Does anyone know the game http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_(party_game) ? I was trying to calculate probabilities with the assumptions that all players are dumb and slay a random person at day. Basically every night one of the good people dies and then a random one of the rest dies. So I wrote down (g=good, b=bad) P(g,b)=(g-1)/(g+b-1)*P(g-2,b)+b/(g+b-1)*P(g-1,b-1) P(g<=b)=0 P(b=0)=1 for the probability that the good people win. Now I was surprised about the non-monotonicity. In my calculations it seems for example P(g=4,b=1)>P(g=5,b=1) Have I missed something out? Why does it depend on odd/even so much? By this calculations werewolves should sometime be decreased if the number of players is increased?