Calculating Probabilities of Winning at Risk

In summary, to calculate the probabilities of winning a battle in the game Risk, one could write a computer program to determine the frequency of possible outcomes for each combination of attacker and defender dice rolls. It would also be helpful to analyze whether it is advantageous to always use the maximum number of dice. Finally, a program could be created to display a table of probabilities for different attacker/defender combinations using the previously calculated frequencies.
  • #1
alexbib
62
0
How could I calculate the probabilities of winning a battle in the game Risk (for example, if I attack 10 guys with 15 of my own)? For those who don't know the game, the attacker throws 3 and takes the best 2 dices, the defender 2, but a defence dice beats an attack dice on the same number. You cannot throw more dices than you have soldiers.
 
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  • #2
-I- would do it by:

(a) writing a short computer program to run through all possible combinations of dice rolls to get the frequency of each possible outcome of each possible dice combination.

(b) Compute, in general, whether it's better or not to always use the most dice available to you.

(c) Write a short program to use the previously calculated frequencies to print to screen a table of probabilities for various attacker/defender combinations.
 
  • #3
Grammatical note: there is no such word as "dices".

"Dice" is already plural. The singular is "die".
 
  • #4
ok, thanks mates!
 

What is the basic concept of calculating probabilities in Risk?

The basic concept of calculating probabilities in Risk is determining the likelihood of winning a battle or conquering a territory based on the number of attacking and defending armies. This involves understanding the dice rolling mechanics and the different outcomes that can occur.

How do I calculate the probability of winning a battle in Risk?

To calculate the probability of winning a battle in Risk, you need to first determine the number of attacking and defending armies, and then use a probability chart or formula to determine the likelihood of each possible outcome. This can also be done using a Risk probability calculator or by simulating the battle multiple times.

What factors affect the probability of winning in Risk?

The factors that affect the probability of winning in Risk include the number of attacking and defending armies, the number of dice rolled by each player, and the number of territories involved in the battle. Additionally, strategic decisions such as using reinforcement cards and choosing which territories to attack can also impact the probability of winning.

How accurate are the calculated probabilities in Risk?

The calculated probabilities in Risk are based on mathematical formulas and probability charts, so they can provide a fairly accurate estimate of the likelihood of winning a battle. However, they do not take into account the element of luck and the randomness of dice rolls, so they should be used as a guide rather than a guarantee of success.

Are there any tips for improving my chances of winning battles in Risk?

Yes, there are several tips that can improve your chances of winning battles in Risk. These include understanding the probabilities and using them to make strategic decisions, focusing on conquering territories with higher numbers of armies, and using reinforcement cards wisely. It is also important to consider the overall game strategy and not just focus on individual battles.

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