Dismiss Notice
Join Physics Forums Today!
The friendliest, high quality science and math community on the planet! Everyone who loves science is here!

News Presidential Election Rule

  1. Mar 31, 2012 #1
    My rule for presidential elections is: If the economy is well, voters will support the empowered party. If the economy is not well, voters will support the opposing party.

    Historical Context

    1956
    Economy: Well
    Eisenhower is re-elected.

    1960
    Economy: Had a little downturn near end of decade.
    Kennedy is elected over Nixon.

    1964
    Economy: Well
    Johnson is re-elected

    1968 - Okay, Vietnam was a huge exception

    1972
    Economy: Well
    Nixon re-elected

    1976
    Economy: Concerns of inflation
    Ford loses to Carter.

    1980
    Economy: Stagflation
    Reagan defeats Carter

    1984
    Economy: Recovery
    Reagan re-elected by landslide

    1988
    Economy: Still well
    Bush succeeds Reagan.

    1992
    Economy: Unemployment increases.
    Bush, once considered unbeatable, loses to Clinton because of economic concerns.

    1996
    Economy: Well
    Clinton is re-elected

    2000
    Economy: Well
    Gore won the popular vote here.

    2004
    Economy: Recovered from post-9/11 recession
    Bush gets re-elected

    2008
    Economy: Downturn
    Obama defeats McCain. As the economy got worse, McCain's support fell.

    2012
    ?

    Essayist Paul Graham has a theory that charisma wins elections, but can any president in a bad economy be charismatic?

    Obama's approval rating fell since he could not find an instant cure to the recession.
    Reagan's approval dropped in 1983 when the economy went into a recession.

    In 2012, the economy has gotten better, though only slightly, but has not recovered. Barack Obama has a huge warchest and a Republican Party which is extremely unpopular, so he could end up being an exception to my rule.
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Mar 31, 2012 #2
    Have you considered the great depression with Roosevelt being elected time after time?
     
  4. Mar 31, 2012 #3
    Of course.

    Coolidge and Hoover were elected over a booming economy.
    Hoover lost to Roosevelt as the economy sank into the Great Depression.

    1936
    Yes, the country was in the midst of a Great Depression, but economic conditions improved and unemployment rate went down in those years, significantly, even if the nation was still in a depression.

    In 1940, the economy wasn't as bad as it was in 1929. And during WW2, the economy was booming, resulting in a 4th term.
     
  5. Apr 1, 2012 #4
    Also during World War II, people probably figured it best to leave the guy who was president in place, as opposed to bringing in someone totally new.
     
Know someone interested in this topic? Share this thread via Reddit, Google+, Twitter, or Facebook




Similar Discussions: Presidential Election Rule
  1. Presidential election 2008 (Replies: 1,241)

Loading...