Who will win the popular vote and by what margin?

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  • Thread starter Gokul43201
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    Game
In summary, a game has been set up for predicting the results of the 2008 Presidential Election. Participants must enter their predictions for each state and will receive points for correct answers. There is also a bonus question to break any potential ties. The deadline for submissions is Monday, November 3rd at midnight Eastern Standard Time.
  • #1
Gokul43201
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Going into the weekend before the elections, here's a game for everyone!

RULES:

1. Enter R (for McCain-Palin), D (for Obama-Biden), or X (for other) in the spaces provided beside the states, to submit your predictions of who will win which state in the 2008 Presidential Election. You may also leave some states blank, if you do not wish to make a guess for that state.

2. You get 1 point for every correct prediction, -1 for every incorrect prediction, and 0 for every blank.

3. You must also answer the Bonus question, which will be used only to break a tie, if two or more players end up with the same final score. See the example provided in the next post for an acceptable answer format for the bonus question.

4. The winner will be dubbed the Electoral Geek of 2008. :biggrin:


DEADLINE:

Entries submitted after midnight (Eastern Standard Time, US) on the night of Monday, Nov 3 will not be eligible for the game. This is a little over 2.5 days from now, and will be Tuesday morning/afternoon for most parts of Europe/Africa/Asia. I will post reminders as we get closer to the submission deadline.


FANTASY TABLE:

Code:
    * Alabama                - 
    * Alaska                 - 
    * Arizona                -
    * Arkansas               -
    * California             -
    * Colorado               -
    * Connecticut            -
    * Delaware               -
    * District of Columbia   -
    * Florida                -
    * Georgia                -
    * Hawaii                 -
    * Idaho                  -
    * Illinois               -
    * Indiana                -
    * Iowa                   -
    * Kansas                 -
    * Kentucky               -
    * Louisiana              -
    * Maine                  -
    * Maryland               -
    * Massachusetts          -
    * Michigan               -
    * Minnesota              -
    * Mississippi            -
    * Missouri               -
    * Montana                -
    * Nebraska               -
    * Nevada                 -
    * New Hampshire          -
    * New Jersey             -
    * New Mexico             -
    * New York               -
    * North Carolina         -
    * North Dakota           -
    * Ohio                   -
    * Oklahoma               -
    * Oregon                 -
    * Pennsylvania           -
    * Rhode Island           -
    * South Carolina         - 
    * South Dakota           -
    * Tennessee              -
    * Texas                  -
    * Utah                   -
    * Vermont                -
    * Virginia               -
    * Washington             -
    * West Virginia          -
    * Wisconsin              -
    * Wyoming                -


BONUS QUESTION:

Who will win the popular vote, and what will be the margin of victory over the runner up (as a percentage of total votes counted, to 4 significant figures)?


WINNER:

The winner (highest scorer) will be announced no later than Wednesday night (EST-US), barring any last minute glitches or required counting of provisional ballots (the necessity of which will be decided by me).


NOTE:

When copying the fantasy table, it is preferable to first hit the QUOTE button (either on this post, or any other post containing a properly formatted fantasy table), and then either:
(i) copy the entire table (including the code tags) from there into a new post and enter your predictions, or
(ii) simply delete everything other than the table, put in your predictions, and submit.

See the example submission below.
 
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  • #2
Example Submission

Here's an example of what your entry might look like:

FANTASY TABLE:

Code:
    * Alabama                - R
    * Alaska                 - D
    * Arizona                - X
    * Arkansas               - R
    * California             - D
    * Colorado               - X
    * Connecticut            - 
    * Delaware               - D
    * District of Columbia   - X
    * Florida                - R
    * Georgia                - 
    * Hawaii                 - X
    * Idaho                  - R
    * Illinois               - D
    * Indiana                - 
    * Iowa                   - R
    * Kansas                 - D
    * Kentucky               - X
    * Louisiana              - 
    * Maine                  - D
    * Maryland               - X
    * Massachusetts          - R
    * Michigan               - D
    * Minnesota              - X
    * Mississippi            - R
    * Missouri               - D
    * Montana                - X
    * Nebraska               - R
    * Nevada                 - 
    * New Hampshire          - X
    * New Jersey             - R
    * New Mexico             - D
    * New York               - X
    * North Carolina         - R
    * North Dakota           - D
    * Ohio                   - X
    * Oklahoma               - R
    * Oregon                 - D
    * Pennsylvania           - X
    * Rhode Island           - R
    * South Carolina         - D 
    * South Dakota           - X
    * Tennessee              - R
    * Texas                  - D
    * Utah                   - X
    * Vermont                - R
    * Virginia               - D
    * Washington             - 
    * West Virginia          - R
    * Wisconsin              - D
    * Wyoming                - X
BONUS QUESTION:

McCain-Palin will exceed Obama-Biden by a popular vote margin of 12.34%
 
  • #3
No subliminal messages predicting an explosive election were intended in the above example. Nor any suggesting a penetrating analysis.

There's no immediate hurry to turn in your entry now. Feel free to wait until you think you're ready, but no longer than the time till the posted deadline. If you do turn in an entry that you are later unsatisfied with, you can submit a new entry, so long as it is on time. The last submitted entry is the one that counts. Do not submit partial entries or simply post errata/corrections to previous entries - only submit a fully completed entry.

Any questions?
 
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  • #4
Gokul43201 said:
Going into the weekend before the elections, here's a game for everyone!
FANTASY TABLE:

Code:
    * Alabama                R 
    * Alaska                 R 
    * Arizona                D
    * Arkansas               R
    * California             D
    * Colorado               D
    * Connecticut            D
    * Delaware               D
    * District of Columbia   D
    * Florida                D
    * Georgia                R
    * Hawaii                 D
    * Idaho                  R
    * Illinois               D
    * Indiana                D
    * Iowa                   D
    * Kansas                 R
    * Kentucky               R
    * Louisiana              R
    * Maine                  D
    * Maryland               D
    * Massachusetts          D
    * Michigan               D
    * Minnesota              D
    * Mississippi            R
    * Missouri               D
    * Montana                D
    * Nebraska               R
    * Nevada                 D
    * New Hampshire          D
    * New Jersey             D
    * New Mexico             D
    * New York               D
    * North Carolina         D
    * North Dakota           D
    * Ohio                   D
    * Oklahoma               R
    * Oregon                 D
    * Pennsylvania           D
    * Rhode Island           D
    * South Carolina         R 
    * South Dakota           R
    * Tennessee              R
    * Texas                  R
    * Utah                   R
    * Vermont                D
    * Virginia               D
    * Washington             D
    * West Virginia          R
    * Wisconsin              D
    * Wyoming                R

BONUS QUESTION:

Who will win the popular vote, and what will be the margin of victory over the runner up (as a percentage of total votes counted, to 4 significant figures)?

O man wins by a margin of 8.888%

I better get a cookie out of this at the very least. Last minute submission is for rookies and cheaters. :biggrin:

Are we allow to make commentary to justify our prediction? I want to see how my inner six-sense fair against 538 Nate's supercomputers.


Edit: commentary
- I predict the feeling of inevitable outcome will settle in soon. Some McCain voters will choose to stay home. Conversely, the bandwagon effect will bring in some free riders for Obama
- So far, youth vote has yet to materialized in early-voting stat. But I do think youngsters will ultimately head to the polls. Obama's GOTV effort will wipe the floor the same way it did during the primary
- factor in one more major blunder from McCain, Sarah, their team, or Joe the Plumber
- factor in undecided getting sick of negative ad, robo-call, nasty snail mail, false information, race-baiting
- factor in recent victories against voter suppression tactic
- factor in lack of Diebold effect
- factor in Bob Barr and Ron Paul
- factor in Obama campaign's ability to surprise reasonable expectation
 
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  • #5
Feel free to add any commentary, but do not post links to any other sites that make projections. Keep in mind that if others find your arguments compelling, they may chose to copy your (somewhat brave) predictions.

I take it your 8.888% margin is meant to favor Obama-Biden. Please make this clear - you can edit you post if you read this today.
 
  • #6
Code:
    * Alabama                R 
    * Alaska                 R 
    * Arizona                R
    * Arkansas               R
    * California             D
    * Colorado               D
    * Connecticut            D
    * Delaware               D
    * District of Columbia   D
    * Florida                D
    * Georgia                R
    * Hawaii                 D
    * Idaho                  R
    * Illinois               D
    * Indiana                D
    * Iowa                   D
    * Kansas                 R
    * Kentucky               R
    * Louisiana              R
    * Maine                  D
    * Maryland               D
    * Massachusetts          D
    * Michigan               D
    * Minnesota              D
    * Mississippi            R
    * Missouri               R
    * Montana                R
    * Nebraska               R
    * Nevada                 D
    * New Hampshire          D
    * New Jersey             D
    * New Mexico             D
    * New York               D
    * North Carolina         R
    * North Dakota           R
    * Ohio                   D
    * Oklahoma               R
    * Oregon                 D
    * Pennsylvania           D
    * Rhode Island           D
    * South Carolina         R 
    * South Dakota           R
    * Tennessee              R
    * Texas                  R
    * Utah                   R
    * Vermont                D
    * Virginia               D
    * Washington             D
    * West Virginia          R
    * Wisconsin              D
    * Wyoming                R


BONUS QUESTION:

Who will win the popular vote, and what will be the margin of victory over the runner up (as a percentage of total votes counted, to 4 significant figures)?

Obama by 4.673%

This turns into a 349-189 win for Obama in the Electoral College. If McCain mounts a furious surge in the last weekend, he might get this down to 286-252 defeat (I think a more strategic move would have been to leave OH, FL and IN blank, but what's the fun in that.)
 
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  • #7
Code:
    * Alabama                R 
    * Alaska                   R 
    * Arizona                  R
    * Arkansas               R
    * California             D
    * Colorado               D
    * Connecticut            D
    * Delaware               D
    * District of Columbia   D
    * Florida                D
    * Georgia                R
    * Hawaii                 D
    * Idaho                  R
    * Illinois               D
    * Indiana                D
    * Iowa                   R
    * Kansas                 R
    * Kentucky               D
    * Louisiana              D
    * Maine                  D
    * Maryland               D
    * Massachusetts          D
    * Michigan               D
    * Minnesota              D
    * Mississippi            R
    * Missouri               D
    * Montana                R
    * Nebraska               R
    * Nevada                 R
    * New Hampshire          D
    * New Jersey             D
    * New Mexico             D
    * New York               D
    * North Carolina         D
    * North Dakota           R
    * Ohio                   D
    * Oklahoma               R
    * Oregon                 R
    * Pennsylvania           D
    * Rhode Island           D
    * South Carolina         D
    * South Dakota           R
    * Tennessee              D
    * Texas                  R
    * Utah                   D
    * Vermont                D
    * Virginia               D
    * Washington             D
    * West Virginia          D
    * Wisconsin              D
    * Wyoming                R
BONUS QUESTION:

Who will win the popular vote, and what will be the margin of victory over the runner up (as a percentage of total votes counted, to 4 significant figures)?

Obama wins the popular vote by a margin of 5%.
 
  • #8
I think this contest should be closed to any employees of Diebold or Diebold Election Systems, or members of their immediate families, as they may be privy to some results that may have already been programmed in.
 
  • #9
Code:
    * Alabama                -R
    * Alaska                 -R
    * Arizona                -D
    * Arkansas               -R
    * California             -D
    * Colorado               -D
    * Connecticut            -D
    * Delaware               -D
    * District of Columbia   -D
    * Florida                -D
    * Georgia                -D
    * Hawaii                 -D
    * Idaho                  -R
    * Illinois               -D
    * Indiana                -D
    * Iowa                   -D
    * Kansas                 -R
    * Kentucky               -R
    * Louisiana              -R
    * Maine                  -D
    * Maryland               -D
    * Massachusetts          -D
    * Michigan               -D
    * Minnesota              -D
    * Mississippi            -R
    * Missouri               -D
    * Montana                -D
    * Nebraska               -R
    * Nevada                 -D
    * New Hampshire          -D
    * New Jersey             -D
    * New Mexico             -D
    * New York               -D
    * North Carolina         -D
    * North Dakota           -R
    * Ohio                   -D
    * Oklahoma               -R
    * Oregon                 -D
    * Pennsylvania           -D
    * Rhode Island           -D
    * South Carolina         -R
    * South Dakota           -R
    * Tennessee              -R
    * Texas                  -R
    * Utah                   -R
    * Vermont                -D
    * Virginia               -D
    * Washington             -D
    * West Virginia          -R
    * Wisconsin              -D
    * Wyoming                -R

I filled in all of them, so that's what will count toward my points but I just want to make clear that I'm iffy on the following: AZ, ND, MT, GA, MO and IN.
Bonus: Obama-Biden will beat McCain-Palin by 9.145%
Other prediction (just for fun/bragging rights): Voter turnout will be 61%.
 
  • #10
Code:
    * Alabama                -O 
    * Alaska                 -B 
    * Arizona                -A
    * Arkansas               -M
    * California             -A
    * Colorado               -O
    * Connecticut            -B
    * Delaware               -A
    * District of Columbia   -M
    * Florida                -A
    * Georgia                -O
    * Hawaii                 -B
    * Idaho                  -A
    * Illinois               -M
    * Indiana                -A
    * Iowa                   -O
    * Kansas                 -B
    * Kentucky               -A
    * Louisiana              -M
    * Maine                  -A
    * Maryland               -O
    * Massachusetts          -B
    * Michigan               -A
    * Minnesota              -M
    * Mississippi            -A
    * Missouri               -O
    * Montana                -B
    * Nebraska               -A
    * Nevada                 -M
    * New Hampshire          -A
    * New Jersey             -O
    * New Mexico             -B
    * New York               -A
    * North Carolina         -M
    * North Dakota           -A
    * Ohio                   -O
    * Oklahoma               -B
    * Oregon                 -A
    * Pennsylvania           -M
    * Rhode Island           -A
    * South Carolina         - O
    * South Dakota           -B
    * Tennessee              -A
    * Texas                  -M
    * Utah                   -A
    * Vermont                -O
    * Virginia               -B
    * Washington             -A
    * West Virginia          -M
    * Wisconsin              -A
    * Wyoming                - !
 
  • #11
Reminder: 15 hours to go before the game is closed to submissions.
 
  • #12
Code:
    * Alabama                -R
    * Alaska                 -R
    * Arizona                -R
    * Arkansas               -R
    * California             -D
    * Colorado               -D
    * Connecticut            -D
    * Delaware               -D
    * District of Columbia   -D
    * Florida                -D
    * Georgia                -R
    * Hawaii                 -D
    * Idaho                  -R
    * Illinois               -D
    * Indiana                -D
    * Iowa                   -D
    * Kansas                 -R
    * Kentucky               -R
    * Louisiana              -R
    * Maine                  -D
    * Maryland               -D
    * Massachusetts          -D
    * Michigan               -D
    * Minnesota              -D
    * Mississippi            -R
    * Missouri               -D
    * Montana                -R
    * Nebraska               -R
    * Nevada                 -D
    * New Hampshire          -D
    * New Jersey             -D
    * New Mexico             -D
    * New York               -D
    * North Carolina         -R
    * North Dakota           -R
    * Ohio                   -D
    * Oklahoma               -R
    * Oregon                 -D
    * Pennsylvania           -D
    * Rhode Island           -D
    * South Carolina         -R
    * South Dakota           -R
    * Tennessee              -R
    * Texas                  -R
    * Utah                   -R
    * Vermont                -D
    * Virginia               -D
    * Washington             -D
    * West Virginia          -R
    * Wisconsin              -D
    * Wyoming                -R

I'm stealing check's, but I might alter some.

Bonus: Obama by 3.842
 
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  • #13
FANTASY TABLE:

Code:
    * Alabama                -R 
    * Alaska                 -R
    * Arizona                -R
    * Arkansas               -R
    * California             -D
    * Colorado               -D
    * Connecticut            -D
    * Delaware               -D
    * District of Columbia   -D
    * Florida                -R
    * Georgia                -R
    * Hawaii                 -D
    * Idaho                  -R
    * Illinois               -D
    * Indiana                -R
    * Iowa                   -R
    * Kansas                 -R
    * Kentucky               -R
    * Louisiana              -R
    * Maine                  -D
    * Maryland               -D
    * Massachusetts          -D
    * Michigan               -D
    * Minnesota              -D
    * Mississippi            -R
    * Missouri               -R
    * Montana                -R
    * Nebraska               -R
    * Nevada                 -R
    * New Hampshire          -D
    * New Jersey             -D
    * New Mexico             -D
    * New York               -D
    * North Carolina         -R
    * North Dakota           -R
    * Ohio                   -R
    * Oklahoma               -R
    * Oregon                 -D
    * Pennsylvania           -D
    * Rhode Island           -D
    * South Carolina         - R
    * South Dakota           -R
    * Tennessee              -R
    * Texas                  -R
    * Utah                   -R
    * Vermont                -D
    * Virginia               -R
    * Washington             -D
    * West Virginia          -R
    * Wisconsin              -D
    * Wyoming                - R

Obama - 273
McCain - 263

BONUS QUESTION:

Who will win the popular vote, and what will be the margin of victory over the runner up (as a percentage of total votes counted, to 4 significant figures)?

2.000
 
  • #14
Code:
    * Alabama                -R 
    * Alaska                 -R
    * Arizona                -R
    * Arkansas               -R
    * California             -D
    * Colorado               -D
    * Connecticut            -D
    * Delaware               -D
    * District of Columbia   -D
    * Florida                -D
    * Georgia                -R
    * Hawaii                 -D
    * Idaho                  -R
    * Illinois               -D
    * Indiana                -R
    * Iowa                   -D
    * Kansas                 -R
    * Kentucky               -R
    * Louisiana              -R
    * Maine                  -D
    * Maryland               -D
    * Massachusetts          -D
    * Michigan               -D
    * Minnesota              -D
    * Mississippi            -R
    * Missouri               -R
    * Montana                -R
    * Nebraska               -R
    * Nevada                 -D
    * New Hampshire          -D
    * New Jersey             -D
    * New Mexico             -D
    * New York               -D
    * North Carolina         -R
    * North Dakota           -R
    * Ohio                   -D
    * Oklahoma               -R
    * Oregon                 -D
    * Pennsylvania           -D
    * Rhode Island           -D
    * South Carolina         -R
    * South Dakota           -R
    * Tennessee              -R
    * Texas                  -R
    * Utah                   -R
    * Vermont                -D
    * Virginia               -D
    * Washington             -D
    * West Virginia          -R
    * Wisconsin              -D
    * Wyoming                -R

Popular vote to four figures 5.359
 
  • #15
Code:
    * Alabama                -R 
    * Alaska                 -R
    * Arizona                -R
    * Arkansas               -R
    * California             -D
    * Colorado               -D
    * Connecticut            -D
    * Delaware               -D
    * District of Columbia   -D
    * Florida                -R
    * Georgia                -R
    * Hawaii                 -D
    * Idaho                  -R
    * Illinois               -D
    * Indiana                -D
    * Iowa                   -D
    * Kansas                 -R
    * Kentucky               -R
    * Louisiana              -R
    * Maine                  -D
    * Maryland               -D
    * Massachusetts          -D
    * Michigan               -D
    * Minnesota              -D
    * Mississippi            -R
    * Missouri               -D
    * Montana                -R
    * Nebraska               -R
    * Nevada                 -D
    * New Hampshire          -D
    * New Jersey             -D
    * New Mexico             -D
    * New York               -D
    * North Carolina         -D
    * North Dakota           -R
    * Ohio                   -D
    * Oklahoma               -R
    * Oregon                 -D
    * Pennsylvania           -D
    * Rhode Island           -D
    * South Carolina         -R
    * South Dakota           -R
    * Tennessee              -R
    * Texas                  -R
    * Utah                   -R
    * Vermont                -D
    * Virginia               -D
    * Washington             -D
    * West Virginia          -R
    * Wisconsin              -D
    * Wyoming                -R

Obama wins popular vote by 6.759%
 
  • #16
Code:
    * Alabama                R 
    * Alaska                 R 
    * Arizona                R
    * Arkansas               R
    * California             D
    * Colorado               D
    * Connecticut            D
    * Delaware               D
    * District of Columbia   D
    * Florida                D
    * Georgia                R
    * Hawaii                 D
    * Idaho                  R
    * Illinois               D
    * Indiana                R
    * Iowa                   D
    * Kansas                 R
    * Kentucky               R
    * Louisiana              R
    * Maine                  D
    * Maryland               D
    * Massachusetts          D
    * Michigan               D
    * Minnesota              D
    * Mississippi            R
    * Missouri               D
    * Montana                R
    * Nebraska               R
    * Nevada                 D
    * New Hampshire          D
    * New Jersey             D
    * New Mexico             D
    * New York               D
    * North Carolina         D
    * North Dakota           R
    * Ohio                   D
    * Oklahoma               R
    * Oregon                 D
    * Pennsylvania           D
    * Rhode Island           D
    * South Carolina         R 
    * South Dakota           R
    * Tennessee              R
    * Texas                  R
    * Utah                   R
    * Vermont                D
    * Virginia               D
    * Washington             D
    * West Virginia          R
    * Wisconsin              D
    * Wyoming                R

Obama by 7.200%.
 
  • #17
Code:
    * Alabama                R 
    * Alaska                 R 
    * Arizona                D
    * Arkansas               R
    * California             D
    * Colorado               D
    * Connecticut            D
    * Delaware               D
    * District of Columbia   D
    * Florida                D
    * Georgia                D
    * Hawaii                 D
    * Idaho                  R
    * Illinois               D
    * Indiana                D
    * Iowa                   D
    * Kansas                 R
    * Kentucky               R
    * Louisiana              R
    * Maine                  D
    * Maryland               D
    * Massachusetts          D
    * Michigan               D
    * Minnesota              D
    * Mississippi            R
    * Missouri               D
    * Montana                D
    * Nebraska               R
    * Nevada                 D
    * New Hampshire          D
    * New Jersey             D
    * New Mexico             D
    * New York               D
    * North Carolina         D
    * North Dakota           D
    * Ohio                   D
    * Oklahoma               R
    * Oregon                 D
    * Pennsylvania           D
    * Rhode Island           D
    * South Carolina         R 
    * South Dakota           R
    * Tennessee              R
    * Texas                  R
    * Utah                   R
    * Vermont                D
    * Virginia               D
    * Washington             D
    * West Virginia          R
    * Wisconsin              D
    * Wyoming                R

Bonus: Obama by at least 10.000% of popular vote
 
  • #18
Code:
    * Alabama                R .
    * Alaska                 R .
    * Arizona                R .
    * Arkansas               R .
    * California             D .
    * Colorado               D .
    * Connecticut            D .
    * Delaware               D .
    * District of Columbia   D .
    * Florida                D .
    * Georgia                R .
    * Hawaii                 D .
    * Idaho                  R .
    * Illinois               D .
    * Indiana                R .
    * Iowa                   D .
    * Kansas                 R .
    * Kentucky               R .
    * Louisiana              R .
    * Maine                  D .
    * Maryland               D .
    * Massachusetts          D .
    * Michigan               D .
    * Minnesota              D .
    * Mississippi            R .
    * Missouri               D .
    * Montana                R .
    * Nebraska               R .
    * Nevada                 D .
    * New Hampshire          D .
    * New Jersey             D .
    * New Mexico             D .
    * New York               D .
    * North Carolina         D .
    * North Dakota           R .
    * Ohio                   D .
    * Oklahoma               R .
    * Oregon                 D .
    * Pennsylvania           D .
    * Rhode Island           D .
    * South Carolina         R .
    * South Dakota           R .
    * Tennessee              R .
    * Texas                  R .
    * Utah                   R .
    * Vermont                D .
    * Virginia               D .
    * Washington             D .
    * West Virginia          R .
    * Wisconsin              D .
    * Wyoming                R .

Obama by 6.273% [/QUOTE]
 
  • #19
Something extra, just to pass the time until the results come in:

How big do you think voter turnout will prove to be (as a fraction of the eligible voters)?

Historically (see green line) ...
http://elections.gmu.edu/images/turnout.jpg [Broken]​

1908 had a record 66% turnout. Will we see a bigger number this year?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #20
Gokul43201 said:
Something extra, just to pass the time until the results come in:

How big do you think voter turnout will prove to be (as a fraction of the eligible voters)?

Historically (see green line) ...
http://elections.gmu.edu/images/turnout.jpg [Broken]​

1908 had a record 66% turnout. Will we see a bigger number this year?

It's important to note the steep incline in voter turnout since 1996, which is a positive sign.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #21
Gokul43201 said:
1908 had a record 66% turnout. Will we see a bigger number this year?

They are thinking that there will be about 140 M voters. Of something like 220 M that looks like about 64% on your chart that I think represents voters as a percentage of Voting age population.

But I think Registered voters is only about 170 M which means that 82.3% of those will be necessary to get to the 64% of the voting age population.
 
  • #22
What does the VEP turnout rate stand for?
 
  • #23
VAP = voting age population
VEP = voting eligible population

Some members of the VAP set are ineligible to vote (convicted felons in most states, etc.).
 
  • #24
LightbulbSun said:
It's important to note the steep incline in voter turnout since 1996, which is a positive sign.
Thanks to Rove, Mehlman and Trippi, to name a few key figures.
 
  • #25
LightbulbSun said:
What does the VEP turnout rate stand for?

Voting eligible population.

Wikipedia said:
¹ The voting age population includes all persons age 18 and over as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, which necessarily includes a significant number of persons ineligible to vote, such as non-citizens, felons, and the mentally incompetent. The actual number of eligible voters is somewhat lower, and the number of registered voters is lower still. The number of non-citizens in 1994 was approximately 13 million, and in 1996, felons numbered around 1.3 million, so it can be estimated that around 7-10% of the voting age population is ineligible to vote.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election#Voter_turnout
 
  • #26
Based upon my election game predictions I have D= 402 R= 136.
 
  • #27
I think LowlyPion and I probably came the closest, although I think I might be closer on the popular vote I think he has more states right than I do so far.
 
  • #28
I got 100% correct, with the two tied states.
 
  • #29
I'm at a 100% for called states. I'm probably right on Missouri (McCain) and Indiana (Obama). North Carolina will probably go the wrong way for me (I picked McCain).
 
  • #30
My feeling is that the country won this game.

Let's give the game ball to America.
 
  • #31
Looks like all states have been finally called (at least sort of). The table below lists the final outcomes. MO goes to McCain and NC to Obama. Ignore Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district.

Code:
    * Alabama                R 
    * Alaska                 R 
    * Arizona                R 
    * Arkansas               R 
    * California             D 
    * Colorado               D 
    * Connecticut            D 
    * Delaware               D 
    * District of Columbia   D 
    * Florida                D 
    * Georgia                R 
    * Hawaii                 D 
    * Idaho                  R 
    * Illinois               D 
    * Indiana                D
    * Iowa                   D 
    * Kansas                 R 
    * Kentucky               R 
    * Louisiana              R 
    * Maine                  D 
    * Maryland               D 
    * Massachusetts          D 
    * Michigan               D 
    * Minnesota              D 
    * Mississippi            R 
    * Missouri               R
    * Montana                R 
    * Nebraska               R 
    * Nevada                 D 
    * New Hampshire          D 
    * New Jersey             D 
    * New Mexico             D 
    * New York               D 
    * North Carolina         D 
    * North Dakota           R 
    * Ohio                   D 
    * Oklahoma               R 
    * Oregon                 D 
    * Pennsylvania           D 
    * Rhode Island           D 
    * South Carolina         R 
    * South Dakota           R 
    * Tennessee              R 
    * Texas                  R 
    * Utah                   R 
    * Vermont                D 
    * Virginia               D 
    * Washington             D 
    * West Virginia          R 
    * Wisconsin              D 
    * Wyoming                R

Compare your own table with the one above and post your score. Remember, you get +1 for every correct prediction, -1 for each wrong guess and 0 for every "no comment".
 
  • #32
50 correct
1 wrong

score: 49

My guess for difference in popular vote: 4.673%
(Actual was around 6%. I was lucky I picked Obama for all the states I was tempted to leave blank. The true toss-up states shifted just a little into McCain territory.)
 
  • #33
44 Correct
6 Wrong
 
  • #34
Looks like the turnout wasn't the massive record breaker expected - although participation was up among young people, african-americans and democrats it was down among republlicans.
 
  • #35
Okay, it didn't take long to count, so here are the scores:

Code:
phoenixy       48 - 3 = 45
BobG           50 - 1 = 49
LightbulbSun   44 - 7 = 37
check          47 - 4 = 43
cyrus          (0-50)!~-10[sup]65[/sup]
Evo            49 - 2 = 47
vociferous     44 - 7 = 37    
Orbital Power  49 - 2 = 47
cristo         49 - 2 = 47
Ivan Seeking   49 - 2 = 47
Astronuc       46 - 5 = 41
LowlyPion      49 - 2 = 47

If I haven't made any mistakes in my quick count, this makes BobG the winner.

Sir BobG. I dub thee: Electoral Geek 2008.

Also, just for fun, the popular vote margin currently appears to be 6.24% (+/- 0.02%). The following are the errors in the popular vote margin estimates (a positive error indicates an overestimate of the Obama-Biden margin):

Code:
phoenixy       +2.65%
BobG           -1.57%
LightbulbSun   -1.24%
check          +2.81%
Evo            -2.40%
vociferous     -4.24%    
Orbital Power  -0.88%
cristo         +0.52%
Ivan Seeking   +0.96%
Astronuc      >+3.76%
LowlyPion      +0.03%

LowlyPion, coming incredibly close to the current popular vote margin, earns the eponym: Popular Geek 2008
 
<h2>1. What is the popular vote and why is it important?</h2><p>The popular vote refers to the total number of votes cast by the general public in an election. It is important because it reflects the overall sentiment of the population and can influence the outcome of an election.</p><h2>2. How is the popular vote calculated?</h2><p>The popular vote is calculated by adding up the total number of votes cast for each candidate in an election. The candidate with the most votes wins the popular vote.</p><h2>3. Can a candidate win the popular vote but lose the election?</h2><p>Yes, it is possible for a candidate to win the popular vote but lose the election. This is because the United States uses an electoral college system, where each state is assigned a certain number of electoral votes based on its population. In some cases, a candidate may win the popular vote but not have enough electoral votes to win the election.</p><h2>4. How accurate are predictions for the popular vote?</h2><p>Predictions for the popular vote can vary and are not always accurate. Factors such as voter turnout, swing states, and unexpected events can all impact the outcome of the popular vote.</p><h2>5. Can the popular vote be manipulated?</h2><p>While it is possible for individuals or groups to try to manipulate the popular vote, there are measures in place to prevent this from happening. These include strict voting regulations and monitoring of election processes. Additionally, the popular vote is often closely monitored and any irregularities or discrepancies are investigated.</p>

1. What is the popular vote and why is it important?

The popular vote refers to the total number of votes cast by the general public in an election. It is important because it reflects the overall sentiment of the population and can influence the outcome of an election.

2. How is the popular vote calculated?

The popular vote is calculated by adding up the total number of votes cast for each candidate in an election. The candidate with the most votes wins the popular vote.

3. Can a candidate win the popular vote but lose the election?

Yes, it is possible for a candidate to win the popular vote but lose the election. This is because the United States uses an electoral college system, where each state is assigned a certain number of electoral votes based on its population. In some cases, a candidate may win the popular vote but not have enough electoral votes to win the election.

4. How accurate are predictions for the popular vote?

Predictions for the popular vote can vary and are not always accurate. Factors such as voter turnout, swing states, and unexpected events can all impact the outcome of the popular vote.

5. Can the popular vote be manipulated?

While it is possible for individuals or groups to try to manipulate the popular vote, there are measures in place to prevent this from happening. These include strict voting regulations and monitoring of election processes. Additionally, the popular vote is often closely monitored and any irregularities or discrepancies are investigated.

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