Europe.
     
  10. Jan 16, 2015 #9

    Dotini

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  11. Jan 16, 2015 #10
    Smart people don't willingly go into a confrontation with two most powerful economies on the planet (EU and US) whose combined economy is nearly 20 times bigger than theirs, and whose population is five times bigger that theirs.
     
  12. Jan 17, 2015 #11
    It seems that ECB is preparing a QE.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30810137

    I treat it as a good news, because it seems as good idea to start the economy and so far Germans were blocking such ideas.
     
  13. Jan 17, 2015 #12

    lisab

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    I hadn't heard that. I agree, that is good news. But some time ago, I read the ECB didn't have the authority to do such a thing. Did things change, or did I read/understand what I read incorrectly? (Sorry I don't remember where I read it -- it was a long time ago, when the Euro crisis started.)
     
  14. Jan 18, 2015 #13
    We hired W. Bush legal experts to reassure us that all we want to do is legal ;)

    And more seriously, according to rules:
    -EU countries are not liable for each other debt
    -ECB is to maintain low inflation

    When we (OK, I technically live outside eurozone) face deflation then, ECB can claim that in such extraordinary situation does everything according to rules. Especially when negative interest rates turned out not to be powerful enough.

    Rumour:
    "What appears to be shaping up, according to a report in Der Spiegel, is that each national central bank would be able to purchase up to 20%-25% of its outstanding national debt. That would spread the risk around the Eurozone and assuage some of Germany’s concerns."
     
  15. Jan 22, 2015 #14
  16. Aug 15, 2015 #15

    Astronuc

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    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bananas-phones-cheaper-yuan-could-094346891.html [Broken]
    Euro ministers give blessing to Greek bailout, wooing IMF on debt
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-ministers-blessing-greek-bailout-080323057.html

    Greece's euro partners approve billions in new loans
    http://news.yahoo.com/greece-night-debate-bailout-043559778.html [Broken]

    Greece gets third bailout
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33934238
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 7, 2017
  17. Aug 30, 2015 #16

    Astronuc

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    I was listening to a radio program this afternoon. One of the economists being interviewed discussed the slowdown in China, the collapse of the Chinese equities markets, and the ongoing commodity glut.

    I was searching various programs trying to find the interview. Meanwhile I found:

    How The Price Of Oil Caused A Downturn In The Recycling Business
    http://www.npr.org/2015/04/03/39721...l-caused-a-downturn-in-the-recycling-business

    BHP Billiton warns global commodity supply glut to persist (CANBERRA, June 3, 2015)
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/03/australia-minerals-bhp-billiton-idUSL3N0YN2JW20150603

    World Bank Sees Commodities Headed for Another Bad Year on Glut (July 22, 2015)
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ther-bad-year-for-commodites-as-supplies-jump

    China's Tricky Economic Transition: From Steel Mills To E-Commerce
    http://www.npr.org/sections/paralle...transition-from-steel-mills-to-shopping-malls


    With Futures Tied To Mining, Some Montana Towns Seek New Ways To Get By
    http://www.npr.org/2015/08/29/43585...ng-some-montana-towns-seek-new-ways-to-get-by

    Even a modest slowdown in China sacks the global commodities market
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...760144-4cce-11e5-bfb9-9736d04fc8e4_story.html

    Shaky Stocks And A Global Correction
    http://onpoint.wbur.org/2015/08/25/global-stock-market-correction-black-monday

    and now

    Italy's Eni finds 'supergiant' natural gas field off Egypt
    http://news.yahoo.com/eni-says-found-supergiant-natural-gas-field-off-133441315--finance.html [Broken]

    Great for Eni, great for Eqypt, great for the EU wanting to get off Russian natural gas. Not so great for the gas industry, which like other commodities markets is experiencing a glut of gas, which necessarily drive prices down.

    Update - Israel also has gas fields, apparently yet undeveloped
    http://news.yahoo.com/egypt-gas-sparks-panic-israel-israeli-reserves-174120594.html [Broken]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 7, 2017
  18. Aug 30, 2015 #17
    In Poland I've seen jokes that we just saw butterfly effect, how fracking in the USA made Belarus to release political prisoners.

    (fracking and unconventional oil prices -> oil glut and falling oil prices -> damage to Russian economy, not enough money for supporting vassal states -> Belarus has to look for money in the West, so tries in hurry to improve its human rights record)
     
  19. Aug 30, 2015 #18

    mheslep

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    A glut perhaps in N. America from shale gas, not Europe/Africa. Gas is expensive to push across oceans, unlike oil.
     
  20. Aug 31, 2015 #19

    Astronuc

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    Well, gas goes wherever the market is, and it's most likely Europe. There is precedent for undersea natural gas pipelines.

    http://www.offshore-technology.com/...he-worlds-longest-offshore-pipelines-4365616/
    https://www.gassco.no/en/our-activities/pipelines-and-platforms/langeled/
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Langeled_pipeline [1,166 kilometres (725 mi)]
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream [1,222 kilometres (759 mi)]

    The distance from Port Said, Egypt to Taranto, Italy is only ~ 1050 miles (1700 kilometers), or from Alexandria to Taranto the distance is ~ 952 miles (1533 kilometers) and one could move closer from the border with Libya.

    Otherwise, one ships LNG.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LNG_carrier
    http://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/natural-gas/liquefied-natural-gas/lng-shipping.html
     
  21. Aug 31, 2015 #20

    mheslep

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    Gas goes mostly to wherever the pipeline takes it, and the small remainder goes wherever liquefied gas infrastructure takes it. The only LNG that leaves the US currently goes out of Alaska to Japan, about 0.05% of total US production. US exports of LNG to Europe are currently zero, even though Europe probably qualifies as the worlds best, large, high gas price market.

    Yes, no doubt the new gas find off Egypt will find its way to Europe, a large market with gas prices triple that of the US, and just as certainly the new find will have little to no effect on the US gas industry in the way that oil finds do. Your earlier statement that there is a "glut of gas" only applies in N. America; there's no glut in the European and Asian markets, hence the high price of gas in those markets. The Egyptian field may curtail Russia's Gasprom sales to Europe a bit, but that seems unlikely given Europe is still under-supplied.
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2015
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